Why NOT to buy in the USA?

Thanks, WW, for your comment on macroeconomic factors. I actually agree. And all those middle-class citizens who can no longer afford their middle-class houses have to live somewhere - in the well-located 25th percentile houses that I'm targeting. ;)

Could you please explain this "nothing is real that isn't local" saying. I don't know it, and I don't get it.

IMHO, there are forces coming into play that could see the USA go into a severe recession, and perhaps depression. Whatever, their economy has to contract significantly because they cannnot grow household debt further, nor can they obtain credit as easily. One of the sectors quite bearish about the future is education. THe universities are extremely concerned that students cannot borrow funds for degrees at a reasonable rate.

I agree severe recessions bring higher demand for cheaper rentals. But you want to make sure you are in the right spot. Petrol and job security will still be critical factors.

Nothing is real........
it's a phrase used in politics against centralization in particular. centralized or remote management will never have the insight or deliver the service of a savvy local. all 'institutions' and corporations are abstract delusions. the only thing real about them are the people that work in them. if those people are not local, they cannot be trusted to care as much as locals.

This applies to commercial endeavours just as much as to the effectiveness of nationalized health care.
 
i applaud you for doing your research there ozperp.

i was looking to buy a block of 9 units in San Antonio, TX witha laundromat and 2 store ont he ground floor for $300k last year. Rental income was $4100AUD a month!!!! National would lend 60% of the value and i had well over $120k needed to finance.

rents have skyrocketed in this building to over $5000 a month now - and it's still for sale.

this was from a company call gr8investments or something similar - but i'm not getting a tenth of the email "alerts" i used to.

i guess if it's a yield / income thing then great, but if you're looking for CG then i guess it may not be your thing because there's a dead-cat-bounce scenario building with house prices over there.
 
just noticed that Quiggles post was late 2004 - a lot has changed since then, especially with our new free trade agreement and ... well, all of 2007 ...
 
I agree severe recessions bring higher demand for cheaper rentals. But you want to make sure you are in the right spot.
Concur.
WinstonWolfe said:
Nothing is real........
Thanks for the explanation. My plan is absolutely contingent on forming solid relationships with people that I feel I can trust. If I can't find people who I believe are both trustworthy and highly competent, I won't do it. I agree this is an essential component.
i guess if it's a yield / income thing then great, but if you're looking for CG then i guess it may not be your thing because there's a dead-cat-bounce scenario building with house prices over there.
Actually, it's long-term capital growth and cashflow that I'm after - I want it all! :D My view is that if the properties are substantially cashflow positive, and I'm able to buy a few to spread the risk of vacancies etc, then the whole portfolio should be at least cashflow neutral, and hopefully still a bit positive. That buys me time to hold it and wait for the portfolio to become more cashflow positive (as rents rise), and I would think I'd gain some capital growth, too (even if not in the first few years, that's OK with me).

The properties I'm considering cost about $50K-ish, and earn around $250pw in rent ($12.5K pa gross, ie 25% gross yield). This is already a pretty cheap rental, in an area with low vacancies and multiple industries providing strong jobs, so it's hard to see that the rent could fall significantly. And with yields at 25% now, it's hard to see how the capital value could fall significantly below $50K. If the value drops, the yields will become so incredibly attractive that surely 1) more investors will enter the market, and/or 2) more people will buy rather than rent, both of which would tend to bring prices back up.

Yes, I know it's possible that the whole market will collapse so badly that people won't be able to borrow to buy even a $50K house. But I can live with that possibility. This would be a sign of such a global economic meltdown that it's hard to see that anybody would remain unaffected; we'll all have much bigger problems to deal with!
just noticed that Quiggles post was late 2004 - a lot has changed since then, especially with our new free trade agreement and ... well, all of 2007 ...
Yes, I've PM'd and emailed quiggles, to try and get an update, but no response yet. If anybody knows quiggles and has up-to-date contact details, I'd very much appreciate it if you could invite him to contribute to this thread, or ask him to PM me.

