The great silver crash-sell sell sell

[Sunfish]

Gold is said to be a hedge against inflation, but having gone up fivefold in the last decade, it's become a very expensive insurance policy.

I have some I bought at a fraction of today's price so not only is it cheap, it doesn't need to be renewed every year.

In short, I'm wondering if chaos and uncertainty have been oversold. And I'm not convinced that if a real Doom and Gloom scenario did come to pass that being fully invested in a precious metal either stored in someone else's vault, or, even worse, held as an ETF, would actually prove to be that clever.

Nothing's guaranteed, is it?

 

[Aaron Sice]

How do you value silver? (serious question)

Is it based on the perception paper currency has no value?

Regards,

RH

i personally value silver against the amount in stock, the amount to be produced and the amount destroyed (about 80 kg of silver dropped in NATO missiles alone, mobile phones etc.) and then look at the technicals compared to historical precedents like the silver/gold ratio.

it's too long to get into why i think silver is going up and gold is going to explode and involves a lot of theory, but so far 2 of my 5 indicators have eventuated, in order, so i'm reasonably confident.

i've only been studying silver for a short time but i suggest if you want to know more, ask hobo-jo.

put it this way, silver is here ↓ and it should be here ↑.

 

[Bigtone]

I have been saying "Gold good, Silver better" for seven years now. During this time gold is up X5 and silver X7 (in US$). Why should a sell off on a quiet May Day weekend cause me grief?

Bigtone (and others) don't have the nerve to trade so leave it to others. Just don't try to give advice.

I have no knowledge and no interest in silver, it is annoying though isn't it when someone just grabs a stupid headline and gives ridiculous advice on a subject they are not informed about. Drawing massive conclusions of impending doom and making sweeping assumptions when they have no idea on the market, your individual strategy and your individual circumstances.

making assumptions on the nerve of people you have never met is perhaps a little misguided

i am happy to make no further comments on silver, gold or roadside field mushrooms if others would stop putting up every negative property headline and making ridiculous comments which provides no value to the forum.

Deal?

 

[Jonril]

...making ridiculous comments which provides no value ....

Making ridiculous comments which provide no value is one of the fundamentals of the internet and the "Information Age"

Oh and I would have bought silver, but instead I used other peoples' money to buy overpriced property and latte's. Now I sit back sipping my latte and rort taxpayers by claiming Neg Gearing. /truestory

 

[bene313]

i am happy to make no further comments on silver, gold or roadside field mushrooms if others would stop putting up every negative property headline and making ridiculous comments which provides no value to the forum.

Bigtone I know the point you are trying to make.

But it pays to follow what's going on in the media regarding property, whether factual or not. The property market is heavily influenced by emotion and sentiment - and much of this comes from the media.

Media provides SIGNALS for those investing in property. You don't need to discuss, argue or even read the bearish articles which are posted here. One may simply take note of the signals being given and quietly go about one's own strategy.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

I have no knowledge and no interest in silver, it is annoying though isn't it when someone just grabs a stupid headline and gives ridiculous advice on a subject they are not informed about. Drawing massive conclusions of impending doom and making sweeping assumptions when they have no idea on the market, your individual strategy and your individual circumstances.

making assumptions on the nerve of people you have never met is perhaps a little misguided

i am happy to make no further comments on silver, gold or roadside field mushrooms if others would stop putting up every negative property headline and making ridiculous comments which provides no value to the forum.

Deal?

Interesting to note the 'different schools of thoughts' when it comes to timing an investment in different asset classes.

Those pro property:
' any dips in the market will provide a good entry point to buy for the long term'.

Those against property:
'what after such a big run up, you never buy property just at the first dip, wait for it to crash first, buying on a dip will be just a suckers purchase. Besides rental ylds are so low why would anyone buy now?

Those pro Precious Metals:
'any dips in the market will provide a good entry point to top up holdings'. Doesnt matter if there has already been a big run up in prices, central banks are just going to destroy the currency, $1 in 1920 is only worth 5c now.

