maybe a lot of it is euro and US money, so they are just wiothdrawing into their shell regardless of what has better prospects. The shining light I see amongst all this is that it may force this country to finance it's own requirements instead of jsut sucking in foreign capital all the time. Borrowed money forcing up real estate prices - not sure that does anybody any good other than the person who flogged the property and can now afford a new benz cobvertible
Was 3200 for All Ords the bottom?
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maybe a lot of it is euro and US money, so they are just wiothdrawing into their shell regardless of what has better prospects. The shining light I see amongst all this is that it may force this country to finance it's own requirements instead of jsut sucking in foreign capital all the time. Borrowed money forcing up real estate prices - not sure that does anybody any good other than the person who flogged the property and can now afford a new benz cobvertible
That is the range that i think also it will drop into,but i not sure it may well go all the way down into 2500,if another big company in the US goes belly up over the next week or so,and from what i read there is a 50-50 bet that that will happen,after all the Texas cowboy still has time to stuff up a few more USbased car makers up yet..imho willair..
BTW, i just hope our own QLD cowboy Kev747 can see all this and has a plan?..
2616 Is The 38.2% Fib Level.
Thanks Ajax,
I like Nick's stuff and that was a very good piece of analysis.
Cheers,
Michael
You know, if the 3 automakers cant produce cars that people want to buy, then maybe it is best if the quality Japanese auto makers take them over and just deal with it. Why should tax payers keep propping up a poor business mode. I know, many will become unemployed but maybe it just has to be that way.
They are doing there best to manipulate the market by throwing as much money as they can at struggling banks.
If the derivitives crash , then 2500 would be the target (or lower) as depression takes hold...
Read this....
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08258.pdf
Also read anything you can from Alan Kohler in www.businessspectator.com.au , he wrote a great article last week if i can find it which basically says one more major corp on dow 30 to fall and it all comes crashing down...
If the derivitives crash , then 2500 would be the target (or lower) as depression takes hold...
Read this....
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08258.pdf
Also read anything you can from Alan Kohler in www.businessspectator.com.au , he wrote a great article last week if i can find it which basically says one more major corp on dow 30 to fall and it all comes crashing down...
Close enough to 10% for me.
Cheers,
Michael
This late news will affect tommorrows and tonights trade
Dave
The distressed selling isnt over though - the hedge funds have lots of nice frozen redemptions lined up for the new year.
Margin calls are symptomatic of a bear market but I don't think we've hit the real distress selling yet.
My version of distressed selling is when people are forced to sell holdings (not necessarily margined) to pay of other things such as debt reduction, groceries etc. I'm looking for the stage when people aren't talking about shares at all. Which is difficult when you hang out on investment forums
Mate what do you think has caused alot of this selling, hedge funds have to be given notice of future redemptions (for example people wanting money for dec31 had to give notice by novementer 15), thus the hedge funds already have a good indicuation of future redemptions and have been selling assets over the last 3 months to meet those anticipated redemptions.
Cash holdings are running at multi year high and equity positions are currently running at multi year lows for the hedge funds.
This point would have been good to point out 4 months ago.
Margin calls are symptomatic of a bear market but I don't think we've hit the real distress selling yet.
My version of distressed selling is when people are forced to sell holdings (not necessarily margined) to pay of other things such as debt reduction, groceries etc. I'm looking for the stage when people aren't talking about shares at all. Which is difficult when you hang out on investment forums
Why do you think listing of residential properties in upmarket suburbs has spiked over the last 3 months.
My high net wealth broking friends have informed me that over the last month, alot of the retail clients (who became high net wealth clients on the back of agreasive borrowings over a 5yr bull run) have been absolutely fried, but the 'old money' has been moving quietly back into stocks.
History never repeats itself exactly, everyone is expecting a big bang to end the bear market (and maybe it will happen who knows), but has anyone thought that with this death of a thousand cuts, the effect is the same. People thought Jan was the low, then June on the basis of realisation of tax losses, then October (always a weakmarket, but november to march has historically been good) and now the november wack.
A main indicator i look at is market volume, even on big down days like last week market volume was only 4-5 billion. In 2007 the market i think was averaging 6-8 billion, and on the initial downturns in Jan & June08 market volume was also around 6 billion.
Its exactly this sought of scarmongering in newspapers that decimates retail investors.
I quote from the Goldman Sachs JBWere end of day institutional dealing desk dated 24/11:
'Hedge funds cut stock holdings by almost two thirds from a year ago, signaling that they are less willing to take risks amid tighter credit and almost US$1 trillion in writedowns and losses.
Net holdings of equities decreased to 17% from 47% a year ago.
Hedge fund long holdings (inclusive of gearing) totalled $607 billion at the end of 3rd quarter 08, down 31% from $881 billion at mid yr 08 and 39% below peak of $1 trillion at mid 07.
Post 30 Sept08 we estimate further redemptions of 10% and DELEVERING (maybe another 1x lower), reflected in S&P down 15% suggests that long holdings of hedge funds would be somewhat lower now in both absolute & percentage of market terms.'
Why do you think hedge funds forced out of their positions because of margin calls will be able to meet a wave of redemptions? And who (if anyone) would not be calling their funds back in this market? The only people left in the market are on nil gearing or very low.
Maybe if the fund was short.
Maybe if the fund was short.
Interesting to see that today we are testing this bottom.
The all ords currently at 3339.7 which is only 5.3 points (0.16%) off the bottom at the close of trading on 20-Nov-08 at 3332.6. On the following day there was a intraday low of3201.5, which recovered to 3386.9 by the end of the day.
Will it go lower?
I had a quick look at this thread for some predictions dating back to Oct-08, some looking close to the mark....for now
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46785&highlight=asx
Boomtown 3100-3200 on 24-Jan-09
ILoveproperty 3156 Jun-09
Craigb 3150-3180 19-Jun-09
WBG Redcliffe 3400 Jan-09
Goyco 3450 28-Oct-08
Charttv 3425 ??
Housekeeper 3500 31-Oct-08
Ajax 2700 ??
Ethann 1982 2-Jun-09
The all ords currently at 3339.7 which is only 5.3 points (0.16%) off the bottom at the close of trading on 20-Nov-08 at 3332.6. On the following day there was a intraday low of3201.5, which recovered to 3386.9 by the end of the day.
Will it go lower?
I had a quick look at this thread for some predictions dating back to Oct-08, some looking close to the mark....for now
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46785&highlight=asx
Boomtown 3100-3200 on 24-Jan-09
ILoveproperty 3156 Jun-09
Craigb 3150-3180 19-Jun-09
WBG Redcliffe 3400 Jan-09
Goyco 3450 28-Oct-08
Charttv 3425 ??
Housekeeper 3500 31-Oct-08
Ajax 2700 ??
Ethann 1982 2-Jun-09
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I'm with Y-man. Chindia is yet to deliver all the bad news.
