Stats on post counts

Just wondering, and Sim maybe able to assist here, if we can get some stats on the traffic of this site.
I've been on holidays (yeah !!!) for about 5 weeks but the traffic here seems to have a marked decline. Perhaps it's a holiday thing but I'd be interested to see post rates/day from now compared to say this time 12 mths ago and then 6 mths ago when things were really firing.
Any chance Sim ?
astroboy.
 
December / January is certainly a quieter time on the forums... it seems the majority of posters do so from work, and many people go on holidays during December / January.

We saw a similar drop of this time last year as well, but December 2003 was still much busier than December 2002.

The peak for 2003 was May/June/July, where we were averaging around 180 posts per day. By November this had dropped below 150 posts per day, and December saw us at 90 posts per day.

So far in January we're over 105 posts per day, but the post rate is picking up from what it was at the beginning of the month, so I expect this figure to go higher.
 
So it's a normal seasonal variation - maybe like the dip in property prices ;)

I do enjoy the Xmas break as I have half the number of posts to read each day.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
It would be interesting to see how the stats shape up in the next few months.

My hypothesis is that the general sentiment towards property investing may have some impact on forum activity (even though longer-term investors would tend to be active throughout the cycle, and especially in gloomy times).

My observations is that property auction and media 'hype' peaked around the middle of 2003, which correlated with the three peak months on the forum. Though to be really sure, we ought to discount the few 'argumentative' threads at the time and see how the figures stack up.

Though I have no proof, my feeling is that traffic on McKnight's forum, after a book-led explosion of people looking for positive cash flow properties, has also tapered off a little.

A possible leading indicator is the number of new people registering & joining. I wonder how the first few months of this year will compare with 2003.

Together with property book sales, number of property seminars and bank/mortgage broker enquiries, this could be a leading statistic of investor/purchaser intent.

Inverse relationships could include interest rates, new shareholders and number of people joining share forums.

Regards, Peter
 
Spiderman,

I suspect that a lot of the long term (and frequent) contributors will be around no matter how the market heads. We're here because we love property, and want to learn.

For me, if property activity is declining, I really need to learn a lot more, because I've only really been investing in an upswing, when it didn't really take a lot of knowledge to do well.
 
As someone who joined in Nov 2003 I will be hanging around and passing the site to those who will benefit. A bit addictive really.

Also going to the Sydney Picnic to hopefullly put faces to users(FYI see meeting point for details)

Peter 147
 
Originally posted by Sim
December / January is certainly a quieter time on the forums... it seems the majority of posters do so from work, and many people go on holidays during December / January.


Sim

I find this an interesting comment.

Sometimes I find it hard to believe just how much time some people on this forum have up their sleeve to contribute so much.

Whilst I enjoy all responses, I, as a "blue collar' worker, never have the opportunity to "surf the net" all day long at work.

My limited time on the computer at work is less than 2 hrs a day and leaves no time left to visit the net other than a quick look at the latest news during my lunch break.

Perhaps this is why some of the comments on this forum are so biased towards the "bullish view".

From my perspective, the "shop floor" opinion of the property market is vastly different from even 3 months ago, and I think some of the more "insulated" contributors to this forum underestimate the impact that Joe Average will have on the market in the next few months.

They would love to tell you why but they are too busy working on the "shop floor" to vist Somersoft.

Sad to hear Brains has left. I wonder why?


Regards
 
John,

As a frequent contributor to the forum, I'd like to assure you that, as a "white collar worker", I contribute the majority of my time to this forum from home.

I will have a peek before I'm signed on, or at lunch- but most of my reading and posting is before I go to work, or late at night (as the posting time of this message might suggest).

Real estate has done a lot for me, and for my wealth building. And this forum has provided me with a huge amount of information to continue with this.

If, along my own journey, I have learnt some things, I feel it's worth while for me to "pass it on"- because I've learnt a lot more out of here than I have given.
 
Originally posted by JFEWSTER
From my perspective, the "shop floor" opinion of the property market is vastly different from even 3 months ago, and I think some of the more "insulated" contributors to this forum underestimate the impact that Joe Average will have on the market in the next few months.

