Was 3200 for All Ords the bottom?

[oracle]

Don't know what the trigger was for today's sell off. Profit taking? Margin Calls? Depression?

China's gdp growth forcasts reduced from 8% to around 6% something. For the first time in 13 years China's growth went down 0.1% last quarter. Australia's mining industries get hit hard if China slows down.

Microsoft sheds 5000 jobs

Earnings outlook for most companies looks pretty bad. News of job losses everywhere.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[feihong]

Don't know what the trigger was for today's sell off. Profit taking? Margin Calls? Depression?

It was said that bad news from BNB that triggers the big sell-off; Ppl realise that the worst is not over yet, and financial market condtions haven't stablised.

Actually, news is not required to trigger sell off, chart trendline and indicators are more important.

Since things are going worse than my worst case scenarios already, I'm going to make a bold call that things may not get better till 2013, as per Armstrong cycle.

 

[chilliaa]

But what happened to all the discussions on this board about resources being needed by India and China, and resources would be stronger for longer?

I suggest people refer back to the BHP thread in the coffee lounge, makes for very interesting reading.

I'm a big believer in newtons law of gravity in its application to an investment class:
a) we had 5 yrs of very low volatility, hence a period of high volatility should be expected.
b) we have had more than 10yrs of strong economic growth, so a period of weak economic growth should be expected.
c) we have had a period when financing asset expansion with debt was a no brainer to increasing wealth, so we should expect a period of debt cleansing
d) we have had a period of high business profitability relative to GDP, so we should encounter a period of low business profitability relative to GDP.

This current cycle is more severe than most, but its still just a cycle, and when its ready it will reverse, its not the end of the world.

And most importantly people have forgotten that investing in shares is an investment in an underlying business. During the bull market the trash moves upwards with the diamonds, hence stock picking becomes easy.
The bear market removes the wheat from the chaff (although in the short term the wheat can be discarded as well as people exit the market period).

 

[buzzlightyear]

2700 anyone?

Interesting to see that today we are testing this bottom.

The all ords currently at 3339.7 which is only 5.3 points (0.16%) off the bottom at the close of trading on 20-Nov-08 at 3332.6. On the following day there was a intraday low of3201.5, which recovered to 3386.9 by the end of the day.

Will it go lower?

I had a quick look at this thread for some predictions dating back to Oct-08, some looking close to the mark....for now

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46785&highlight=asx

Boomtown 3100-3200 on 24-Jan-09
ILoveproperty 3156 Jun-09
Craigb 3150-3180 19-Jun-09
WBG Redcliffe 3400 Jan-09
Goyco 3450 28-Oct-08
Charttv 3425 ??
Housekeeper 3500 31-Oct-08
Ajax 2700 ??
Ethann 1982 2-Jun-09

This was also mentioned on the Sky Business Channel this evening.

 

[vla]

If it goes to 2700 then I expect it would happen in May- June or Sept-Nov this year. But then again who knows where the AORD will end up.

 

[Sunfish]

If it goes to 2700 then I expect it would happen in May- June or Sept-Nov this year. But then again who knows where the AORD will end up.

Thanks for that "in-depth" analysis.

 

[craigb]

the dow futures are down @ 2.5% atm so that takes the dow under the 8000 mark another safty zone going going GOOONE! interesting to see what the ASX thinks about this on monday?

 

[feihong]

the dow futures are down @ 2.5% atm so that takes the dow under the 8000 mark another safty zone going going GOOONE! interesting to see what the ASX thinks about this on monday?

umm.. bbq and beach??

I think there will be one more twist to this story, i.e. burn all the shorters first with a quick rally into March before a real wave down..

 

[craigb]

sorry when you work for your self you tend not to remember the public holls, Opps!

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Looking for a bit of education. I have been doing a fair bit of reading but hoping someone can explain things in laymens terms as im looking to invest in growth index funds.

Do you think the ASX is near the bottom?

From past history, what usually happens after such a huge drop in the sharemarket? Once it hits the bottom does it usually just go up from here?

Do you think it will go up from here and continually go up? Is the economy still very volatile? What happens if unemployment rises though?

How is Australias economy? What do you think will happen?

The ASX 200 is around the 3500 mark. Wanting to invest in an index fund i'd be hoping for the index to consistently go up from here (although I do understand there can be volatile periods whilst investing in an aussie shares fund)

I dont want to jump into anything until i can understand things more fully

 

[The Y-man]

Purely in my opinion only!

Do you think the ASX is near the bottom?

No.

From past history, what usually happens after such a huge drop in the sharemarket? Once it hits the bottom does it usually just go up from here?

Yes, otherwise it would not be a bottom.... (kind of like, how far can you run into a forest? Halfway...)

Do you think it will go up from here and continually go up? Is the economy still very volatile? What happens if unemployment rises though?

How is Australias economy? What do you think will happen?

According to some people, the economy is about to take a real hammering...

The ASX 200 is around the 3500 mark. Wanting to invest in an index fund i'd be hoping for the index to consistently go up from here (although I do understand there can be volatile periods whilst investing in an aussie shares fund)

I'm sure lots of people hope this! The reality may be the index getting to around the 2700 mark.

I dont want to jump into anything until i can understand things more fully

I can't say I understand it much either! Unfortunately that's the sharemarket - it does a lot of things that defy understanding..... (from a raitonal/objective perspective)

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I think the sharemarket is too scarey for me! Cos I keep having 2nd thoughts. I think if i were to invest in the sharemarket, i'd probably be worrying about it and things too much and wandering whats going to happen in the future. There are lots of different variables in the world and Aussie economy.

Perhaps I am better off saving into my offset. Then when i can afford to I'll buy my next property. Property just seems safer to me. (as long as you choose well). You dont have to worry about it crashing 50% or a company collapsing. With time the value goes up you build equity, rents go up. You have your insurance to take care of things that can go wrong, and make sure you have a good size buffer.

 

[feihong]

I think the sharemarket is too scarey for me! Cos I keep having 2nd thoughts. I think if i were to invest in the sharemarket, i'd probably be worrying about it and things too much and wandering whats going to happen in the future. There are lots of different variables in the world and Aussie economy.

Perhaps I am better off saving into my offset. Then when i can afford to I'll buy my next property. Property just seems safer to me. (as long as you choose well). You dont have to worry about it crashing 50% or a company collapsing. With time the value goes up you build equity, rents go up. You have your insurance to take care of things that can go wrong, and make sure you have a good size buffer.

That, I must say, is a brilliant idea Patience is the key to investment.

 

[Pete_d]

Was 3200 for the All Ords the bottom?

Don't think so. The dow was down 4.2% last night to break a 12 year low. The futures on the all ords are pointing to 3125 at open today.

Could this take us to the next support at 2800?

 

[vla]

Was 3200 for the All Ords the bottom?

Don't think so. The dow was down 4.2% last night to break a 12 year low. The futures on the all ords are pointing to 3125 at open today.

Could this take us to the next support at 2800?

A once in a lifetime event this occurrence. Don't really know where the bottom will be but it going to take at least 10 years to recover. It doesn't help IMHO that the US government is issuing bailout after bailout for these greedy, incompetent companies. Let them fail I say, the world will be a better place and let competent people move in and start better run companies.