Solar Panels for IPs?!

[wylie]

When we signed up to the feed in tariff which was around 52cents (cannot remember exactly - but around the 50c mark) I was quite skeptical about the "guarantee" that it would stay at that level for 20 or 25 years (cannot recall).

At the time I was just happy to be a bit green even if it cost us, but I didn't want to be green if it cost us a LOT more than not installing solar.

Nothing would surprise me and if I read in the paper tomorrow that the tariff has been changed (maybe it is a non core promise ) I will not be shocked.

But a few months ago there was something about the tariff not changing "owners" if we sold the house, so I'm guessing this is the reason they can promise such a long time at that tariff. Because statistically, not many people are going to be living in the same house as they installed the solar system into for 20 or more years.

I could be completely wrong of course, but that makes sense to me.

 

[RandR]

Plenty of states have finished the rorts. WA is just one example - Qld is another. But yet plenty of solar systems are still being sold in both states, just not quite as many as before. Recently, the declining cost of PV systems has almost keep pace with the reduction in rorts! The subsidies that remain in WA and Qld are more in the category of a slap and tickle rather than a full scale rort IMO.

PV prices have collapsed recently. In the large scale sector where I play, prices are one quarter of what they were five years ago. If they halve again (and that doesn't take much...) we are below the current real cost of daytime fossils (circa 8c per kWh). FRV recently won the Canberra auction with a 20 year offtake price of circa 18c/unit unindexed to inflation according to news reports. A figure indexed to inflation would be well below this number.

I can see this last price reduction happening in about 10 years time but in the meantime the cost of the fossils keeps increasing so I suspect crossover will actually come realistically in 5-7 years time. Many are calling 2016 but that sounds optimistic to me - the rate of price reduction in PV has to slow down a bit. But those calling 2016 have far greater credibility than myself.

Either way, there is no way solar is dying from where I'm sitting. The economies of scale combined with the improvements in technology have yielded massive cost reductions in the price of PV and to a lesser extent solar thermal. For that we have to thank the German, Spanish, US, Japanese, Chinese and (to a tiny extent) Australian rort programs!

There is no turning back now... but equally there are no PV panels on my roof just yet!

This post makes much sense. I would agree its only a matter of time until the technology snowballs to the point of actually being competitive with fossil fuel energy without being subsidised, Obviously that point is not here yet. 2016 does sound optimistic to me aswell. But one only needs to look at the continuing and rampant development of computer tech to see what can happen in a few short years. Fark my phone has more computing power then my computer of little more then a decade ago.

In regards to would a tenant be willing to pay more rent if an IP owner installs PV. If I was a tenant I would offer to pay an amount that could be justified as being worthy to me aswell. But thats me, others could have a differing opinion.

 

[wylie]

In regards to would a tenant be willing to pay more rent if an IP owner installs PV. If I was a tenant I would offer to pay an amount that could be justified as being worthy to me aswell. But thats me, others could have a differing opinion.

What would you think as a dollar figure you would pay. We have one house, mid range for Coorparoo at $440 per week. If we put at $12.5K system on the roof the interest for that per year comes to about $15 per week cost to us as landlord.

Would you pay an extra $15 per week? The tenant in that house was offered a brand new kitchen for $20 extra per week and didn't want it. I suppose it comes down to what the particular tenant wants and is happy to pay for?

Whilst she was not prepared to pay an extra $20 for a new kitchen, when she goes, we will install a new kitchen and increase the rent by $20 and get it with no issues. She was looking to pay no more than $440 and looked at houses around that price. If we put the kitchen in and advertised at $460 this tenant would probably not have even called to look at it.

If solar comes down to $5K to install, we would do it for each IP and cover the cost ourselves, maybe slap on an extra $5 to what we think we could get, but the "market value" figure for rentals is not an exact science so $5 here or there is easier to get than asking $15 extra.

At install figure of $5K I would put it in the same basket as lawn mowing. We get the lawns done at our IPs because they are big yards and are actually off-putting for most tenants. By including mowing with the rent, we get a larger pool of tenants for the houses. I suspect when prices come down on solar we would do the same.

 

[vaughan]

When we signed up to the feed in tariff which was around 52cents (cannot remember exactly - but around the 50c mark) I was quite skeptical about the "guarantee" that it would stay at that level for 20 or 25 years (cannot recall).

It'll stay at that level, sure. But while they cannot lower it, they are not under any obligation to raise it either.

 

[Dazz]

I would agree its only a matter of time until the technology snowballs to the point of actually being competitive with fossil fuel energy without being subsidised.

....yeah, I heard that argument about things running on fossil fuels being replaced when I was a small boy....

When I started primary school, I remember saying to Dad I can't wait to grow up and be able to get my own car. That was in the mid 70's during the oil shock, when fossil fuel prices were going thru the roof and people were looking left right and centre for any alternative.