They would love to tell you why but they are too busy working on the "shop floor" to vist Somersoft.

JFEWSTER,

I don't quite understand your point.

I've never met Joe Average - everyone is unique, but based on average Australian demographics he's a homeowner who doesn't own any invesment property.

I can't see him selling up and going back to renting.

He may delay moving houses a few more years & do a snap renovation to keep the missus happy, but that both cuts supply and demand so zero impact on the market.

Of the 'blue-collar' workers actively posting on the forum, a number own 5+ properties and seem to be doing very nicely. I can't see them selling up in a hurry, though they may buy slower this year :)

What's an 'insulated' investor BTW - someone who is financially independent via property? Anyone in that position would surely be very closely watching the market.....

Or did you mean anyone with a non-'blue collar' job?

If so, I'm sorry to tell you that on average 'white-collar' workers are more in debt and have less job security than the average 'blue collar' worker - if anything it's the blue collar workers who have more job security & mobility.

BTW: Brains was a business owner, so I don't think you could classify him in the blue-collar category, though he certainly came from a trade background and still saw himself as one.

I appreciate your time issues with using the PC - perhaps you should buy one for home. Will cost around $800 for a near-top of line PC if you buy bits & assemble it yourself with a monthly $30 or so for internet access. An investment well worth it if it lets you buy a single IP better due to advice from the forum!

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Real estate has done a lot for me, and for my wealth building. And this forum has provided me with a huge amount of information to continue with this.If, along my own journey, I have learnt some things, I feel it's worth while for me to "pass it on"- because I've learnt a lot more out of here than I have given.

GeoffW, I'm on your side.
I agree totally. I just have a different perspective about the market at the moment and wish to give it. If it makes a newbie think twice, rather than listen to the more experienced (or more bossy)people on this forum and just jump in, then I will have achieved my goal. Speaking of bossy types-


Of the 'blue-collar' workers actively posting on the forum, a number own 5+ properties and seem to be doing very nicely. I can't see them selling up in a hurry, though they may buy slower this year

Aceyducey

I dont understand your point. Anyone could have done well if they purchased 3 or more years ago!

In my part of the world, things dont look so rosy anymore.
One friend has recently been retrenched as part of the Adelaide refinary closure. At 55 yrs, he is wondering how he is going to pay the mortgage on his investment property. Luckily, he purchase 3 years ago and can sell for a profit. Luckily, he didnt buy it 3 months ago.
My brother in law is about to take a package from a nearby company, just like his wife did and my wife did in the last year.
My employer (car industry) is showing signs of poor sales due to cheaper imports and the rising A$. On the rare occasion when jobs are on offer, they are always temp labour hire. Interest rates may rise and capital growth may slow.
And the numbers (for one of my properties at least) just dont add up anymore. I've done ok thanks to the boom but as I've said in a recent post, I pity any newbie who buys it now and thinks they are going to make a profit in the next five years.
3 months ago, it would have sold within days.
Now I'm not so sure. Market sentiment IS changing.
Even the Morons are starting to think twice (based on comments I hear on the "shop floor")
The question is, of the 40% of all mortgages currently being taken out by investors, how many of these investors have done the sums. How many are just "shop floor" people simply trying to get on the bandwagon? Perhaps newbies would be better off paying off their P.P.O.R mortgages for the time being. Perhaps sitting tight to see what happens, saving for future bargains.
After all, you make your money when you buy. Better to buy well.


Of course, you would probably say something like:-
Let's see:Unemployment: 5.6% stable (lowest in 22 years)Youth unemployment: 19.3% falling (lowest in 13 years)Inflation: 2.6% stable (under control)Interest rates: 7% ish slightly bullish (2% under long-term ave)Share market: Recovered more than 30% this year (moving sideways with upward tendency - essentially pre-boom phase)Property market: Tightening, but not collapsingEconomic Growth forecast at: 4% this year 3.7% next year (one of highest in OECD)World situation: Recovering...US now states risk of deflation is same as inflation, Japanese property market showing signs of recovery, Europe strengthening, Asia strengthening, with China booming.....Who sez we're in a bubble?Where are the factors likely to cause a property bust?This is one of the BEST of times - and it's likely to get better!Of course the doomsayers are sure to say - 'things are so good, it can only get worse!!!' Cheers,Aceyducey

Two different perspectives. Time will tell who is correct. I suspect that the truth is somewhere in between. But if you dont really know your stuff, then it is definately risky business at the moment.

