TC's farm thread.

[topcropper]

Sorghum Planting.

We have been very busy planting sorghum. Have 600 hectares in. We will pull up for now as the soil is getting too dry. So far all the seed that we have drilled in should come up, as it's been put into wet soil and moisture. However the soil is rapidly drying out and some of it is now going into a dry band.

We have another 300 hectares to go. Hopefully we will get some more rain to wet the soil up. This change coming through now looks like being a fizzer. All wind and no wet stuff. Nothing so far, and I think it's gone. We would only need 15 mills to plant the rest of the crop.



Photo of our new planter and airseeder,....
Some wheat in the background,.....

The new planter is 9 metres wide. The old one was only 6 metres. The planter is Australian made, and was made in Toowoomba.

The airseeder cart is also new. It's twice as big as the old one, and has a 9000 litre capacity. The air cart was made in Dalby.

We are planting sorghum into last years sorghum stubble. All the stubble left on top of the soil helps to keep the soil wetter for longer.

We are burning 45 litres of diesel an hour. Putting out 250 kgs per hectare of urea, 50 kgs per hectare starter NPSZ fertilizer, and 2 kgs per hectare sorghum seed. Hopefully to produce 6000 kilos per hectare of grain.

We have put a TV in the tractor. Good for those late nights.

 

[The Fence]

Well, I made a mistake. The $1100 per tonne for urea was a Newcastle price, so that would be about $1140 on farm delivered. So I in fact will save 30k.

Only realised this just an hour ago when I told the normal supplier I wouldn't need his urea.

Roundup is also dropping. Down to $11 per litre for CT, from $13 per litre last week, and $4 per litre last year.



Had the day off planting today. There was 7 mills of rain overnight. Not enough to do anything good except stop us planting. We will start again tomorrow, but the soil is getting hard and dry. We may have to knock off in a few days and wait for 20 mills or more.

See ya's.

Your shout then TC...!

Oh and as I write I reckon you'd be geting that 20ml you just ordered...I'm getting it here....

Saw that rig operating yesterday as I drove past....

 

[topcropper]

Oh and as I write I reckon you'd be geting that 20ml you just ordered...I'm getting it here....

Na, have'nt even measured it, but I would have only got a mill or two.

See ya's.

 

[topcropper]

Want some good news? 50 mills of rain here, so we can continue planting. We missed those big heavy storms that passed to the north of us, and the wheat is still green enough that it won't suffer any weather damage.



Bad news? Grain prices continue to drop, with everything else. We are not even sure if we should plant any more. Input costs still haven't dropped much, even though the global farm input prices have crashed. We really have to grow a bumper crop just to break even, so what's the point?

Really a bit dejected about it all. Just so thankfull we had our bumper year last year. That will see us through this worrying time.

There are some frightening stories coming from the former soviet states, and south American farmers about the difficulty they are having in getting credit to plant the next crop. If we do decide to plant more, it will be on the punt that grain production going forward will drop dramatically with the credit crisis, and prices can rise back up to where they are profitable.

People still have to eat. They can stop buying cars, and stop going on holidays, but they are not going to stop eating.

Going forward to next year, I think farm input prices, as in fertilizer, fuel, and chemical will be much lower. So it's just this coming season that is the worry.

I've been hit with 'deflation'.




Thinking of ending this thread now. Don't really want to turn this into a 'whingathon', because that's what it will probably become. I started this thread to show things weren't as bad in farming as some of the media makes out, but I just don't know now. I may post updates on new threads. This one is too big now.

If I'm worried, imagine how some farmers feel who have not harvested a grain for years, and have a mountain of debt? Big problems coming up. I just can't see a happy ending with what's happening now.

May as well finish with a whinge,.....Story about the price gouging going on in fertilizer prices,.......
http://theland.farmonline.com.au/ne...neral/fertiliser-gouging-scandal/1364942.aspx

See ya's.

 

[Perp]

Sorry to hear that you're feeling so downcast right now, TC.

If you can summon the enthusiasm, would you mind explaining what factors are causing grain prices to be so low? I mean, I assume it's because production is plentiful, but I thought we supposedly had mechanisms for controlling supply and prices over bumper and lean years, to prevent the price dramatically dropping and falling. Care to comment on that? (Or is that a book? ) What's wrong - in your view - with the "system"?

 

[topcropper]

If you can summon the enthusiasm, would you mind explaining what factors are causing grain prices to be so low? "?

There is still an historically low level of grain stocks. Itis mainly the global financial crisis that is causing grain prices to crash so much. But the real biggest problem for me is that I bought my inputs 6 months ago, and more recently at bubble highs, but since then grain prices have crashed. I could have locked in my prices but didn't lock in enough. Bit of poor management too, but if I knew about all this I'd have sold all my shares too eh?

Remember, that I won big time last year, as it went the other way, inputs rose after grain prices hit the bubble top, so don't feel sorry for me, as it will average out for me.



