Stock levels up, developer in administration, constuction groups collapse

The cogs in the cycle continue to turn. Those figures say "buyers market" so there will be opportunities for those with funds.

The risk is flat-ish growth prospects on the horizon. Not a time for big cashflow losses or neg gearing.

I am in the "buy" camp, but only on deals which pay for themselves.
 
bene313 said:
The cogs in the cycle continue to turn. Those figures say "buyers market" so there will be opportunities for those with funds.

The risk is flat-ish growth prospects on the horizon. Not a time for big cashflow losses or neg gearing.

I am in the "buy" camp, but only on deals which pay for themselves.
Click to expand...

... +1 here.
 
bene313 said:
The cogs in the cycle continue to turn. Those figures say "buyers market" so there will be opportunities for those with funds.

The risk is flat-ish growth prospects on the horizon. Not a time for big cashflow losses or neg gearing.

I am in the "buy" camp, but only on deals which pay for themselves.
Click to expand...

well said, +1 too
 
the article below it was more interesting.... "The property market in south-east Queensland is in danger of a meltdown" - meltdowns are kind of a big deal and can be catchy
 
On the topic of developers doing poorly. The results from Riverview on March:
AFTER more than 18 months on the market, the luxury Riverview On March apartments finally went under the hammer yesterday — and about 140 people came to watch as they sold for a song.

Valued at $650,000 to $700,000-plus each, four of the six units sold. They fetched $510,000, $320,000, $339,000 and $300,000.

Auctioneer Jason Andrew was made to earn his keep in cajoling every last dollar out of the buyers, but bidding was desultory for the two penthouses, which were eventually passed in because they did not meet the reserve price.

Developer Ron Blyth admitted he felt hard done by, with three of the four sold units going for less than half the building cost.

Even on the highest-selling apartment, Mr Blyth lost about $200,000 – or a total of about $1.2 million for the combined sales.
Click to expand...
http://www.frasercoastchronicle.com...luxury-units-go-at-basement-prices-riverview/

What's not clear though is whether that $1.2m quoted is an actual loss or just the fall in value from their peak...

and they say house prices here can't crash :p
 
So you are selling 2 and as soon as they go unconditionally sold you are buying again? Why? Wouldn't you be losing a bomb in expenses?

BV said:
Me too.
Actually I'm in the selling camp atm.
I've put 2 on the market(restructuring) and I'll be buying again as soon as the contracts become unconditional
Click to expand...
 
evand said:
So you are selling 2 and as soon as they go unconditionally sold you are buying again? Why? Wouldn't you be losing a bomb in expenses?
Click to expand...

Evand

The plan is to reduce non deductible debt & improve cashflow for lifestyle reasons and at the same time to boost my borrowing capacity.

I've considered the selling and buying costs + CGT but despite these costs the impact on my PPOR loan will be significant and at the same time I'm restructuring the portfolio and diversifying so it is something I need to do.

1 of the properties I'm selling is my old PPOR so there is no CGT and if I buy the replacement IP's at below market value the selling costs will be neutralised straight away.

Cheers
 
Last edited:
if I buy the replacement IP's at below market value the selling costs will be neutralised straight away.
Click to expand...

Prices are set at the margin, as we know. So once you buy "below market" haven't you contributed to lowering the price of all homes in the area ie "the market"? A few others do the same and very soon your new purchases are no longer cheap. (And your existing portfolio is less profitable).

I know you are by nature an optimist and while I reject the doomer tag I will accept "realist with a pessimistic bias" but I don't see the value in buying depreciating assets or borrowing for flat-lining ones. Silver is up 30% this year and I would prefer an unleveraged gain than a leveraged loss, no matter how small it is perceived to be.
 
Very true fish. Its like buying shares at a lower price, you are actually contributing to the downward trend.

I buy shares that trend upwards, even if i pay a higher price for them.

I dont think thats analogous to property tho cause everyone wants to pay less.

And thanks BV.

Sunfish said:
Prices are set at the margin, as we know. So once you buy "below market" haven't you contributed to lowering the price of all homes in the area ie "the market"? A few others do the same and very soon your new purchases are no longer cheap. (And your existing portfolio is less profitable).

I know you are by nature an optimist and while I reject the doomer tag I will accept "realist with a pessimistic bias" but I don't see the value in buying depreciating assets or borrowing for flat-lining ones. Silver is up 30% this year and I would prefer an unleveraged gain than a leveraged loss, no matter how small it is perceived to be.
Click to expand...
 
evand said:
What is the ebst way to have exposure to silver?
Click to expand...

It's not easy.

We have no good pure silver plays on the ASX (I don't even like our gold miners although I have some NCM). Coeur d'Alene in the US could be the go but it has had a good run since delisting here. I personally think it has further to go but many would not agree. But that's called "a market".
http://www.coeur.com/

You're an old hand who should be able to be trusted with futures so maybe buy long dated futures with plenty of buffer. But as I said with fully paid up physical either held personally or in the Perth Mint you still make a profit and that is getting hard to find.

You know this Evan but I'll say it anyway: Gold IS money. You don't value it in dollars. You value dollars in the amount if gold they can buy and ALL currencies are devaluing rapidly, which is what a soaring gold price means. If you think gold is in a bubble and will reverse you must think governments are about to stop printing money and get their houses in order.

The US may not go for QE3 but according to Jim Rickards the US Fed will embark on "QE forever".

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/27_Jim_Rickards.html
 
zed_kid said:
Blind Freddy can see that silver and gold are in a bubble...
Click to expand...
They are in a bubble but considering the state of world economies and the depreciation of paper money gold could go even higher.

Would I buy it?
No because my cash is limited and it would be pointless to park it in Gold
plus I don't feel comfortable holding metals because when the trend reverses they can go down in value very fast.
 
best way to expose to silver? my maples arrived today. took all of three days total.

QE4eva is one i've heard as well. the USD will be devalued to the point where their debt is negligible and then in comes the gold backed amero. there's also talk of the war machine being closed down for good.

silver will correct from $50, no doubt. maybe as low as $27/32, but the inflation adjusted highs are actulaly $110-130 USD.

but watch gold. watch it real close. especially during the silver mania.

because when it goes, you'll blink and miss the gravy train.
 
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