The recession's over

[blaster]

The Shangai Index is at 35x earnings.
The Shenzhen market's small cap shares are 45x earnings.
In the first half 2009, state controlled Chinese banks extended 1.2Tusd of new loans into the economy = 25% of GDP.
The govt is spending 650Busd on infrastructure projects, 15% of GDP.

Aussie property bulls must think the above is all good solid fundamentals, with not a hint of speculative tarnished unsustainability.


And it looks like Rudd will be the first PM to cause core inflation driven rate rises, by overstimulating the economy with cash for trash, a property vendor bonus, and unprecedented public debt.

So, poor old Aussie Joe Average has been smacked in the face thrice and 1 by Heavy Kevvy:
- artificially inflating property values
- imposing a painful debt burden for 20 odd years
- exacerbating core inflation
- contributing to higher rates with overstimulation of the economy.

I am surprised Kevvy has not been spruiking that "This is the debt Australia had to have"
But then, if Kevvy had been in tighter with his Mandarin linguistic mates, he might have realized Australia's only required economic stimulus, was China's.

Evan, you have your feet on the ground methinks.

Gotta agree on all of this Winston. Many things in the old OZ equation simply do not add up for it to have been this easy that's for sure , or so you'd have to think surely.

But , I think I'll just change my signature to 'as clear as mud' on the whole deal and give up .
Defying gravity is just getting too hard to read !

Cheers

 

[boz]

No one here has yet mentioned something that does help prop our share market.IMHO. Every quarter 9% of that quarters wages is dumped into the share market, bonds, cash and property trusts.

Don't you think that might have some effect on how the market goes?

I wouldn't have a clue what gross wages in this country are for a quarter but I assume they are not negligible amounts.

on the other hand, this is compensated by every day pensioner in australia take money out of super to pay everyday expenses. The overall situation for australia is a everincreasing debt, this is also after the GFC that helped to incease private savings

 

[Aaron Sice]

No one here has yet mentioned something that does help prop our share market.IMHO. Every quarter 9% of that quarters wages is dumped into the share market, bonds, cash and property trusts.

and every quarter, the profit taking resumes and steals that 9%.

great huh?

 

[charttv]

my understanding on the super guarantee is that most of it will be directed into the "growth" option which means that a fair chunk will be making it's way into local and international shares.

I think that by law the fund managers are mandated to keep a certain portion in cash which may be as little as 5% for a growth shares fund and they MUST invest the rest otherwise they are not adhering to their mandate and can get into all sorts of legal issues.

Ergo, whether the stockmarket is going up down or sideways and whether it's good, fair or poor value doesn't matter, they have to tip the cash into the market within a certain time frame or else. This creates a sort of floor on the market as long as unemployment doesn't spiral, the vast majority of super contributors switch to self managed super and opt to tip the bulk of their cash into other asset classes and a whole host of factors that are probably unlikely at this point.

Anyone wanna clarify this?

 

[Aaron Sice]

then explain why boart longyear - BLY - long been used by institutions as a hedge, has been sold down from 220c to 20c...

it's theft, jim - but not as we know it.

 

[Shadow]

Even the big bad bear Gerard Minack has admitted he was wrong now...

Minack recants

Now we only need Keen to come out and admit he's a looney tune and we'll have all the bears lining up on the side of the optimists. Can't see that hapenning any time soon though. He's gone too far out on a limb as the poster boy of the property bubble crowd in Aus

They've all capitulated now. Minack, Keen, Karan. No bears left, they've all gone back to their caves.

 

[Witzl]

drop bears?