?
If so, I'm sorry to tell you that on average 'white-collar' workers are more in debt and have less job security than the average 'blue collar' worker - if anything it's the blue collar workers who have more job security & mobility.

What crap!



?
BTW: Brains was a business owner, so I don't think you could classify him in the blue-collar category, though he certainly came from a trade background and still saw himself as one.

I didnt. I like all his posts. I was just wondering why he left?
Your a bit sensitive today Acey.

I appreciate your time issues with using the PC - perhaps you should buy one for home. Will cost around $800 for a near-top of line PC if you buy bits & assemble it yourself with a monthly $30 or so for internet access. An investment well worth it if it lets you buy a single IP better due to advice from the forum!

Aceyducey. Are you for real? If I'm not surfing the net at work, where do you think I'm doing it? I'm time poor, not poor!

Perhaps, since you dont seem to like any of my posts, and we seem to be at different ends of the spectrum with regards to what the market will do in the future, should I just go away and not contribute anymore? Is that what you want? Or should I just post positive comments from now on so as to avoid being shot down by you?
 
John,

It appears to me as if you're the sensitive one :)

I was having a discussion on the different comments you raised, what were you having?

I stand by my comment that the 'Joe Average' you were talking about doesn't own investment property.

If you're talking about investors just entering the market now, that's a different story altogether. They're not 'Joe Average'!

And while the proportion of investor loans is up - is that reflected in the number of investors or is it existing investors expanding their portfolios? The difference is very important!

I have no issues with you (or anyone else) holding a different viewpoint...however in your case, as I stated at the top of my last post, I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

I still don't...

Are you saying that the market will go pear-shaped because of lots of job losses & average workers having to sell their homes? (which I don't agree)

Are you saying that many people entering the market now will struggle (regardless of their collar colour) and probably shouldn't? (which I agree with you on!)

Re the Blue collar/white collar thing......I based my knowledge on the average debt levels (highest amongst white collar workers) & timeframes required to get jobs (a month per $10K). You're welcome to hold your own view, but calling my view crap is just a bit childish :)

And RE comments about computer access - you were the one who stated: 'My limited time on the computer at work is less than 2 hrs a day and leaves no time left to visit the net other than a quick look at the latest news during my lunch break.'

I did't know whether you have a PC at home, but from your comment it seemed fairly certain that you didn't.


I enjoy your posts John, keep posting them - just don't be scared of having your views challenged, it's a great way to get rid of the personal assumptions that colour our world and reduce our effectiveness!

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Aceyducey.


It appears to me as if you're the sensitive one

Sticking a smiley on the end doesn't make me smile!

I stand by my comment that the 'Joe Average' you were talking about doesn't own investment property.

Prove it!

If you're talking about investors just entering the market now, that's a different story altogether. They're not 'Joe Average'!

Ok. Prove that too!

And while the proportion of investor loans is up - is that reflected in the number of investors or is it existing investors expanding their portfolios? The difference is very important!

I dont know. You tell me! Back your arguments with facts. I dont care how long it takes you. All I want is facts! Cold, hard, tangible facts!

I have no issues with you (or anyone else) holding a different viewpoint...however in your case, as I stated at the top of my last post, I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

My point is that my point is different to yours.
Maybe I'm too negative. Maybe your too positive. I could be having this argument with many other regular contributors to this forum. In fact, some could be "moderators" who move this post down the list simply because they dont agree.
But at the end of the day- it seems to me that negative comments cop the L.B. Biffo! which at the end of the day makes people whom with less knowledge, experience, or less than positive experiences with property investment, or even LESS TIME to do the research to back up their argument, feel insecure and intimidated to contribute to this wonderful resource.

And that's a shame!

That can water down the perceived risks for newbies reading this resource.

Personally, I learnt a lot from L.B. Just like I have learnt a lot from you. Not that I agree with everything either you or he/she has said.

