The recession's over

I

investor888

Lets all celebrate, take out the credit cards, and large home loans again. The economists are convinced that the recession is nearly over.

All we need now is Obama on an aircraft carrier saying "mission accomplished".

Somehow I'm just a little skeptical of all this back slapping, job well done sentiment. Some of the core issues that lead to the problems have not been addressed yet. Creative accounting had jsut made the company accounts look better than they actually are.

Sets see Sep/Oct 2009. Some suckers rallies in history have gone up maybe 50% from the low before falling again. This puts the All Ords at about 4500/4600, and Dow ~10000.

In case you missed it, the recession's over
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/money/in-case-you-missed-it-the-recessions-over/story-e6frezc0-1225756552856
 
The recession may be technically over, but there are still difficult times ahead, I think.

Now, more than ever, is a good time to focus on spending less than you earn and reducing non-deductible debt. It's also a good time to be hunting for bargains!
 
investor888 said:
Lets all celebrate, take out the credit cards, and large home loans again. The economists are convinced that the recession is nearly over.

All we need now is Obama on an aircraft carrier saying "mission accomplished".

Somehow I'm just a little skeptical of all this back slapping, job well done sentiment. Some of the core issues that lead to the problems have not been addressed yet. Creative accounting had jsut made the company accounts look better than they actually are.

Sets see Sep/Oct 2009. Some suckers rallies in history have gone up maybe 50% from the low before falling again. This puts the All Ords at about 4500/4600, and Dow ~10000.

In case you missed it, the recession's over
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/mo...-recessions-over/story-e6frezc0-1225756552856
Click to expand...
When you look at all the facts,ASX up over 35% from the previous lows, property values still holding in some area's,but when i drove past the local Dole office this morning the line was out the door and half way down the carpark:eek:,i think that will be the only worry for Mr Rudd and his motley crew,btw if you study the way all share market boom -bust
run, what goes up can go down just as quickly,buy monday sell friday..
imho willair..
 
I walked into the newsagent this morning to get my Herald and saw the huge headline on the Tele: It's over.

My first thought was a big celebrity marriage imploded.

Then I thought it might be something about the Aussie cricket team.

A friend of mine in Perth lost her job yesterday - engineer. I'm not sure she thinks the recession is over just yet.
 
The 'crisis' times where the system was on the brink and we were looking at another global depression are over. We're still in for a bumpy ride.

So the options we're now presented with that being the case; continue hiding under a rock in fear, or use lingering doubts/cautious moving to your advantage to make wise investments in your area of choice.
 
twobobsworth said:
My sales in the automotive industry are up 20% for the month and 30% for the last 6 months.
Click to expand...


May I ask, what was the July sales like?

I knew the June sales were huge due to the 50% investment allowance. I thought July might have been over the cliff?



You should see the farm machinery sales that went on out here before June 30? Incredible. I'd reckon you could hear the crickets chirping now though.


See ya's.
 
Straw hats in Winter

steveadl said:
The 'crisis' times where the system was on the brink and we were looking at another global depression are over. We're still in for a bumpy ride.

So the options we're now presented with that being the case; continue hiding under a rock in fear, or use lingering doubts/cautious moving to your advantage to make wise investments in your area of choice.
Click to expand...

The wise and proactive things we do today in these (bad) times, shall create tomorrow's good times. Some will achieve the latter, whilst those who sit and spectate will look in the retrospectoscope in five and ten years time and missing the boat, will lament that the market is now too expensive and that they were the good old days.......the golden days.

On that basis, the halcyon days are here now :) and in the next couple of years moving forward.

Not everything out there is a safe or wise investment, however as Steve points out hiding under a rock in fear is unlikely to create a positive financial future.

Labour Under Correct Knowledge. ;)

Subdued and sideways markets are excellent times to become educated on strategies to move forward. The biggest hurdle in this climate is IMHO the availability of funds especially for larger/commercial developments.

Positive and neutrally geared properties are all around and not only in small towns. Having finance (LOC, offsets, approvals, etc) at the ready hedges risk somewhat and put us in the dirver's seat especially with stale properties.
 
Even the big bad bear Gerard Minack has admitted he was wrong now...

Minack recants

Now we only need Keen to come out and admit he's a looney tune and we'll have all the bears lining up on the side of the optimists. Can't see that hapenning any time soon though. He's gone too far out on a limb as the poster boy of the property bubble crowd in Aus and can't recant now without losing too much face.

Ah well, its all a moot point now anyway. There's some here that have been arguing the "different over here" line throughout this latest little episode and acting accordingly. To the victor the spoils! :D (And I wonder who did end up buying Keen's little IP at a fire sale discount...)

Cheers,
Michael
 
whilst those who sit and spectate will look in the retrospectoscope in five and ten years time and missing the boat,
Click to expand...

Or not! Everyone has their own approach. Some are happy to sit of low LVR's (40%), enjoy month long overseas holidays, etc, and wait until 2010/2011 to pick up more, once the s** hits the fan again later this year, when all the BS accounting ficade disappears.

Anyway, Somersoft is a little too bullish for me on property. Boom, recession over. Haha, not even begun.

~2500 days to retirement (rip old age of 36).
 
why wouldn't we be bullish?

a lot of people here invest across a lot of different asset classes - in fact, i think this forum would have to have THE most diverse range on investors i've seen anywhere on the net.

if the general concensus is bullish, from a general field of investors investing across a wide range of asset classes - well.......
 
the opportunites that presented themselves in Feb were ones that you only get a chance at a couple of times in your life. I am just regretting not being able to capitalise on them.
 
Buy when theres blood on the streets, works every time even if you dont time it perfectly.
I was saying consistently on this forum over the last year that just as people over react during bullish times, so do they overreact during times of fear.

You have to control your emotions both during times of irrational exuberance and during periods of market panick.

Touch wood, but it looks like the investments made over the last couple of years will enable me to be in a financial position to retire by the end of this year.
 
Yep, heard you then & was ever so convinced your time would come. I'm also a legend - managed to pick the bottom & out of 10 stocks I highlighted, I bought the 2 that didn't go up, QBE being one of them!

Anyway, still quietly confident that my time will come as well. It's weird, deju vu and all that. A different place, a different time, I'd done that.

Good on ya, Chilliaa, I remember well those 'conversations' with NR.

KY
 
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