Thanks again to you all for your ongoing thought-provoking input. :)
 
The properties I'm considering cost about $50K-ish, and earn around $250pw in rent ($12.5K pa gross, ie 25% gross yield).

Are you sure you have your figures correct? 25% yield in a growing area with good long term prospects and low vacancies just seems unbelieveable! Are you relying on actual sales prices (as opposed to say advertised prices - which may be underquoted)? Is that rent obtainable on the same property (as compared to more expensive houses nearby in the same suburb)? If you're relying on stats such as medians etc then it mightn't be quite as it seems initially. Just seems rather high rent for house price....
 
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Are you sure you have your figures correct?
Yes, I'm sure, I have done my research, and no, I'm not using medians.

I'm not even targeting the bottom of the market; there are properties available in every major city of the USA for under $10K. If you look at realtor. com (their equivalent of realestate.com.au) you'll notice that their search brackets for price step up as follows: $0, $1000, $1400 :confused:, $2000, $5000, $10,000...

Here is an example right near the CBD of Atlanta, Georgia (not where I'm planning to invest), a 5BR quite cute looking place for $10K. The upstairs even looks livable, amazingly, though the ad acknowledges that the basement needs work. Think you could get $50 pw rent? That'll give you 25% gross yield.

Let me reiterate that I know nothing about this area, and I'm not making a recommendation: I'm just showing you how inexpensive some property at the lower end of the market is in the USA.

Why don't the prospective tenants buy it, and pay the mortgage instead of rent? Good question! I believe the main reasons are:

1) As with many young Australians now, they can't save a deposit. (Even though it's tiny relative to what would be required here.)

2) Their cashflow can't cope with the "lumpy" bills, ie annual property taxes, repairs etc. They have trouble enough making a constant payment, let alone the odd lump sum "extra".

3) They tend to move often to try and get away from creditors. :eek:

4) They don't qualify for a mortgage due to bad credit, or they could only get loans at high interest rates. They'd still be better off with the high interest rates, but see point 2. And yes, these credit problems do mean that you're going to have trouble getting your rent, too. Rental default is a much bigger issue in the USA than here.

5) The poor just don't have the culture of buying a house. In Australia, home ownership is something everybody aspires to; they just aspire to different homes. The USA has a much bigger difference between the middle class and the poor; the poor don't even aspire to home ownership (by and large). Heck, they can't get necessary medical treatment half the time - home ownership is way down their list of problems.

6) It's much easier for creditors to sell your house in the USA, such as the lender or the city/state (for overdue taxes, ie rates). When properties are sold in these circumstances, there seems to be little or no obligation on the creditor to get best price for the property - they usually sell them for just the amount owing, even if that's a fraction of the market value. :( Those with low incomes don't want to risk "investing" in an asset that they could so easily lose due to illness or job loss. There aren't anywhere near the safety nets for the poor in the USA as we have here.

So in summary, unfortunately for them, life's much harder for the poor in the USA than here in Australia, and that creates opportunities. Personally, I don't plan on buying foreclosures or tax lien sales. I don't think it would be unethical to do so - those properties will be sold anyway - I just don't feel comfortable participating in it. :eek:
 
Tracey, interested to know how you would be funding these purchases?

Is this through accessible equity here? Not sure how a non-resident in the US can get a loan, but maybe my info is wrong.
 
Sounds good Ozperp (apart from the defaults/creditors bit, which will no doubt become more common over here too). Hope it works out as well as you expect.
 
Tracey, interested to know how you would be funding these purchases?

Is this through accessible equity here? Not sure how a non-resident in the US can get a loan, but maybe my info is wrong.
Foreign national mortgage 70% LTV (sorry, LVR - trying to be bilingual).

For the 30%, we have a limited (<$100K) amount of cash (redrawn from equity here), but I will be trying very hard to instead get 30% "carryback" (vendor finance). Vendor finance is much more common in residential sales in the USA than here, particularly when you're purchasing from another investor.

