Soros says sell gold

Hooray said:
Is that really a sustainable bull market?
Click to expand...
No bull market goes on forever, this Gold bull will be no different.

This was an interesting article I read recently on scrap and general demand:
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/ETFs-physical-investments-drive-gold-market-24195-3-1.html

It does support that scrap selling can have an effect on the market.

At the same time as we have an increase in scrap gold selling though we have a decrease in selling by central banks and infact they have moved to net buyers...

Hooray said:
I have no idea how much gold should be, because I can't quantify the demand and supply. No one NEEDS gold, it earns no income, there is tons of supply out there (because it doesn't disappear), and it's actually pretty useless. Longer term, supply doesn't even need to come from mines: 5000 years of gold is lying in vaults and sock drawers.
Click to expand...
It's a store of wealth in uncertain times and with sovereign debt problems, increase in deficit spending and general carelessness of many countries with their recent money/credit supply, a safe haven like Gold seems like a reasonable place to be.

It's difficult to put a "target" price on Gold, one can use many measuring sticks, some popular ones include a target ratio against silver, a target ratio against the dow, a target ratio of a country's supply vs their money supply, a target of the inflation adjusted high from 1980 using official stats or shadow stats and I'm sure there are others. I think a well timed exit from the Gold bull will be something that many miss, perhaps I will too.

By the way Hooray, are you going to clarify that Hunt Brothers comment?

GreatPig said:
A double bottom is not "formed" until prices have risen back above the central high point.
Click to expand...
Thanks for catching GP, I missed the word 'potentially' in that line.

Graemsay said:
Hobo-Jo, looking at gold in inflation adjusted terms, it's nowhere near its 1980 high, but it is inline with other spikes in its value.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/gold-REAL-dollars.gif
I'd be inclined to sell up because it's still a strongly rising market, and could well turn. I think that there might be better long term buys elsewhere.
Click to expand...
Really Graemsay? Government stats? Try with ShadowStats ;)
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/FreeGoldSilverSSCPI.php

What are you looking at for a better long term buy? I believe some agriculture based stocks/futures could do well over the next few years, but find it easier to concentrate on one sector to find the outstanding performers and most undervalued stocks.
 
hobo-jo;631622) Trogdor said:
Yes, but aren't you doing the exact opposite of this?...

ie. putting 95 per cent of your $ cash into it?

I thought 5 per cent would be the more sensible number?
Click to expand...
 
Hobo-Jo, I'm not sure if there's a lot of value out there right now.

The way I see it is that the US and UK governments have pumped in a vast amount of money into the banking system in order to stabilise it after September 2008. This has been through both quantitive easing and cutting interest rates to near zero.

The trouble is that the banks have been carrying on business as usual, but this time having an implicit government guarantee. So there's a wall of money chasing assets. Hence the V-shaped recovery in shares, possibly house prices in the UK, and bankster bonuses.

I'm not sure where I'd invest right now, and I'm not looking at the markets in any great depth.

Some commentators think that the UK FTSE Index is around fair value, other think that it's a bit too high. But that might be a reasonable punt, particularly with the Pound being so weak. When the Pound picks up strength again it'd boost returns, but that might be a case of buy and hold for quite a few years.

Incidentally, my general theory in investing is that it's extremely hard to beat the market consistently. So stick it into a broad based (but cheap) tracker.

If the Economist's figures are right, I think that Japanese property could be a fantastic contrarian investment. (As I said above.) But there would be big cultural and language barriers, and it could take an awfully long time to come good.
 
JIT said:
Yes, but aren't you doing the exact opposite of this?...
ie. putting 95 per cent of your $ cash into it?
I thought 5 per cent would be the more sensible number?
Click to expand...
Who are you on CC? Are you 6IJT?

As I said, I think Gold should form a small part of a portfolio in a long term plan (e.g. over 20 years), but do see it as a short to medium term trade/investment (3-5 years). To take advantage of the short to medium term I am very heavily invested. Most of the stocks I am invested in I work out to be undervalued even at today's Gold/Silver prices, so even if they just leveled off around here I think I will do well, but I am expecting the bull run to continue and enter the 3rd phase of a bull market where the general public takes a keen interest and sends the price parabolic for a short time. This may just be driven by continued gains in value or may be driven by a currency crisis...

If you thought property was in a position to make huge gains over a 3-5 year period as it was undervalued, would you only put 5% of your capital into it?
 
hobo-jo said:
Who are you on CC? Are you 6IJT?

As I said, I think Gold should form a small part of a portfolio in a long term plan (e.g. over 20 years), but do see it as a short to medium term trade/investment (3-5 years). To take advantage of the short to medium term I am very heavily invested. Most of the stocks I am invested in I work out to be undervalued even at today's Gold/Silver prices, so even if they just leveled off around here I think I will do well, but I am expecting the bull run to continue and enter the 3rd phase of a bull market where the general public takes a keen interest and sends the price parabolic for a short time. This may just be driven by continued gains in value or may be driven by a currency crisis...

