The GFC occurred in that 6 year period you nominated, the market crashed from 6873 down to 3052.
We obviously have different definitions of a market moving sideways.
State of the ASX200
- Thread starter D.T.
- Start date
The GFC occurred in that 6 year period you nominated, the market crashed from 6873 down to 3052.
We obviously have different definitions of a market moving sideways.
Intrinsic value says that many shares are trading above their intrinsic value.
However intrinsic value invests based on absolute values (ie the underlying value of the shares) rather than a relative value (ie the value of a share relative to other investment opportunities).
Intrinsic value is watching markets closely because of the difference between intrinsic value and share prices, however intrinsic value is NOT moving to cash.
Instead intrinsic value is sitting back and watching his portfolio grow and grow because of relative value thinking. Intrinsic value will move very quickly to the exit if volatility increases.
Intrinsic value is not buying in this environment, just letting Mr Market do its thing.
This is the advantage of super, you don't have to worry about differential tax treatment.
Intrinsic value invests most of his funds in his private accounts (because he doesn't want to hang around till 60yrs+ to access the money).
This means that intrinsic value has to worry about capital gains tax implications.
With a 50% marginal tax rate (give or take a % or 2), intrinsic value has to try to hold for 12 months to get that tax rate halved.
relative vs absolute valuations.
current absolute valuations against future absolute valuations.
That is the question my dear Watson.
I subscribe ( or should I say my SMSF) subscribes to an information service and we received a warning last night , of a potential drop if certain levels were breached. The author uses Elliot wave as well as your more typical TA . I think there is similar chats on forums at the moment .
So it could go up or could go down .....
I think people are tightening their stops at the moment .
On a more sinister level I often find I start thinking about getting back at the market , just as it turns down
Cliff
Are you investing or trading based on Elliot wave theory.
Let me give some people some free advice.
You are all retail. If it all it takes is Elliot Wave theory, think for a moment, don't you think Wall Street with all its money behind it, wouldn't employ PHD staff who are much smarter than most of us.
Investing is NOT two dimensional.
That's why people like Buffett out perform again and again and again.
No No No
Japan intrinsic value was so far below share market prices 30 yrs ago that it was a no brainer.
In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term its a weighing machine.
No I don't have 25yrs to ride it out, you wouldn't have seen intrinsic value anywhere near the Japanese stockmarket 25 yrs ago. Intrinsic value would have run his proprietory valuation tools and would have moved to greener pastures.
Even now decades later intrinsic value looks at the intrinsic value of the Japanese market and thinks that its at fair, to reasonably good value, but nothing too exciting.
Stock stop losses in the long term are only for traders. For intelligent investors who have time to watch the market frequently, an Evans approach can result in increased returns for the intelligent investor.
Intelligent crystal ball strategy for those that don't have too much time:
ALWAYS INVEST WHERE INTRINSIC VALUE IS LESS THAN SHARE PRICE AND THE UNDERLYING COMPANY IS A SECULAR STABLE OR GROWTH COMPANY
Don't know how many people will be able to interpret this last comment, but if you want real passive wealth creation without watching the stock market every day, I strongly suggest figuring it out.
RHC for nearly 10 years, SRX a bit less.
Ramsay Health RHC has been amazing. Just one steady growth company yet it's always appeared to be expensive. I only bought in after having a nice experience at one of their hospitals. Check it out on hotcopper!!! There is hardly a single post about it! A completely forgotten stock as far as the traders go.
I've had plenty of dogs too but who wants to talk about them eh?
See ya's.
No No No
Japan intrinsic value was so far below share market prices 30 yrs ago that it was a no brainer.
In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term its a weighing machine.
No I don't have 25yrs to ride it out, you wouldn't have seen intrinsic value anywhere near the Japanese stockmarket 25 yrs ago. Intrinsic value would have run his proprietory valuation tools and would have moved to greener pastures.
Even now decades later intrinsic value looks at the intrinsic value of the Japanese market and thinks that its at fair, to reasonably good value, but nothing too exciting.
Stock stop losses in the long term are only for traders. For intelligent investors who have time to watch the market frequently, an Evans approach can result in increased returns for the intelligent investor.