We have a plan to obtain E-3 visas (special working visas for Australians; these are fantastic if you're not familiar - they're only a year or two old), then we can get SSNs, then we can get credit and build FICO scores etc, and by mid 2009 we should be able to qualify for conventional mortgage finance.

I have heard some say that getting credit can be very difficult for a "foreign alien", but others say that it's easy. If it does prove difficult, we are fortunate in having an immediate family member (hubby's brother, who married an American) who's a US citizen. He can apply for us to have a credit card on his account, and then guess what, we instantly "inherit" his FICO score. :cool:
 
Hi Ozperp

In the spirit of highlighting potential problems as requested, the economic uncertainty seems to be creating significant risks with unemployment, which IMO is a very significant driver of the property market, especially in the US.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23837212-664,00.html

There are good stats available on this website too:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

I agree employment risks are also pretty localised and can be looked at through each sector based on what's behind the area you look at, such as growth in the ag sector as pointed out by TC. Another way of identify risks and therefore also opportunities... good luck with it all!
 
INCREDIBLY good US real estate website

Wow, wish we had something like this in Australia. And yes, I know we can find all this data, but we don't have it all put together as conveniently as this... I've been using a site called Zillow.

You put in that you're looking for property of a certain description (beds, price etc) in a certain area (Atlanta for sake of example here) - so far same as realestate.com.au - but then this is the screen that comes up:

080613zillowsearchmap.jpg


Each little red house image obviously represents a house for sale, and its asking price. Then when you click on a house symbol for one that you're interested in - as I did with the $2K house in the above image, you get a whole lot of information (much more comprehensive than realestate.com.au, including all the materials the home is constructed of, neighbourhood demographics, past sales, schools, crime, statistics etc). But what I was particularly in love with is if you click on "map and birds eye view", you get this :eek::

060813zillowbirdseye.jpg


The top image is great for getting a feel of the neighbourhood - but how awesome is that bottom one? It shows a map of the immediate vicinity with the values of all the surrounding homes (an intelligent estimate based on past sale price, taxable value, and market movement).

Now just imagine if realestate.com.au were this good.... :)

There are a bunch of other real estate websites that I've found useful, if anybody else is interested in this market. But wow, this Zillow is really powerful. :cool:
 
Wow, wish we had something like this in Australia. And yes, I know we can find all this data, but we don't have it all put together as conveniently as this... I've been using a site called Zillow.

Interesting site!! I do wish we had something like this in Oz!! I'm not sure how accurate it is though - I just put my parents home address in there. They've been trying to sell for 3 years, taking their house on and off the market (just put it back on yesterday actually). "Zillow" is valuing it $200k over any offer they've received to date (which have all fallen through). I know it's not comparing it to any recent sales, as there hasn't been a sale in the suburb in the last 18 months! I do think it maybe looking at property tax rate values though - as that's the value my parents have had to pay tax on for 4 years and they've been going through the courts to try and prove what a ridiculous valuation it is! (Can't sell it for $200k less than property tax valuation!). Courts haven't agreed yet....

Ozprep - I'm not sure what area of the USA you're looking into investing, and I'm sure there are certainly bargains to be had, especially in this market - but I strongly suggest going over to visit the areas you're looking in before making any decisions - best of luck with it all and I'm sure with plenty of research you'll do fine - but don't listen to any 'buying overseas investor groups' type things - go there as a local, meet the locals, and buy as a local. Sure things may look ridiculously cheap from across the world - but if they still look expensive to a local, you might be losing money.


Cheers,
Jen
 
I'm not sure how accurate it is though
Yes, agreed. I'm discovering some of the values are pretty "iffy". I still think being able to look at the house and neighbourhood from all those angles is awesome, though, which is what I really love. :)
JenD said:
I strongly suggest going over to visit the areas you're looking in before making any decisions - best of luck with it all and I'm sure with plenty of research you'll do fine - but don't listen to any 'buying overseas investor groups' type things - go there as a local, meet the locals, and buy as a local.
My thoughts exactly, and "will do". Thanks for taking the time to provide your input. :)
 
Foreign national mortgage 70% LTV (sorry, LVR - trying to be bilingual).

