Just got in from checking the wheat. It's going to be the highest yielding wheat crop we have grown in years. We got another 40 mills of rain on Monday morning, and that should finish the crop off as it still has a full soil water profile and the rain has washed the extra Nitrogen in that we spread a few weeks ago. That extra N has boosted it no ends. Should go 5 tonnes per hectare, but possibly more if it don't get too hot.
The old man had to spray it for rust while I was away camping. It was also full of aphids, so they got some medicine too.
$300 per tonne is not looking likely now with global commodities tanking. This crop has cost $800 per hectare to grow.
Even if I only get $250 per tonne,
5 t/h times $250 /t equals $1250 gross per hectare.
$1250 minus $800 costs equals
$450 per hectare profit.
Last years crop only yielded 3 t/h, but I got $400 /t.
Equals $1200 gross per hectare.
At only $500 /h costs, so $1200 minus $500 costs equals
$700 per hectare profit last year.
Interestingly, last years yield, with this years costs and grain prices, and I'd have made a loss.
The 40 cm wide rows are fully closed in now. The wheat is showing the flag leaf. This is the final leaf that the head appears from, and the flag leaf provides 75% of the effective leaf area that contributes to grain fill. The wheat head will appear in a few days, and a few days later it will be flowering. We don't want a frost at flowering or the crop could be a total wipeout.
Sorry for parking the bike in the photo, but it would be hard to gather how high the crop is otherwise.
It's obvious now in hindsight that the high grain prices of last year were partly caused by all the financial guru dick%$#@ &*^%wipes hedge fund managers in New York and London who all decided to pile into soft commodities when they had no idea what they were doing. I was lucky to have sold grain into that bubble, and now it looks like things will correct too far the other way, so I suppose I can live with that.
Some farmers who didn't grow a crop due to drought last year got wiped out when grain prices went silly and they had to buy back their contracts. Grain futures are supposed to be for farmers and end uses to lock in prices, but everyones confidence in doing that now is zero.
We are getting prepared for sorghum planting. To the left of the wheat is fallow country that will all be going in with sorghum in a few weeks.
See ya's.