The end of the party

[Sunfish]

But this is a nice touchy feely forum Glebe. No negative vibes are permitted.

Now form a circle, hold hands and repeat after me "uuuum......."

 

[Tim]

Ron Woods of Challenger Financial Services Group points out, almost three-quarters of all of the net job growth in the private sector in the past five years has come from just three sectors: construction, retail and property, and business services. A lot of the retail growth is property-related - furniture, window coverings, soft furnishings and whitegoods. In the first quarter of the year, the three sectors accounted for 87 per cent of all jobs created (including the public sectors).

If we have had uninteruppted record economic growth of 14 years, then I can't see how the recent 5 year reliance of job growth on sectors that are directly or indirectly related to construction and property are going to adversely affect us, even if property growth reduces.

There are obviously more factors at play. There are no statistics provided in this article on the breakdown of percentages in these three areas. i.e. Maybe business services accounts for 60% of the 87%, dunno....

This was a good article however, it certainly stuck a cord with me. My concerns are the debt levels, but I tend to think these could be partly abated by inflation anyway. Give it two years I say and property will be at its low and time to start buying again in a broad sense, with many deals to be found before then for the serious researching investor.

Tim

 

[always_learning]

Ray,

I look around the engineering offices where I work. Every single person sits in front of a computer tapping away. What do they really produce?

Over the last generation a tremendous amount of manufacturing has disappeared from the Australia.

Asian economies in particular have become the workshops for much of the world.

I can foresee that engineering work currently done in offices like the one I'm in will with time be largely done overseas. It has happened / is happening with computer software development and much other work.

Skills and training of the next generation of Australian workers is apparently being severely neglected - according to recent media reports.

There are major changes occuring. As I see it, this is a continuation of the changes that have been happening over the last century and a half. From when most people lived on the land and have moved into the cities with increasing industrialisation.

Like you, I wonder where does it lead?

regards,

From my point of view Knowledge workers as a group are simply an order of magitude more effective that there most hard working non-knowledge workers, such as production line workers, who in turn are 10 times more effective than agricultural manual field workers.

As a single knowledge worker, my daily result of my efforts honestly appear minimal, hard to point to any actual thing that makes a difference to my company. Sometimes I think my company should just fire me and pay the salary savings to the stock holders. However if I take a couple of weeks holiday problems occurs, projects that are needed in a few months are dead in the water, somehow my fat arse on the seat, drinking starbucks, listening to boring meets apparently without me adding any "value" seems to keep things running!

(Honestly my value is really coming up with the things we should start doing NOW, because they will be needed in the FUTURE and creating really simply plans to achieve the result)

 

[Ray Brown]

always_learning]QUOTE]

From my point of view Knowledge workers as a group are simply an order of magitude more effective that there most hard working non-knowledge workers, such as production line workers, who in turn are 10 times more effective than agricultural manual field workers.

I agree A.L., although I don't consider the army of new real estate agents to be Knowledge workers. More like affected leeches IMO.

 

[MichaelW]

Always_learning,

Here here! I've just come back from 5 weeks leave from my Manufacturing company. I'm the demand manager and my job is to keep the mills loaded with sales orders so they can fill the schedule with profitable business. I had managed to coax us through the Christmas period where we had massive downturn in demand by going offshort to markets like Korea and Saudi. Thinking I'd done the hard work I took 5 weeks off in February and went on holidays...

I get back last week to find chaos. The business has decided to take a shut at one of our facilities over Easter for the full 4 days due to lack of demand. This will cost us around $500K in lost overhead recovery alone!

I may drive a desk, and sometimes question the value I add, but times like this make you realise just what a direct impact your role can make. I'm trying to coax us back out of chaos at the moment but information is scarce and my tools limited. At times I've described my role as "Managing chaos in fog".

I have to take some time out and read SS every now and again just to keep my sanity.

Ciao,
Michael.

 

[geoffw]

It is bit like where I grew up in Shepparton.

...

As a boy Dad worked at SPC cannery,

Ditto...

I'm a Shepp lad myself- my name's still up in the high school foyer.

My dad's hearing never recovered from his time at the cannery.

 

[topcropper]

Funny Isn't it.

Agriculture carried this country for 150 years, then was supposed to be made redundent by industry. And it was, and still is.

Yet we now know that the Western world can't really compete with Asia anymore when it comes to manufacturing. Agriculture and more importantly mining is now the key. No one can compete with this country as far as growing cheap food, and digging up resources.

Agriculture now makes up only about 20% of export income, but mining and energy is now over 50%, and increasing. What's happened to high tech industry? We can't compete. Look at ION. Went Bust. Western countrys without vast areas of land, or vast reserves of energy and resources will do it tough in the coming years.

The era of cheap food may not last much longer either. In China, industry is taking a lot of the water that was once used for irrigation. Farmers everywhere are competing with industry and residential for land, and facing tougher restrictions on what they do. City people move to the bush, then complain about the noise and smell and the cow crap on their cars. City investors raise the value of land above it's agricultural value.

See ya's.

 

[Sunfish]

Hi TC! The news story in the North this week was the new Valuer General's property valuations. Good cattle country has gone up 300% in 2 years. Not too shabby!!!

Maybe someone in Central Qld can give us details about the Rocky-Marlbrough country.

Thommo