Dad said "unfortunately son, when you are old enough to drive, there won't be any cars, we'll all have a little jetpack and be scooting thru the air like on that James Bond film 10 years ago."

Thunderball 1965....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4K8zz9eI4-8

I was devastated at the prospect of not being able to drive a car, but equally excited at flying thru the air on some whizz-bang contraption.

Unfortunately, Dad's prediction didn't come true, and the car in that film that Bond escapes in with his lovely assistant is essentially the same 47 years later.....same motor design, same wheels, needs a road.

Progress has been glacial.

my phone has more computing power then my computer of little more then a decade ago.

Everything compared to the computer industry is non-comparable.

Solar panels popped on rooves in the late 70's and early 80's that I remember look almost identical in shape / form and design to what is coming out now. There has been bugger all change in 30 years....because the whole show is totally uneconomic.

Computers have gone ahead in leaps and bounds, as have mobile phones, cos there is a huge bucket of money out there that people are prepared to spend to communicate more efficiently.

If you can somehow link women talking endlessly amongst themselves with solar panel development....you're onto a sure fire winner !!!

 

[Cloudy_]

Solar panels popped on rooves in the late 70's and early 80's that I remember look almost identical in shape / form and design to what is coming out now. There has been bugger all change in 30 years....because the whole show is totally uneconomic

Can't wait for the day when the govt puts $40+bn into renewable energy as opposed to stupid 'investments' like the NBN (let's not get started!)

Sad really where priorities lie sometimes... *points to US defense spending*

Ok, ok, back on topic... It appears some tenants will be happy to pay a bit more, some will look for any excuse to reduce rent. Obviously you would have more chance in higher socio-economic areas.

 

[chopstick]

It doesn't matter whether you put 1 panel or a million panels on your roof. There ain't a dollar to be made.

As I pointed out previously, the Maths in this debate is severely lacking.

Well I realise the pfit boat has sailed in victoria but I can say it was possible a bit over a year ago to get an approx $3500 return (1200 saved in power + 2300 in paid out credit) tax free annually for an outlay of about 15k. I reckon a 20% tax free ROI isnt too bad. Thats on net metering there were plenty of people who got on a gross tariff in NSW who would have done much better.

So break even is less than 5 years without factoring cost increases in power (meaning the 1200 saved figure would go up)

agreed it wasnt done for soley financial reasons, but the maths did stack up

 

[chopstick]

oops sorry that was for a ppor not an IP didnt read that important part of the question!

 

[CHAOS]

We spent 10k on a 3kw system and fortunate for us we made it before the PFIT in Vic was cut. We also spent 3K on a solar hot water - as our old electric one needed replacing - no gas available.
When first connected we had an interim meter. So we got paid 60c kw for what we generated and it cost us 22c kw for what we used and 10c between 11pm and 7am.
Then they installled the smart meter and jacked the price up. 28c and 12c .. I changed electricity companies to one that paid 66c - usage rates the same. Just opend the mail and rates have increased to 32c and 13.5c - must be that carbon tax!

.... can I get an increase on my 66c?

I have estimated it will take 5 years for us to break even/ put the 10k back in our pocket - of course this will take longer if rates keep rising.
We also have a wood heater and I have turned into an electricity Nazi. Only wash, dry, vacuum in off peak times or turn all appliances on at the same time.

I don't know where the incentive is now when current FIT rates are less than consumption rates - unless you have high environmental morals

 

[Sunfish]

I would get a better return on the little extra I paid for my Camry Hybrid, and that's with low milage.

Any of you guys with a big commute should go that way too. It's just as efficient around city lights as more open roads.

 

[EagerAchiever]

Hi All,

Interesting thread...

I will throw a few items out there for discussion

Do the people take into consideration the amount of pollution created when manufacturing the solar system system itself? Plastics, aluminum, silicon etc?


P.V cell efficiency unfortunately hasn't improved inline with technologies such as computing and is quite expensive currently.

Perhaps this may change but market penetration is still quite low in comparison to the other type of power generation around.

Some manufacturers are claiming 20-25 year warranties on their products (panels) Inverters are less and are more prone to failure. The effective life of the manufactured components are lab tested and the effective life calculated based on research not actual failure analysis for the warranty offered. Some will say that this type of warranty and life prediction happens all the time across many industries and yes is does but when your panels and inverter start to fail and the warranty is not being honored due to various reasons will you have the thousands to invest to repair the system? The panel warranty won't be honored due to damage cause by inclement weather either. Can anyone offer any experiences on their panel condition when those hail storms ht a few year ago and damaged peoples cars, did the panels get damaged?

Are people aware that the panel doesn't deliver its full power rating for it's entire life and that it decreases over time? Panels also don't like to operate when they are hot also reducing output as panel heat increases. Lab testing is carried out at 25 deg C.

A comment was made before about these companies even being around in 20-25 year to honor the implied warranty. I doubt the majority even will be. Even BP has decided to remove itself from the solar market and they once were quite a dominant player.

Average efficiency ranges between 14-18% currently.