Those against PM:
' what after such a big run up, its dangerous to buy at these levels. Besides Precious Metals dont provide an income.

Anyone see any similarities?

 

[Sunfish]

i am happy to make no further comments on silver, gold or roadside field mushrooms if others would stop putting up every negative property headline and making ridiculous comments which provides no value to the forum.

Deal?

Thank you for this thoughtful offer.

Note: I will not, and never have cut 'n pasted property articles, "of no value" or otherwise.

 

[hobo-jo]

annoying though isn't it when someone just grabs a stupid headline and gives ridiculous advice on a subject they are not informed about.

Feel free to link some examples...

What difference does it make if negative articles are posted or not? Isn't it fair to have a balance of discussion on the forum?

If you have a problem with a user put them on ignore...

Assuming you are referring to me, I post regularly on a precious metals forum. When I believe metals are in a bubble I will be saying so and building a sensible case there also.

 

[Corey Batt]

I agree with Bigtone, there is nothing more annoying than when someone links to a stupid biased article to justify their cognitive dissonance.

Like this one:

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70583

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Assuming you are referring to me, I post regularly on a precious metals forum. When I believe metals are in a bubble I will be saying so and building a sensible case there also.

Have to give you the thumbs up on this.

In order to try to get some understanding of the precious metals market i have looked into several sites suggested by members of this forum, including

http://forums.silverstackers.com/

(and if people think of Somersoft as a perpetual bull, some of the posts on the above forum are bulls on steriods).

And i have to say, that a number of Hobo-jo's posts there seem to be conservative compared to many, almost a sole voice of attempted logic.

 

[hobo-jo]

Thanks IV.

I would recommend this post (of mine) on the other SS:
http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-5110-supply-vs-demand-page-1.html

I think it shows although I am bullish on the metals I still understand there are associated risks.

There are certainly some rabidly bullish users on the site, you could argue with good reason, but many have come onboard over the last 6 months... I have a feeling when this bull market ends it's going to burn a lot of people I guess like the end of any bull market.

 

[Bigtone]

I agree with Bigtone, there is nothing more annoying than when someone links to a stupid biased article to justify their cognitive dissonance.

Like this one:

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70583

CJ i am just a simple property investor I don't understand the use of 'cognitive dissonance' is this context.

Please explain

 

[Sunfish]

In order to try to get some understanding of the precious metals market i have looked into several sites suggested by members of this forum, including

http://forums.silverstackers.com/

Is Auspm still there abusing anyone who owns property? A truly abominable person.

 

[Property Meister]

All bubbles must burst. Gold and silver are probably the biggest bubbles of the last few decades.

Don't forget Frankston North, that is a bubble that will never burst

 

[hobo-jo]

All bubbles must burst. Gold and silver are probably the biggest bubbles of the last few decades.

hmmm

Frankston Median House Price
2001: $155,000
2011: $360,000
2.32x

AUD Gold Price
2001: $600
2011: $1400
2.33x

 

[Ocean Architect]

hmmm

Frankston Median House Price
2001: $155,000
2011: $360,000
2.32x

AUD Gold Price
2001: $600
2011: $1400
2.33x

2001: AUD worth 0.48 US
2011: AUD worth 1.09 US
2.27x

 

[BayView]

Gold up another $1.50 or thereabouts at stumps today.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Is Auspm still there abusing anyone who owns property? A truly abominable person.

i dont know, i just recognised hobojo given that he posts on Somersoft.

and all the links to Bob Chapman, he always good for a chuckle.

 

[Sunfish]

Why is that "believers" in one asset class feel so qualified to point out bubbles in any others doing well?

 

[Sunfish]

Originally Posted by Sunfish
Is Auspm still there abusing anyone who owns property? A truly abominable person.

i dont know, i just recognised hobojo given that he posts on Somersoft.

and all the links to Bob Chapman, he always good for a chuckle.

As a visitor you are unlikely to know him. I guess I was asking Hobo.

After my last post I opened some threads and cant see any posts this year. Maybe the moderator finally decided that he was more trouble than he was worth. He got me banned.