There is no oversupply of grain. The food crisis is still a concern. I think it could be an even bigger concern with what's happening now, as it's possible production will drop.

See ya's.

 

[Perp]

Itis mainly the global financial crisis that is causing grain prices to crash so much.

Excuse my ignorance, but what's the linkage? I mean, other than that everything is ultimately connected to everything else, why does the tightening of credit or increased bank foreclosures cause grain prices to drop? I'm sure it's perfectly logical but right now it's eluding me.

 

[Sunfish]

Methinks Ozperp that the link is deflation as TC says. I know I feel depressed, although my little biz is still sound.

If you really want to blow your "eternal optimism" read this:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/nov202008.html

(Same link I posted in a share price thread a minute ago).

 

[topcropper]

Excuse my ignorance, but what's the linkage? I mean, other than that everything is ultimately connected to everything else, why does the tightening of credit or increased bank foreclosures cause grain prices to drop? I'm sure it's perfectly logical but right now it's eluding me.

As fish said, it's deflation, as in I paid for inputs months ago, but havesting grain 6 months later after prices crash.

But there are lots of other stuff going on. Importers are defalting on shipments as they can't get finance. Hedge funds and speculators are de-leveraging. They are selling everything. First to go are liquid assets. Hedge funds and speculators drove prices so high last year, and I made a killing form that bubble, so don't you dare feel sorry for me. I will ride this crisis out in fine style.[hopefully. ].

See ya's.

 

[Perp]

If you really want to blow your "eternal optimism" read this

I did read it, thanks Sunfish. I'm rather reminded of Blackadder's "Corporal Punishment" episode, where Blackadder is court-martialed for shooting a carrier pigeon:

Blackadder: George, I'm in trouble here. I need to construct a defence that's as watertight as a mermaid's brassiere. I'm not sure your particular brand of mindless optimism is going to contribute much to the proceedings.

George: Well, that's a shame, sir, because I was planning on playing the mindless optimism card very strongly.​

 

[Sunfish]

Hi TC. There's an interesting debate on fertiliser prices on an IPL thread on HotCopper. Naturally, Yellowcake is involved.

Seems IPL is dropping prices over $600/t.

Happy new year to you and your Dad, and let's all hope for a saner '09.

 

[topcropper]

Seems IPL is dropping prices over $600/t.

Happy new year to you and your Dad, and let's all hope for a saner '09.

World fertilizer prices have crashed. IPL told farmers we won't get cheap fertilizer till we buy all the expensive stuff. But farmers can't buy the expensive stuff because at current grain prices it's impossible to make a profit.

A farmer in South Oz decided to import a heap.
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2008/12/22/35541_latest-news.html


Good on him. It was always going to happen. Now IPL can share in the crash like everyone else. They made a killing from the bubble, and they will now take a hiding when it deflates. The IPL ceo even bragged that they charged for fertilizer 'what the market will take'. They found out the level that was too high and they will pay the price. Greed. They've also lost a lot of once loyal customers. I will support the opposition.

See ya's.

 

[pursefattener]

I will second that . IPL can go and take a running jump as far as i'm concerned .

What a rip off .

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Another harsh light of day reminder that the world is overpopulated and our food is having to adapt to compensate.

The largest manufacturer of feed for caged salmon is taking them off their natural diet onto a vegetarian one......

Presumably, the Omega 6/3 EFAs humans eat salmon for will have to be artificially added ,in correct ratio, to the feed.....

Glad I am not going to be alive in 40 years.

 

[pursefattener]

Another harsh light of day reminder that the world is overpopulated and our food is having to adapt to compensate.

The largest manufacturer of feed for caged salmon is taking them off their natural diet onto a vegetarian one......

Presumably, the Omega 6/3 EFAs humans eat salmon for will have to be artificially added ,in correct ratio, to the feed.....

Glad I am not going to be alive in 40 years.

You might be ?

 

[WinstonWolfe]

if I make it to 90 PF, I doubt I'll care whether my salmon was vegetarian...

so what do you farmers think the collapse of Great Southern will do to land prices?

 

[topcropper]

so what do you farmers think the collapse of Great Southern will do to land prices?

Won't effect me, as Great southern wasn't buying land in northern NSW.

I think land prices may be effected. Land will now lose some of the speculative values it may have had, with some farmers hoping like hell some dumb MIS company was going to come to them and offer double what the land was otherwise worth.

Plenty of farmers would have sold out to these MIS companies and made a motsa, so good on them. Now they may get a chance to buy their farms back again at half the price they sold at.

As land prices took off, genuine farmers would have stepped aside from expanding, as the numbers didn't add up. Now, if land comes back to realistic values they will be in the market again.

In the long term it's a great thing for farmers. No more productive farms that produce food and employ people, being turned into tax dodging, loss making land locked up for decades growing trees. No more loss making farms planting grapes or olives or such at the top of the market. This is great for farmers, the only losers are the investors.

See ya's.