I have a 1.5KW system on my investment property which came with the land when I purchased it. I do like the idea of power generated from the sun but until the efficiency increases and cost per watt decreases the numbers don't do it for me especially with the effective life being a calculated number coupled with the government being able to change policy overnight of late is of concern to me. The only feed in tariff that the system qualifies for is the on being offered by Synergy which from memory is 8.4 cents for net feed in (REBS). This hardly makes a dent in the capital investment should I have made one (purchased stand alone).

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/solar_timeline.pdf

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/PVeff(rev120820).jpg

http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9025019&contentId=7046515

http://www.uq.edu.au/solarenergy/pv-array/uq-pv-modules

http://www.synergy.net.au/docs/SYNB1058_REBS_Price_Shedule_DL_web.pdf

 

[Dazz]

We also have a wood heater

....yes, and if you have an endless supply of mallee roots, that's a reasonably cheap option to heat the house.....and stove if you are like Depreciator and into wood stoves.

I don't know where the incentive is now when current FIT rates are less than consumption rates - unless you have high environmental morals

...and they come with very high capital costs that no-one wishes to speak about.

In my current job, I speak with people every day about power prices. Only the very wealthy can afford to pay extra for their power, over and above what they are being charged currently. Most are hurting badly.

The thought of having to dig even deeper and pay even more than what they are being charged now is sure-fire lunacy.....but that seems to be the general thrust of the Green agenda. It may try to grab the moral high ground, but it sure ain't what the majority of folks want.

 

[Dazz]

Do the people take into consideration the amount of pollution created when manufacturing the solar system system itself? Plastics, aluminum, silicon etc?

I was going to mention something about it, but thought better of it.....you'll just get yourself into a big tangle with the Greener folks on here, and that'll go nowhere....so best not to not raise it.

Average efficiency ranges between 14-18% currently.

Wow - is it that low ?? We did a short course with this in high school back in the late 80's, and maximum efficiency figures of 32% were bandied about. At the time I thought that was pathetically low, but apparently there are physical limitations as to why it can't be higher. I thought it was a waste at 32%.

Is it really as low as 14 to 18% ??

 

[Munchkin]

We are now planning on installing a turbine, they are apparently much more efficient at producing power.

 

[Sunfish]

If I really felt the urge I would have a solar panel driven UPS running a miniMac server which networks our 'puters [also on the UPS] and the cordless phones.

But it's easier and cheaper to just whinge when the power goes off. It's all just cracking a walnut with a sledgehammer.

 

[wylie]

Do the people take into consideration the amount of pollution created when manufacturing the solar system system itself? Plastics, aluminum, silicon etc?

Once the system is made and in place, we are (hopefully and ultimately) allowing less coal to be burnt, so I figure perhaps it balances out.

Some manufacturers are claiming 20-25 year warranties on their products (panels) Inverters are less and are more prone to failure. The effective life of the manufactured components are lab tested and the effective life calculated based on research not actual failure analysis for the warranty offered.

We could have paid about $9K for similar sized system using Chinese panels and cheap inverter. We chose a German system instead, hoping that better quality might give us longer life, at least until it pays itself off. We also went with a company that has over 20 (25?) years in the business. Hopefully they stay around. We also were told some companies require the customer to send the panel back to the country of origin for fixing, so we avoided those companies.

Are people aware that the panel doesn't deliver its full power rating for it's entire life and that it decreases over time? Panels also don't like to operate when they are hot also reducing output as panel heat increases. Lab testing is carried out at 25 deg C.

We were told all this by the salesman. He also told us that too much heat lessens the output, and said having some air gap between roof and panel helps with this, but in Queensland it can be a problem.

I had looked at solar before, got too confused and decided to leave it until it is cheaper and easier to do. Luckily we were chased up and the salesman who came to our house was honest with the shortcomings and we asked him a lot of questions, all of which he answered to our satisfaction.

I was ready the whole time for the hard sell, but there was NO hard sell. We thought about it for a few days and decided to do it now. If panels keep coming down in price, at lease we are locked in to the higher tariff so I guess we won't lose much, if anything.

I just will be happy if we pay back the cost of the system in about ten years or so with the savings from the system.

 

[Sunfish]

Soft sell reigns!!

 

[wylie]

Soft sell reigns!!

No soft sell at all. Just a really honest man who answered frankly, including the good and the bad.

No soft sell, no hard sell. Perfect.

 

[Sunfish]

No soft sell at all. Just a really honest man who answered frankly, including the good and the bad.

No soft sell, no hard sell. Perfect.

I rest my case.

 

[Sunfish]

OK Wylie, bit tough. I am not questioning whether or not you were offered a good deal. peace.

I am questioning whether or not what you did is environmentally sustainable long term and how you feel about "subsidy bludging", "middle class welfare", "dole bludging", "tax avoidance", "franked dividends" etc.

If you go to the trough, you have no moral right to question others who do so as well.