Intelligent crystal ball strategy for those that don't have too much time:
ALWAYS INVEST WHERE INTRINSIC VALUE IS LESS THAN SHARE PRICE AND THE UNDERLYING COMPANY IS A SECULAR STABLE OR GROWTH COMPANY
Don't know how many people will be able to interpret this last comment, but if you want real passive wealth creation without watching the stock market every day, I strongly suggest figuring it out.
Thanks for your insights on intrinsic value, Intrinsic Value. How does one calculate such?
ALWAYS INVEST WHERE INTRINSIC VALUE IS LESS THAN SHARE PRICE AND THE UNDERLYING COMPANY IS A SECULAR STABLE OR GROWTH COMPANY
Don't know how many people will be able to interpret this last comment, but if you want real passive wealth creation without watching the stock market every day, I strongly suggest figuring it out.
Don't know how often and successfully you can continuously be able to invest when intrinsic value is less than the share price.
But regarding buying a company that is secular stable or growth company. Easiest way IMHO is to make that company the cross section of each and every publicly listed company (i.e. buy regularly (in disciplined fashion) index funds) and re-invest the dividends.
Long term (15-20yrs) you can't go wrong.
To give an example of the DOW
From wikipedia
Yesterday, the DOW closed at 15191
Cheers,
Oracle.
I have mostly a long term view so blips like these aren't something I worry too much about.
Something I noticed yesterday, though, was that a couple of stock adviser types took the opportunity to contact me.
They applied the hard sell technique using the US Government discretionary spending shut down in an attempt to unsettle me. Telling me I needed their services and tried to sell me a subscription.
It's probably something brokers do too to make some brokerage in times such as these.
So how will the US shutdown affect things. They say if its sort term, not much will change?
I know our CBA shares have just taken a $3.00 hit.
I know our CBA shares have just taken a $3.00 hit.
there are 3 possible outcomes when you sell or buy an investment:
1. It appreciates in value over time
2. It stays the same value over time
3. it loses value over time.
you have a 66.66% chance of getting it wrong. Education reduces that risk.
However The more times you buy and sell the more likely you are to get it wrong.
If you are an investor:
Determine how much of your portfolio you would like to allocate to the share market and remain invested until your circumstances change.
I wouldn't be buying into the market or selling it based on the daily whims of an investment analyst.
If you are a trader:
stick to your strategy and avoid the "noise"
1. It appreciates in value over time
2. It stays the same value over time
3. it loses value over time.
you have a 66.66% chance of getting it wrong. Education reduces that risk.
However The more times you buy and sell the more likely you are to get it wrong.
If you are an investor:
Determine how much of your portfolio you would like to allocate to the share market and remain invested until your circumstances change.
I wouldn't be buying into the market or selling it based on the daily whims of an investment analyst.
If you are a trader:
stick to your strategy and avoid the "noise"
Turk,
It seems from your comments that you can seem to be able to pick the bottom and sell high, or do you short sell?
Anyway, if that's your expertise that's fine but somehow I do not believe many are experts at getting the timing and peaks and troughs, to stay ahead, do you agree?
What is your return from inception?????
It would be great to take advise from someone who is getting ahead with results rather than just comments, that's all, I am just curious?
I never suggested I could pick tops and bottoms, my only point was that a market crashing from a 6873 high down to 3052 low was more than moving sideways.
For longer term investing I use selections from Motley Fool Share Adviser.
For trading I use CFDs, trade both short and long, trades last on average around 8 weeks.
Intrinsic Value likes to talk in the third person...... lol
No No No
Stock stop losses in the long term are only for traders. For intelligent investors who have time to watch the market frequently, an Evans approach can result in increased returns for the intelligent investor.
Intelligent crystal ball strategy for those that don't have too much time:
ALWAYS INVEST WHERE INTRINSIC VALUE IS LESS THAN SHARE PRICE AND THE UNDERLYING COMPANY IS A SECULAR STABLE OR GROWTH COMPANY
Don't know how many people will be able to interpret this last comment, but if you want real passive wealth creation without watching the stock market every day, I strongly suggest figuring it out.
A Buffet and Montgomery fan, perhaps????
Much more Buffet than Montgomery, however Montgomery does have very good points as well.
