Where is Sydney in the cycle? Time to jump in yet??

[POLSATOR]

Thinking of getting back into the Sydney market but after peoples opinions on where they think Sydney is heading in the cycle?

IMO I think as interest rates are heading down, rents going up and first home buyers on radar again, Sydney may be ready to take off again after a 5 year flat period.

Looking at trying to buy house in western Sydney around 220k - 250k if possible. Anywhere from Liverpool up to Mount Druit along the train lines.

Flip side with so called recession maybe on cards and unemployment on the rise maybe, I am thinking people wont be able to pay mortgage with no job so more houses going into repossession = price drop.

Does any of this make sense or am I totally off track??? Any coments appreciated.

Cheers.

 

[Ajax]

Have a read of my post here Polstar.

Am specifically thinking of high yielding units in Auburn Western Sydney (I already have one) Prices are creeping up slowly...less 2 bedroom units under $200k than 2 months ago. Possible to get $250+/week return for about $200k (6.5%+ return)

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=483759#post483759

If you buy in this price range I'd be doing it soon and I'd be chasing high yield.

 

[Gee Cee]

I am with the Flip Side for some time yet

 

[see_change]

Last cycle Mt Druitt etc stayed flat for at least five years while the upward cycle moved the eastern suburbs up 50 %.

Share markets just dropped 50 % .

Banks are reluctant to lend.

I'm still standing on the sidelines at the moment and when I buy , Mt Druitt / Liverpool will not be on my list for a while . ( at some stage they will be ).

Cliff

 

[eternit]

Last cycle Mt Druitt etc stayed flat for at least five years while the upward cycle moved the eastern suburbs up 50 %.

Share markets just dropped 50 % .

Banks are reluctant to lend.

I'm still standing on the sidelines at the moment and when I buy , Mt Druitt / Liverpool will not be on my list for a while . ( at some stage they will be ).

Cliff

Hey See Change,

Just wondering why Liverpool and Mt Druitt wont be on your list for a while? In my opinion Liverpool and Mt Druitt should the first on the list considering prices have stagnated for 5 years and some property prices have fallen more then 50% in the last 5 years while the rents have skyrocketed.
Actually I have been watching the Liverpool and Mt Druitt areas for a while now and the entry level properties seem to be selling fast as yields are fantastic and there is a lot of demand for rental in those areas.

 

[eternit]

Have a read of my post here Polstar.

Am specifically thinking of high yielding units in Auburn Western Sydney (I already have one) Prices are creeping up slowly...less 2 bedroom units under $200k than 2 months ago. Possible to get $250+/week return for about $200k (6.5%+ return)

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=483759#post483759

If you buy in this price range I'd be doing it soon and I'd be chasing high yield.

I agree, Auburn would look very attractive if the rates go that low as the demand for rental is very high and the rental yields are very good in the area.

 

[Tman]

Has anyone from here has been through a recession before ?
Does anyone recall how long the recession last in 1987 ? Please share with us
I m worried that unemployment is going to go up and there are people who can't afford to pay for the rent therefore everything might fall after that..

 

[grossreal]

hi
been thru two
the uk one 80 and 87 here.
as for how long thats a bit of a piece of string issue as the are very different and rentals are not a major as people have to live some where.
the 87 sent alot of hotels to the wall and was very different to today.
this one is going to bite for me alot harder as we have not seen the worst yet.
and not sure what still to come.
there is alot of stock around and alot of groups hurting and thats when people like me get into action
to give you an idea my people are made up of very old business man the average is about 55
now one of my guys is about 70 and last night he got 4 hrs worth of sleep
me I was up till 2
for the last about 6 months about the norm
one guy is still at the office and is in again tomorrow and sunday
and we work for ourselves and we buy into the problem areas and as farmers will say harvest time you have to put in the time.
where is sydney at the moment.
for us its a very good position will it get worse yes
are we happy no but the same can be said for a undertaker.
jump in
yes depending on the area.
as for not investing in an area.
I must admit I think no one should invest in any area.
makes my job a bit easier.

 

[Mom]

Banks are reluctant to lend.

Cliff

Not with the credit unions/Building Socities. Australian deposits are coming in to these institutions in droves , people are withrawing monies from big banks fearing impact on their lending practice ( borrowing and lending to the international markets). So now, Credit Unions/Building Societies are looking for borrowers to lend these funds to.

Aproach Credit Union/ Building socities for your lending. Still lend 95% LMI capitalised for new purchase, 90% LMI capitalised for refinancing.

I'm a sucker for not for not excessive profit banking. What can I say

 

[see_change]

I agree, Auburn would look very attractive if the rates go that low as the demand for rental is very high and the rental yields are very good in the area.

But it's not going to be cash flow positive at that price and I think it's unlikely to see any capital growth for a while.

Cyclically Mt druitt is one of the last places to move in Sydney. There are reasons why it has returns . It has high expenses . Higher turn over in tenants , more damage to properties , greater delinquencies . I worked out there for 19 years .

I will buy there but certainly not at the moment , but don't let me stop you

Cliff

 

[eternit]

But it's not going to be cash flow positive at that price and I think it's unlikely to see any capital growth for a while.

Cyclically Mt druitt is one of the last places to move in Sydney. There are reasons why it has returns . It has high expenses . Higher turn over in tenants , more damage to properties , greater delinquencies . I worked out there for 19 years .

I will buy there but certainly not at the moment , but don't let me stop you

Cliff

Defintely wont be stopping me. I recently bought a property in Mt Druitt area which is positively geared from day 1, putting in $50 per week into my pocket after all expenses including management fees, council rates, BC, water charges

This is without taking into account any depreciation either

Waiting for more properties like this to come up........

 

[see_change]

Defintely wont be stopping me. I recently bought a property in Mt Druitt area which is positively geared from day 1, putting in $50 per week into my pocket after all expenses including management fees, council rates, BC, water charges

This is without taking into account any depreciation either

Waiting for more properties like this to come up........

Congratulations

Cliff