Somersoft Economic Confidence Survey - December 2008

[MarkB]

One simple question:

Do you think the economy will get better or worse over the next 12 months?

I'm thinking that SS needs it's own economic confidence survey. It's all anonymous (unless you choose to post comments such as I have below).

The question asked and the options available are exactly the same as used by Tony Alexander (Chief Economist of the Bank of NZ) who compiles one of NZ's most respected confidence survey's every month.

Could be interesting to see how the results evolve over time.

EDIT: NB - There is no right or wrong answer. This isn't an economic forecasting competition. The aim is to measure sentiment.

 

[MarkB]

Fwiw, I voted worse, mostly because I think Australia will go into recession in 2009.

However, I do not envisage a long or deep recession, but in terms of the overall economy I expect things to be a bit tougher than 2008.

2008 has been the annus horribilis of the equities markets, but I am expecting they will begin a rebound by mid 2009 (even with some profit downgrades the earnings on offer at the depressed prices will be very attractive).

Imho, as the wider economy picks up (late 2009), the property market should follow.

 

[andrew_de_a]

i highly doubt anyone believes that the economy will improve over the next 12 months

 

[MarkB]

Andrew,

If that is the case, and the results will speak for themselves, it will give us a nice low base to start the SS Economic Confidence Index off with, won't it.

 

[sparky23]

I am always the optimist and like to be positive, so as usual I shall go against the grain, probably because I cannot imagine a worse year than the one I have just endured!

 

[MarkB]

I can see where you're coming from Sparky.

Well, as I work in wealth management, when I answered Tony Alexander's survey this morning my comment was:

"2008 was the annus horribilis for the wealth management industry. 2009 has to be better. Surely it cannot be any worse."

Gawd I hope not.

 

[lizzie]

i believe it will get worse for the country, and then better by the end of 2009 ... but for me personally? i think it will get better.

i think it will be a real mix all round so voted for more of the same - taking the middle ground. better for some, worse for some, no change for some ...

 

[BV]

I am always the optimist and like to be positive, so as usual I shall go against the grain!

me too, I don't know about other states but NSW being the hardest hit state by interest rates had it tough for a long time and we've managed ok.

I see recovery from now on and I see increased activity in the business sector as well.
The automotive industry is hurting atm but it's not that big in NSW anyway so it can't shrink any more here.

IMHO

 

[MarkB]

One thing I perhaps should have added earlier - there is no right or wrong answer. This isn't an economic forecasting competition. The aim is to measure sentiment.

 

[PrimeCommercial]

I agree with you Mark B. I think the Economy as a whole will get worse next year, how much worse depends on too many external factors to tell.

 

[grossreal]

hi all
worse for me and from early 2009
interest rate will go down another 1/2% and still it will get worse

 

[boomtown]

I voted better. Because the next six months will be awful. But by june we will be starting the long slow climb back up.

 

[willair]

EDIT: NB - There is no right or wrong answer. This isn't an economic forecasting competition. The aim is to measure sentiment.

Good post Mark,for me i voted better,given that it is not predictable you can look at all the info that is out there ,and use the "almost right mindset"and still get it wrong and still miss by 100%..imho willair..
'"

 

[Bargain Hunter]

After the rate reductions, reduced pressure on oil prices and a commitment from the federal government to bail out the incompetent NSW State Government things appear to be heading in the right direction.

Predictions are that interest rates will continue to fall at the start of next year, this will buoy people's confidence and encourage spending. More spending less stress, and the market moves upwards.

Debbie and I are so confident that we are lining up our ducks to spend on property but this time a new PPOR.

Andrew

 

[weg]

I'd say 08 will be hallmarked as the uglier year because of the sharemaket fallout and high interest rates but I do think the economy will deteriorate further before it stablizes.

I don't think we'll see an actual boom for a few more years either more like slower steady growth but not for another year or two.

I feel things will get worse in 09 as we more than likely head into recession and see an increase in unemployment.

I do think though that those that minimize their risks, and are not in the 'at risk for redundancy' areas of employment will get through this period relativley unscathed.

The lowering of interest rates have provided much needed relief to OO and PI and will continue to do so throughout this downturn.

Some will actually do very well during this time too so not all D and G.

 

[ziggy2214]

I don't think the economic situation will get any worse.
December will be a good month for retailers and IMO things will get better from then on.

I am actually surprised to see the poll results.
I would have thought that the falling interest rates would have boosted our confidence by now, they certainly have changed my situation and I am in buying mode again.
Its all good

 

[dave99]

I think things will get worse next year. Just the big 4 banks alone are sure to lay off at least 1000-2000 jobs each in the next few months.

Spending has only just started to fall off and I think there are significant job losses to come. GDP has already fallen to 0.1% last quarter. I just hope it won't be too bad. Judging from previous recessions, things won't improve for 2 years - meaning 2009 and 2010 will basically go sideways.

The US is far worse, so it will be interesting to see how far it affects Australia.

 

[spark]

2008 was bad enough for retail business, for the sharemarkets, for property and towards the end also for interest rates (for the cashed up), the decline was very fast and ruthless. Can 2009 be worse? I don't think so, how worse can it be?!?
So I voted the same, with hope of revival towards the end of 2009, or worst case 2010.

 

[GoAnna!]

I think it will be worse for the population in general as job losses begin to bite and others feeling uncertain about the future. I think until now much of the population thought the subprime was purely a news item rather than something that was impacting them personally.

For me personally I think things will improve with interest rates being by far our biggest expense. Our living expenses are also falling so we are feeling ready to spluge a little for the first time in years.

 

[topcropper]

The real economy has hardly been effected yet. The share market predicted what's coming.


As for me, the last cropping season, at the finish of harvest in May 08 was the best ever, and I doubt I will ever see another like it in my lifetime in regards to profitability.

In contrast, this year could very well be the worst, and it has nothing to do with drought or flood or pest or disease. Simply crashing commodity prices.


See ya's.