But having read most posts on this forum in the last 3 formats, I think this forum has gone down hill due to the fact that negativity is regarded as bad, and positivity (i.e. How I bought 20 properties in 5 years) is regarded as supreme. Is this a cult or what! Maybe we should be selling Amway.

Are you saying that the market will go pear-shaped because of lots of job losses & average workers having to sell their homes? (which I don't agree)

No. But I feel that future recessions will be sharper and deeper due to the fact that many companies have around 30% variable temporary labour, labour they can shed at a minutes notice. Maybe it will happen. Maybe it wont. But its a risk that newbies should at least think about.

Are you saying that many people entering the market now will struggle (regardless of their collar colour) and probably shouldn't? (which I agree with you on!)


Yep! If they dont do the sums!

Re the Blue collar/white collar thing......I based my knowledge on the average debt levels (highest amongst white collar workers) & timeframes required to get jobs (a month per $10K). You're welcome to hold your own view, but calling my view crap is just a bit childish

Ok. Sorry for the childish comment. But dont underestimate how many people I have had conversations with (in my poor old blue collar job) who only 3 months ago were going to purchase an investment property (i.e have purchased a better P.P.O.R and wish to rent out their old P.P.O.R) but are now going to sell that same property.

Maybe I'm completely off track. But thats still my view of the world at the moment in my market. And i'm not going to stick my head in the sand and not tell my view simply because i'm scared of the L.B. biffo!

And RE comments about computer access - you were the one who stated: 'My limited time on the computer at work is less than 2 hrs a day and leaves no time left to visit the net other than a quick look at the latest news during my lunch break.'

Fortunately tonight, at home, I have a few hours up my sleeve ( I type reeeaaal slow!) to respond to your comments.

Many people reading this forum probably choose to read rather than contribute simply because its too hard to stand up to the "fanatics" point of view.

L.B being the exception. But where is he now?

I enjoy your posts John, keep posting them - just don't be scared of having your views challenged, it's a great way to get rid of the personal assumptions that colour our world and reduce our effectiveness!

O.K. This we can agree on. Thats why I'm challenging you!.

However. Dont forget that many people do have something to contribute, even if only 10% of what they say is correct, but dont contribute simply because they are either intimidated by forum members like yourself, or because they dont have the time to back up their arguments. My comments towards you are not personal, it's just the L.B. thing really annoyed me.

Its real easy to shoot down someones argument when you have the time to do so, but you will miss out on the opinion of "joe average" who, despite what you say, do have a big influence on market sentiment and therefore future capital growth.

I personally like to see all view points, irrespective of how accurate their opinion is, simply to help keep my perspective unbiased.

I think that L.B bashing heavily biased this forum.
 
John,
I also had sometime for LB's thoughts initially, now I am not so sure (sorry LB) I think LB is off on a tangent. I can beat his re.com gains hands down with my latest reno using *none* of my money. Yep thats right I didn't put a single cent of my hard earned into the deal but I am reaping the rewards with equity there available for the next.
Don't get me wrong it was bloody hard work and I have a full time job that competed with it time wise. It was a very worthwhile exercise.
Don't be discouraged, and persevere with your posts here, I at least appreciate your viewpoint.
You may n ot agree with everyone but thats life. Put your point forward, remember there are those who agree with you at times even though they may not be too vocal about it.
astroboy
 
I got to comment here that I also want to see all views shown and lately it seems the negative nellies are endangered species.

I come here to learn the good, the bad and the ugly. There is a fear that when so called negative posters are howled down they simply fail to post again and the forum opinion is all one way.

It is very hard to prove a point conclusively so perhaps we should agree to disagree sometimes and allow the viewers to make thier minds up.

My 2 cents, Peter 147
 
Jfewster,

Originally posted by JFEWSTER
I stand by my comment that the 'Joe Average' you were talking about doesn't own investment property.

Prove it!

At present, according to ABS figures, 12% of Australian households own at least one investment property.

Taking a statement such as 'Joe Average' would imply that greater than 50% of households would have to own investment properties for owning IPs to meet the criteria of being average.

Therefore your comment on this topic is clearly illogical.

