Stocks that won't shock - Is now the time to buy?
- Thread starter BV
- Start date
It looks like the enthusiasm for shares has waned. I said I was crawling out of my bunker early in the week, well I didn't like what I saw and have crawled back again. 
This market is no place for learners, only the best traders, and I haven't seen many of them on HC saying how well they're doin either.
This market is no place for learners, only the best traders, and I haven't seen many of them on HC saying how well they're doin either.
Yes because of borrowings, not because of the underlying shares, unless they invested in speculative shares to begin with.
some of them have been doin pretty well on the Banks.....
I'm pretty much fully invested now. The only way to buy further is to start rotating stocks which i generally dont like doing.
Started the year with around $60k of exposure to australian stocks. I now have around $700k at current market prices.
Gross dividends of just under $80k p.a.
I still hold to my position that over a 5yr period, the portfolio should do very well. However i i can relate now to 'investor pyschological stress', especially as the size of the portfolio has grown as a % of my total assets.
The key worry that i possess is a world wide depression ( i think the portfolio can handle recession). If we really enter a global depression then stock prices have the potential of falling much further (and this based on fundamentals).
Started the year with around $60k of exposure to australian stocks. I now have around $700k at current market prices.
Gross dividends of just under $80k p.a.
I still hold to my position that over a 5yr period, the portfolio should do very well. However i i can relate now to 'investor pyschological stress', especially as the size of the portfolio has grown as a % of my total assets.
The key worry that i possess is a world wide depression ( i think the portfolio can handle recession). If we really enter a global depression then stock prices have the potential of falling much further (and this based on fundamentals).
It certainly takes courage to buy (or even hold) in the face of all the gloomy news from the media.
Stocks have gone done a lot further than what people thought. Not many bulls left standing.
I believe this is the time to take some perspective, but without trying to guess the bottom.
You need be prepared to hold on to your positions for a few years in the worst case. A rebound is far from certain.
Cheers,
Stocks have gone done a lot further than what people thought. Not many bulls left standing.
I believe this is the time to take some perspective, but without trying to guess the bottom.
You need be prepared to hold on to your positions for a few years in the worst case. A rebound is far from certain.
Cheers,
Whilst I find 1000-1500 unbelievable, and even laughable, It would be no more unbelievable to me than 4000 was to me this time last year.
1000-1500 would be a full blown depression. I would guess 25% unemployment, 50% house price drops. Interest rates, no idea. Aussie dollar, no idea either, but somewhere between $US 2.50 and 20c US.
Probably a billion people starving to death in the third world.
See ya's.
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TC,1000-1500 would be a full blown depression. I would guess 25% unemployment, 50% house price drops. Interest rates, no idea. Aussie dollar, no idea either, but somewhere between $US 2.50 and 20c US.
Probably a billion people starving to death in the third world.
See ya's.
There is no reason for a depression and therefore it's impossible for markets to fall this much.
IMHO markets are more likely to go sideways for a while before they start to move upwards again.
cheers
hi all
are we at the bottom yet
the britsh just this week dropped 1.5% of the rates to move the market.
what are your views on the reits.gpt and the large property trusts.fkp etc
the big groups that are holding very good assetts are being hit a bit whats your views not from direct investing Ie buying assets but their share pricing.
and which do you think are very low or could go lower
gpt for me look very interesting
are we at the bottom yet
the britsh just this week dropped 1.5% of the rates to move the market.
what are your views on the reits.gpt and the large property trusts.fkp etc
the big groups that are holding very good assetts are being hit a bit whats your views not from direct investing Ie buying assets but their share pricing.
and which do you think are very low or could go lower
gpt for me look very interesting
Im with UBS. Their margin loan facility is a prime brokerage facility similar to Opes Prime. However they do not have the same risk profile as
1) they do not lend against many small cap stocks
2) they do not lend against your securities
3) they do not allow your securities to be lent out.
4) its purely a trustee relationship.
If you are a client of UBS they do not allow any type of margin loan facility from any external sources, eg commsec etc
There interest rate was 8.5% before the latest round of interest rate cuts.
You have to be a client of UBS and do all your trades through one of their brokers to be elible for this facility.
Borrowing using LOC facilities can be a tax headache if the underlying assets are held within a trust. My properties are under a trust, shares under my own name because i want access to the franking credits.
A grade commercial property has yet to really drop.
I bought GPT at an average price of $1.15 before the rights issue of one for one at $0.60. This was before GPT's updated trading position.
I sold the shares at $0.85 after becoming eligible for the rights issue. I have subscribed to the rights issue and plan to sell the new shares at any price greater than $0.85, resulting in a crystalised loss of about 5%.
I am not comfortable with GPT for the following reason:
1) murkiness of their stated NTA
2) even after the rights issue their look through debt could still be around 40%
3) i think Australia has experienced fantastic retail sales growth over the last 10yrs, i think the next 10yrs will show a much slower rate of retail sales growth. Thus i think that commercial rents will have slower growth rates.
4) i think future ylds on commercial property are going to rise, this will impact GPT by reducing future NTA (inverse relationship between ylds and commercial realestate value).
5) Class action against GPT
6) Inept previous managment and no current CEO or chairman (both are leaving)
The two property related stocks i would consider are
1) Westfield because of its premium quality (not just the assets, but also managements ability), but not at current market prices. Westfield is paying a yld of around 6.5-7% at current prices with partial tax deferment. If the yld increases to say 9% i will start to take a closer look.
2) Lend lease because of its attractive share price, high yld and low debt. I currently hold lend lease.
Out of 56 stocks in my portfolio i only have two consumer discretionary stocks, Wesfarmers and Harvey norman. Woolworths would be a great stock to buy if i can buy it at the right price (even with the market correction, its still not cheap enough).
By all historical measure the reits looks very cheap at the moment. There is no confidence at all in the sector.
Are we at the bottom? It doesn't look at it from the charts.
The trends still seems down. Although the pricing doesn't make sense from a fundamental perspective, I wouldn't jump in yet.
Cheers,
Are we at the bottom? It doesn't look at it from the charts.
The trends still seems down. Although the pricing doesn't make sense from a fundamental perspective, I wouldn't jump in yet.
Cheers,
