Why are 4brs/family homes dropping the most

Just curious, Ive read this article a few times

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Art...uburbs bear brunt as real estate market reels

Premium suburbs bear brunt as real estate market reels

Author: Eli Greenblat
Date: November 12, 2008
Publication: The Age (subscribe)

Larger homes in some of Melbourne's more affluent suburbs are taking the brunt of the global financial crisis and a slowdown in the Australian economy.

Figures from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria show that Melbourne's inner-east is the most heavily punished region, with prices for four-bedroom houses falling four times more than the Melbourne median for the September quarter.

At auctions across tree-lined streets in Toorak, Brighton and Kew, bidders are keeping hands in pockets, with auctioneers forced to pass in homes and hope. "I would say there has been a 10% to 15% fall," said local agent Richard Mackinnon, from Bennison Mackinnon, referring to those suburbs. In the September quarter, the median house price for metropolitan Melbourne fell to $435,000 from $450,000, a loss of 3.3%.

He said some of the better suburbs suffered a 10% decline, helped by a lack of supply. But he said as yet there had been few forced sales in Melbourne's most exclusive suburbs despite the financial crisis wiping out end-of-year bonuses and a jump in retrenchment of executive employees. "What will probably go, in terms of forced sales, will be the beach homes and hobby farms in places like Portsea and Sorrento — it's the toys that usually go first."

Four-bedroom homes in the inner east, which includes suburbs such as Kew, Camberwell, Canterbury, Richmond and Hawthorn, posted a 13.2% fall in the September quarter.

Three-bedroom inner-east houses have also faired badly, tripling the city median with a drop of 9.9%.

It was a similar case for three-bedroom homes in the inner-south where homes across St Kilda East, Prahran, Caulfield North and Armadale have slipped for the three months to September by 12%.

REIV figures reveal that four-bedroom homes in Melbourne's inner-east have recorded the largest falls over the past 12 months, dropping 15% since September 2007.

Meanwhile, first home buyers seeking cheaper accommodation have helped hold up demand for two and three-bedroom homes in the inner city, as well as a ring of outlying suburbs circling the capital to the west, north and east.

REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo said: "It showed that people who were looking to sell their home will still see good demand, particularly in the more affordable segments as Melbourne was experiencing ongoing strong population increases and there are very few vacant rental homes."

Regions that performed better than the 3.3% drop across Melbourne (reflecting strong demand) included inner-city two-bedroom homes with a fall of 2.1%, three-bedroom homes in the outer east (-1.9%) and three-bedroom houses in the west (-0.7%).

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I just can't work out why the good old family home would suffer the most...

I can understand the portseas etc dropping, or the albert parks etc. but why the 4bdrs in the not the ultra high end dropping....
 
PM - all the suburbs mentioned in the article are in the top 10 most expensive suburbs with medium prices above 1million. So its all those families that have taken large debt, and have had to service same. They may have had margin calls, no bonus payment, super reducutions etc etc. The top end tends to fall quickly then it will flatten out. The rest will then slowly glid back to the pack and taking longer to do so.

The biggest bubble of em all - private school fees - watchem drop 50 pct over the next 3 years..

Cheers
Rogue
 
I agree....I am also seeing this in Sydney in the wealthier suburbs!

An interesting observation is that for the first time in about 20 years...it will be cheaper to buy than to rent in a lot of cheaper suburbs. Thus why the low end is moving well....but once the economy stablilizes it will be a stampede.

I can't see the high end mpving up alot for about 12 months. There is a lot of delayering of middle and upper management executives. The fundamentals of running lean and mean organisations is back on the agenda.

Watch the financial services industry.....I reminds me of what happened in the early 1990s...

PM - all the suburbs mentioned in the article are in the top 10 most expensive suburbs with medium prices above 1million. So its all those families that have taken large debt, and have had to service same. They may have had margin calls, no bonus payment, super reducutions etc etc. The top end tends to fall quickly then it will flatten out. The rest will then slowly glid back to the pack and taking longer to do so.

The biggest bubble of em all - private school fees - watchem drop 50 pct over the next 3 years..

Cheers
Rogue
 
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I view the drop in 4-bedroom houses in bluechip suburbs as confirmation that former corporate high flyers are now getting hammered with threats of being made redundant, bonuses withdrawn and all around doom-and-gloom.

Also these houses have historically very low yield, so they're very difficult to hold in a flat market.

With yield now being back in vogue, it's inevitable that these large pre-war dwellings will continue to experience softness.
 
Brighton Victoria is down 20% since the top last year. We will see at least another 30-50% as this is the top end of the market. Brighton Camberwell Toorak falls first and recovers first. The recovery this time is a long way off.
 
Brighton Victoria is down 20% since the top last year. We will see at least another 30-50% as this is the top end of the market. Brighton Camberwell Toorak falls first and recovers first. The recovery this time is a long way off.

Values have come down, some 20% yes but you still need 1.5M for a sh#Tbox in middle brighton. I go to several opens a week and also go to auctions. I personally know 3 families with 7 figures in the bank ready to buy. Family house buyers still have the cash but are waiting for further falls.

50% drop is pie in the sky stuff.

