Whats the definition of optimism?

[evand]

An article in this mornings Sydney Morning Herald. For Ross Gittins to be writing like this, things must be serious. He's usually very moderate in his views.


http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/bad-signs-as-the-cbd-empties/2008/12/09/1228584832867.html

Here's an ominous excerpt for property.

"These former high-flyers also played an important role in inflating and maintaining property prices in well-located inner-city areas. It is not clear how much longer house prices in these areas can hold up against the tide of new properties coming on to the market. There are 312 properties currently listed for sale in Mosman, complete with their own "French Provincial-inspired terrace" and "breathtaking Middle Harbour views". One three-bedroom villa is advertised ominously as "for definite sale"."

 

[MIZBUF]

It wasn't Ross Gittins- a substitute writer- as he is on leave-- Nevertheless I find it really tiresome that when the highflyers are taking a hit the journos and the envious just can't help gloating. The sort of jobs that the writer is saying are being lost(and she is quite correct- the rate of attrition is alarming)- are jobs who are high earning employees and as such don't have company structures or are in the "cash economy" so the very high taxes at the rates they pay make them the big contributors to those who get the sympathy when they are doing it tough- "the battlers "- Just a bit of even handedness is, I know, too much to expect-

 

[evand]

oops , missed that Ross Gittins was on leave. I was rushing to get my daughter to school.

Can you explain this bit again. I'm not sure i got what you meant.

The sort of jobs that the writer is saying are being lost(and she is quite correct- the rate of attrition is alarming)- are jobs who are high earning employees and as such don't have company structures or are in the "cash economy" so the very high taxes at the rates they pay make them the big contributors to those who get the sympathy when they are doing it tough

 

[BayView]

I love this bit:

"Those still ironing shirts are keen to avoid the spotlight, while the newly unemployed, instead of protesting on the street, are quietly going about the business of putting the Mosman home on the market, auctioning the Audi and offloading the holiday house at Palm Beach. Tail between legs, they're retreating homewards to start living the simple life, or start writing that novel they always knew they had in them.

It's the silent recession, which, unlike other recent recessions, is coming from the top down, rather than the bottom up. But it in the end it will catch up with everyone."

And this:

"Heavily indebted households have been burnt and consumers in general have a new appreciation of the dangers of debt. It will take at least six months for interest rate cuts to begin to work their way through to help boost the economy."

Basically; most of the penguins are loaded up with consumer debt at all levels of income.

No surprise as to what is required now if you want to keep on investing; lower the LVR, reduce debt and try to buy cashflow positive assets.

 

[see_change]

And what does this tell you ?

Maybe now is a good time to look at Mosman.

The market that is suffering there are the expensive houses . People no longer are looking to spend 4 mill , but under 2 mill the market is still ticking over .

1-2 bedders are selling if well priced , and bargains will bring out multiple buyers . There are expats coming back buying into the Kirribilli to Mosman area who are buying at the lower level so this part is fairly robust at this stage.

Cliff

 

[see_change]

Further to above ,

We've just exchanged on our first IP purchase for around five years , in Mosman.

First IP we've bought in Sydney.

Cliff

 

[MichaelW]

Further to above ,

We've just exchanged on our first IP purchase for around five years , in Mosman.

First IP we've bought in Sydney.

Cliff

Nice work Cliff!

And from the details you PM'd me I can vouch for this being an excellent buy. That was a real steal in a depressed market with significant upside potential. Happy Days!!

I just hope the top end stays down long enough for me to pick up something nice in 12 months time.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[chilliaa]

And what does this tell you ?

Maybe now is a good time to look at Mosman.

The market that is suffering there are the expensive houses . People no longer are looking to spend 4 mill , but under 2 mill the market is still ticking over .

1-2 bedders are selling if well priced , and bargains will bring out multiple buyers . There are expats coming back buying into the Kirribilli to Mosman area who are buying at the lower level so this part is fairly robust at this stage.

Cliff

You know see_change its interesting to see you poping up again in this forum over the last few months. Interesting because by the number of postings you are obviously an experienced poster, interesting because from the sounds of things you have been investing in property for a long time, and most interesting of all, that you choose this time when many people are calling D&G for residential property that you are becoming active in your search for more property.

Maybe you are the Warren Buffet of Australian residential property 'become scared when other people are gready and gready when other people are scared'

 

[redwing]

You know see_change its interesting to see you poping up again in this forum over the last few months. Interesting because by the number of postings you are obviously an experienced poster, interesting because from the sounds of things you have been investing in property for a long time, and most interesting of all, that you choose this time when many people are calling D&G for residential property that you are becoming active in your search for more property.

Maybe you are the Warren Buffet of Australian residential property 'become scared when other people are gready and gready when other people are scared'

Hey...you could be right; He is the Apprentice Timing Lord

 

[tubs]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the CBD highrise market after the large scale job losses in the finance sector happen.

There would have to be a significant number of people in these places that may shortly become unemployed and leave.

 

[chilliaa]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the CBD highrise market after the large scale job losses in the finance sector happen.

There would have to be a significant number of people in these places that may shortly become unemployed and leave.

Cant comment on other CBD markets, but melbourne CBD residential market is dominated by international students.
They have the discretionary income and are not price sensitive.
Demand from international places in australia's education system is still higher than supply especially from China.