If you're talking about investors just entering the market now, that's a different story altogether. They're not 'Joe Average'!

Ok. Prove that too!
Logical conclusion proceding from the last point.

And while the proportion of investor loans is up - is that reflected in the number of investors or is it existing investors expanding their portfolios? The difference is very important!

I dont know. You tell me! Back your arguments with facts. I dont care how long it takes you. All I want is facts! Cold, hard, tangible facts!

If you don't know the answer, how come you were prepared to make a statement equating the 'Joe Average' Australian person with the average new investor.

This is illogical.

I raised this as a question because I don't know the answer (note the common interrogative used ie: '?')

My proceeding points do not rely on the answer to this, this is simply a subsidiary point highlighting that increases in investment finance do not necessarily imply the level of increases in the number of households owning IPs.


I have no issues with you (or anyone else) holding a different viewpoint...however in your case, as I stated at the top of my last post, I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

My point is that my point is different to yours.

My responses FOLLOWED your initial post. Thus it is a logical impossibility that your original point in posting in this thread was to make it known to the wider Somersoft community that your view was different to mine.

You were trying to make some form of point originally - that point is still unclear to me. It also appears from the way you have continued this discussion that it is very unclear to you. Perhaps you should spend a few days formulating your opinions so that you can express them in a way that is more understandable to others.

Or if another Somersoftian could explain your original point to me I'd be grateful.

In fact, some could be "moderators" who move this post down the list simply because they dont agree.

John, conspiracy theory is rubbish. If you want to go around badmouthing the moderators please do it to their faces. They'll know exactly what your comments are worth.

But having read most posts on this forum in the last 3 formats, I think this forum has gone down hill due to the fact that negativity is regarded as bad, and positivity (i.e. How I bought 20 properties in 5 years) is regarded as supreme. Is this a cult or what! Maybe we should be selling Amway.

John, you're entitled to your opinions as always. Frankly from your comments in this thread I think Amway would be a good career for you as well.


Remember, positive reinforcement lifts people up, negative reinforcement pushes them down. You can't run any kind of support group by focusing on the negative - you must instead pool your knowledge to help people overcome the negatives.

And the Somersoft forums, in my humble view, IS a support group for property & would-be property investors, it's not a debating society for esoteric academics.

There are always issues and disasters in peoples lives and in specific property markets. It's less important to point them out than to help people overcome them.

LB, in all his posts, has not offered a single strategy for assisting people to overcome the negativity he sees in the market, he is simply interested in how he can profit himself from the misery of others (ie: buy into the market when prices fall and investors/owners are being forced to sell or go bankrupt). He simply focuses on pointing out the negatives & overlooking the positives without any kind of constructive commentary on HOW to mtigate the risks he sees.

You may enjoy this kind of attitude, but for myself I prefer to be constructive and balanced.

My basic line on this forum (and in person) is: Markets aren't as easy as they were three years ago, but there's no bust on the horizon according to all the economic indicators, my experience and the experience of people I talk to and respect.

There is still money to be made but you have to be more selective & more prepared to walk away from a deal that doesn't feel right. Here are some tips to help you decide whether a deal is right for you.


Let me point you to the purpose of this forum as espoused by it's founders: http://www.somersoft.com.au/forum.htm

to help fellow property investors and potential property investors gain the knowledge necessary to confidently invest in real estate


If you perceive me as overly optimistic I'm glad - because the willingness to be overcome by negativity is not conducive to success in any field of endeavour.

Good luck in your new Amway career. Perhaps the positive reinforcement and support they offer distributors will help you see that a bad situation isn't a terminal one and the power to achieve comes from overcoming adversity within rather than taking advantage of the adversity of others.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Astroboy and Peter 147

When I checked my email today I was almost dreading the ear bashing I knew was coming. Your comments are greatly appreciated.

I am VERY sure I made my point!

And I achieved EXACTLY what I set out to prove!

AceyDuecy. Dont take things so personally. Stop being so bloody logical. The market is not like that!

By doing so, (and this thread is not the first time you have done it to me), you scare people off from contributing. And that, when all is said and done, is a real bloody shame!

P.S. I do, genuinely appreciate your posts. Dont be scared off by me!
 
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