Thanks for all comments,
If I put every single cents into paying my personal loan, then it will take me up to Nov 2009 (next year) to clear all my debts with $0 net assets.
The reason I have been thinking about buying a property is partly because of the pressure from the rental market. While the home loan interest does go up a few times a year, the rental market (since 3 months ago) has probably gone up 10% to 20% ~ I'm still checking for rental properties at the same time now ... and lots of rental properties all say "... please note the rental price will go up to Blah Blah Blah in May or June 2008 ..." and usually it's about 10% to 20% interest (eg. from $220 to $240 or $180 to $220).
The other reason is ... we are all human and thus have bad habits ... and I do believe discipline by own will is much harder than discipline by force ~ eg. When I was in university long time ago, I hardly study regularly everyday and be a good student, NO WAY! BUT if there is an exam, I will study my gut out and I will pass every single subject at the end of the day ... pretty much like in the past 7 years, I had many many credit cards, but eventually I paid them off and then close some and start some new CC, etc ... WHY? Because there is little pressure if I only pay rent, because there was no mortgage I needed to worry before and there was nothing for me to default (by the way my families are in overseas so I was by myself here in Australia).
But I know if I have a mortgage, then if I have to drink water, I will drink water ~ same as if I have an exam tomorrow, then I will probably stay awake all night to study tonight ... but if there is no exam, then obviously I will go out party instead ~ I don't know if there are lots of discipline people in this forum ~ but one thing I know ... the friend who has bought the property in Blackburn, before he spends like hell like me ... now he could live with $100 per week because he NEEDS to pay mortgage ... and he has a kid ...
So do I trust that I will save every cent and live cheap if I don't buy a house ... honestly ... NOT
It's like if you can work from home, and if your boss doesn't care if you are in the office tomorrow or not ... but still pay you the full amount of salary at the end of the week, will you wake up tomorrow to squeeze in the train and go to work, I bet 50% of the people won't ...
I just assume most of us go to work because we must do that ... not because we enjoy doing that ...
Once I buy a house, then there is no way back ~ so I will be forced to pay mortgage (which at the end of the days will become my assets one day for as long as I can service the loan). And there is a strong incentive for me to pay back as fast and as much as possible, because that will help me to reduce the loan period as well as the interest right? But if I am just renting and "try" to save money and "try" to live cheap, there I honestly can't see what will stop me from over spending again (as I said, I was NEVER a good student before who study 3 hours regularly everyday ... and was well prepared way before the exam).
My friend who bought the property in Blackburn also borrow pretty much like 100% and he lived like a monk, but within a year, the property in Blackburn has gone up so much (the house opposite him sold for $900K with the same size of land as his but of course more modern; but his house is still solid and bought for only $400K just for comparison sake). So his house might worth $450K at least or maybe more after a year, but realistically, how much could he save in one year without buying a house??? The other thing is ... assuming if he can save $25K in one year, but the house gone up $50K, then will his $25K help him to save $$ in he needs to borrow $50K more in mortgage ... and that is exactly my worry now ....
I've seen the land price keep going up ... so by the end of 2009 and let's say I am debt free with no more personal loan (ie. I paid back $30K loan), but what if the land price in Melton rise from the average $90K to $120K or maybe more? So the house/land package instead of $230K to $250K; it will be $250K to $280K or might be $300K? A block of land in Sydenham/Taylors Lake is worth almost $200K now, whereas a few years ago, people can probably pick it up just around $100K ~
The rental property keepw increasing (at a likely rate of 10% per year), but my income won't increase by 10% a year ~ that means I will be saving less and less per year (as I have to pay more and more rent); but the land price will keep growing up ... even I don't want a new house, but for as long as the land price keep going up, then even the old house will also increase in price right? I know there are always bargains out there ... but the thing is ... most of the bargains will probably picked up by you guys first (as investors
) ... WHY? Because you guys are cash up and you will most likely have a bigger deposit than me anyway ~
Considering this ... giving me 5 years time, the first 2 years (by end of next year), I will pay back all my debt .. and I'll be living like a monk for 3 more years to save maybe $80K ... BUT if by then the house price in Melton for a house/land package in average (I use house/land package simply as a standard so that it's easier to see what happens) is $350K instead of $250K, then I will be borrowing $270K (even with a $80K deposit) after 5 hard years ... compared to borrowing $250K right NOW ...
Of course if the house price drops down like HELL and the builders are happy to cut their pay by half, maybe 5 years later I can get a house/land package for $100K in Melton, then I probably won't even need to borrow much money at all
But since I moved to Melbourne for almost 20 years now, I never really see the house price going backward, and I don't think my pay rise and inflation and the ever increasing rental property market will let me save $$$ faster than the house price going up ... 10 years ago, I would never consider renting anywhere in the North West suburbs, I wouldn't even know where is Taneit, Point Cook, Hoppers, Sydenham, Keilors ... but nowadays I couldn't even afford to live there ... and forget about the $800K property market in Box Hill which unless I won the lottery, I honestly can't see how I can manage to buy a house there no matter I drink water for the next 30 years or not ...
But I do thanks all who give me your concerned comments and I really appreciate that ...