If you thought property was in a position to make huge gains over a 3-5 year period as it was undervalued, would you only put 5% of your capital into it?
Click to expand...

Of what interest is gold to the general public, compared to bricks 'n mortar and blue chip shares?

Is the comparison between gold as an investment vehicle, compared to property and shares a valid one?

What's the yield on gold?

What about the difference the use of leverage will make on ones investment returns?

Is your un-leveraged gold play likely to outperform modestly leveraged property or share based investment strategies?

Thanks.
 
JIT said:
What's the yield on gold?
Click to expand...
What's the yield on leveraged property (after costs) if you bought today?

JIT said:
Is your un-leveraged gold play likely to outperform modestly leveraged property or share based investment strategies?
Click to expand...
My investment is a share based investment strategy, just in a particular sector. I don't really see the value in answering the question, because it is too broad.

JIT, back to the original thread topic, do you think Gold is in a bubble? If so in what (USD, another currency, against another commodity?) and for for what reasons?

This video provides an interesting look at specifically the US situation and their Gold vs Base Money: http://goldsilver.com/player/id/67/cID/2/
I don't expect that Gold will reach $15,000, but interesting none the less.
 
I have far more than 5% in gold (metal) and miners but that is really by default. I just see the risk/return out of balance across the investment spectrum so have no leverage in the share market. I have sold everything but my precious metal interests. This is a strategic thing.

There are two completely opposite views about gold and the proponents of each should simply agree to disagree and not try to correct each other. It is true that 99% of the gold ever mined still exists somewhere but that would only fill a couple of olympic sized swimming pools which is not much, spread around the world's population. It is true that a Roman senator could outfit himself for an oz of gold, and a gentleman could still do so today, so it is a storage of value.

Hobo says everyone should hold a little gold and I agree, but that depends on your view on the macro level, and many here don't seem to research that. I believe a few weeks of living expenses in small denomination Au/Ag coins should in in your bunker beside the batteries, baked beans and bougelet. But the optimists would never see the need for a bunker or emergency supplies, so never the twain shall meet.

If you never need them, your coin collection will be popular with the kids though. :D:D
 
i just got a thinking.

Soros is one of The Eleven.

If he says sell gold, I would be waiting with cash for the 850 spot price and buy like crazy.

That way, when The Eleven buy it all at that price you'll be in the same position as them - which is no bad thing.

This is the market dump of gold. Bugger repossessing gold, just make investors dump it and then buy it back off them and ludicrously low prices. No collusion, no politically damaging action - just greed and fear in the market as per normal.

hmmm......
 
Sunfish said:
Hobo says everyone should hold a little gold and I agree, but that depends on your view on the macro level, and many here don't seem to research that. I believe a few weeks of living expenses in small denomination Au/Ag coins should in in your bunker beside the batteries, baked beans and bougelet. But the optimists would never see the need for a bunker or emergency supplies, so never the twain shall meet.

If you never need them, your coin collection will be popular with the kids though. :D:D
Click to expand...

the 5 "B's"

Bullion
Bunker
Batteries
Baked Beans
Bougelet
 
For those saying you can't get leverage on gold, I get 50:1 leverage because it's basically in a currency trading account, but they also let you trade in gold and silver. I'd love it if they added oil to that list.

http://www.fxtrade.com
 
I am not to sure of recent updates, but the gold ETF (GLD) is the fourth-largest single position at Soros Fund Management. So take what you want from that.
 
Well after hanging around $1080 for a week or so, it's back to $1115.

I wonder if I'll ever see it under $1000 again in my life time.
 
abra said:
I am not to sure of recent updates, but the gold ETF (GLD) is the fourth-largest single position at Soros Fund Management. So take what you want from that.
Click to expand...
Very interesting abra, speaks for itself really. Where did you get that info? Is it online?
 
As always, do some checking before trusting anything the media vomits up. Journalism these days is all 'cut and paste', or pushes the current government BS.
 
More to ponder.....dowgold ratio

The Dow/gold ratio contrasts economic growth and prosperity with inflation and an undermined currency. Despite some commentators opining that the US economy is recovering, the fixed income holdings of the US Government and its on and off-balance sheet liabilities (such as Social Security and Medicare) will prevent the Federal Reserve from tightening monetary policy enough to control inflation. As a result, inflation will outperform economic growth and lead to a decline in the Dow/gold ratio, providing significant upside for gold relative to stocks regardless of whether they meet at 5,000, 10,000 or 15,000.

15434_a.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ruby
The Player Interview
Replies
0
Views
11K
Ruby
Ruby
Back
Top