Values last year were insane. 650SQM land value houses on busy roads were bringing 1.8m. That was insane.

We also had 40% increase of 18months a couple of years ago which is way above what seems to be "sensible" Likve every market now it is flat and will be for the next few yrs.
pieman
 
Brighton Victoria is down 20% since the top last year. We will see at least another 30-50% as this is the top end of the market. Brighton Camberwell Toorak falls first and recovers first. The recovery this time is a long way off.

are you saying that you reckon it will drop another 30-50% off on top of this 20%

so say its worth 1 mill, Minus 20%=800k, 30-50%off 800k = $560k-$400k!!

so we could buy a 1 mill property for $400k!

if so, Im buying!
 
are you saying that you reckon it will drop another 30-50% off on top of this 20%

so say its worth 1 mill, Minus 20%=800k, 30-50%off 800k = $560k-$400k!!

so we could buy a 1 mill property for $400k!

if so, Im buying!

I will give awayl my networth to children in 3rd world country if in 2 years you can buy a house in Brighton for 400k
 
I will give awayl my networth to children in 3rd world country if in 2 years you can buy a house in Brighton for 400k
Nah, give it to me so I can buy five of those Brighton houses for myself! :D

I love some of the stuff I read on here sometimes. Always makes me chuckle!

Cheers,
Michael
 
If you believe that...I have some Oceanfront property in Arizona, USA to sell you!!;)

Brighton Victoria is down 20% since the top last year. We will see at least another 30-50% as this is the top end of the market. Brighton Camberwell Toorak falls first and recovers first. The recovery this time is a long way off.
 
Sash,
Are you saying it was formerly cheaper to buy than to rent?? :confused:

Depends where. Interest costs (SVR) on Median House Price (APM) versus 3br house rent (APM) adjusted to 2006$:
rentvbuyss7.png
 
I was going to say the same thing, but I saw a 2bdr unit sell for $506k and $390k.... so lucky I didn't make any dumb bets:D

mate if my house goes to 400k in 2 years I'll be wiped out, so I wont have much to give.

My house is about the median value for the suburb and was valued last year by the bank at 1.8, so a val of 400k would be a fall of 70+%.

I think we'd all be in trouble in some way if property dropped 75% of 2007 prices.
pieman
 
Depends where. Interest costs (SVR) on Median House Price (APM) versus 3br house rent (APM) adjusted to 2006$:
Hi MC,

You don't have those charts up to date do you?

I'd love to see the comparisons between interest and rent by city now that rents have jumped 20% odd in the last 12 months in Sydney and interest rates have fallen by about the same amount.

Those pretty blue lines should be falling sharply at the same time as the pretty pinks ones are spiking sharply! :D

Like others have said, it might not be too long until they cross again in some cities and we see rents exceeding interest repayments. My little tipping point hypothesis basically talked about the correlation between these two and argued when they look like crossing that's when you should think about buying as they explode out again as people move from renting to buying.

Cheers,
Michael
 
Hi MC,

You don't have those charts up to date do you?
Almost, to June 2008. They are annually updated, but the rental report wasn't out when I did the update.

rents have jumped 20% odd in the last 12 months in Sydney
They haven't. Asking rents for Sydney houses rose 15% in the 12 months to June 2008 (10.5% real) according to the APM index, to $420 in 2008$. You can plot that on the chart above. ;)

Subtract a bit for inflation...

And then dig a bit deeper. Here, APM list the June 07 asking rent for Sydney houses at $385/wk:
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/media_release/APM_Rental_Market_Report_Sept2007_Quarter.pdf
Here, APM list the June 08 asking rent for Sydney houses at $420/wk:
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/media_release/APM_Rental_Market_Report_June2008_Quarter.pdf

In that second release, they also changed the June 07 figure back to $365. Hmm. Smells funny. $385 to $420 is just 9%, or 4.5% real...

I'll continue using the APM figures for these charts for the sake of continuity. But I acknowledge that the NSW Dept of Housing figures reported closer to 17% increase in rents (for the % of rental dwelling leases renewed), but to a lower figure of $310-$348/wk for September quarter.

Meanwhile, the ABS (which includes all rental properties, not just those who lodged new bonds) found just a 7.5% increase in Sydney rents (all properties) in the year to September quarter.

The biggest impact on these charts will have been the reduction in interest costs.
 
Asking rents for Sydney houses rose 15% in the 12 months to June 2008

NSW Dept of Housing figures reported closer to 17% increase in rents

Rents through the roof, vacancy rates at historic lows, interest rates plummeting, sales volumes strong and rising, rental yields rising, house prices approx. 15% lower in real terms from the 2003 peak...

All looking good for Sydney - in a year or two we'll be booming! Those who don't make the most of the current buying opportunity will be seriously regretting that decision by 2010...

SydneyResidexSep08.jpg


SydneyUnitsResidexSep08.jpg
 
Rents through the roof, vacancy rates at historic lows, interest rates plummeting, sales volumes strong and rising, rental yields rising, house prices approx. 15% lower in real terms from the 2003 peak...

Yes the above fundamentals are very much in favour of a boom. It will be a telling moment over the coming year or two to see exactly how much influence the availability of finance has on property prices.
 
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