For the 30%, we have a limited (<$100K) amount of cash (redrawn from equity here), but I will be trying very hard to instead get 30% "carryback" (vendor finance). Vendor finance is much more common in residential sales in the USA than here, particularly when you're purchasing from another investor.

We have a plan to obtain E-3 visas (special working visas for Australians; these are fantastic if you're not familiar - they're only a year or two old), then we can get SSNs, then we can get credit and build FICO scores etc, and by mid 2009 we should be able to qualify for conventional mortgage finance.

I have heard some say that getting credit can be very difficult for a "foreign alien", but others say that it's easy. If it does prove difficult, we are fortunate in having an immediate family member (hubby's brother, who married an American) who's a US citizen. He can apply for us to have a credit card on his account, and then guess what, we instantly "inherit" his FICO score. :cool:

Hi Tracey,

following this thread with interest, and as you've said; there will be VERY good opportunities there for the prepared. We didn't invest, as we were in the middle of a long settlement on our block of land while over there, and we didn't want to jeopardise settlement on it. I was like a kid in a lolly (sorry; "candy") shop with no pocket money. Yes, there is vendor finance etc, but my risk profile is low, and we had no debts, so therefore no FICO score to obtain finance at a decent rate (at all). The lower your FICO score, the higher the interest rate is. Something around 700 or higher is good.

Here's my view on your plans (a good one once you work through the red tape and factor all the risks/downside).

- To get a credit score, you need to go into debt, and be a good payer. You won't get a traditional credit card until around 9 months after you arrive and start living, but you can get a "secured" credit card on day 1, which is basically a debit card, but the spending counts as debt for the purposes of the FICO score. You may have trouble getting a Bank account without a SS number though. We didn't, because the agency my wife worked for had already teed up a lot of the paperwork before hand, and we were Resident Aliens with Green Cards - not Visas.

- It takes around 3 weeks to get a SS card, so apply as soon as you arrive. Google the Social Security offices nearest to where you live, and be prepared for a wait of up to 2 hours. I did some work for the agency while over there, and had to escort several nurses to the SS office, and I found that the best time to get there was around 10.00am.
Without an SSN, getting things like electricity, gas, water, phones, internet, cars, is hard. They may do it, but they will ask for significant cash deposits first. Mobile phone dealers want around $4-500 up front as an example (we just bought pre-paids as we are not mobile phone users generally), and we had to put down a $150 deposit for our electricity; gas was another amount, but can't remember it.

- If you can, get a car on a lease and start your FICO score building with that; most people lease cars, and they are pretty cheap. We just paid cash for our sec/hand one when we got there.

- With real estate, there is usually an agent for the buyer, and one for the seller, and the conveyancing is done through an "escrow" company, so pay a visit to a few and ask them what the procedures are; it is a bit different to our systems here.

- It sounds as though you are looking at country towns near to bigger cities? I think this is a good strategy in many areas, as the cost of housing in larger cities is generally expensive, but the average American is prepared, like us Aussies, to live further out and pay less and commute, so these closer proximity towns will enjoy some good growth long term. Having said that, I noticed very few to almost no sales while we were in Santa Rosa (10 months) - it's 1 hour from San Fran and had seen some excellent growth from 2000 to 2006, but we were there from June 2007 onwards; in the height of the sub-prime mess, so there were few buyers. This means lots of choice and no competition for someone like you ;). Places within 1 hour of cities like LA, San Fran, Houston is worth a look, and most of Florida has melted down, so could be an option for the longer term, as people always want to live there - the prices won't be down forever. Many rural towns are contracting as farming and other industries either wind down, or corporatise and shed jobs, and people are leaving them and moving to the cities, so watch the population movements in your selected area for a while.

- Property management is a major issue for single family dwellings such as houses and townhouses. It seems as though there is little structure for this compared to Aus. If you are able, it may be better (from a management aspect) to go for apartment buildings where there is a manager in place onsite. This is fairly widespread, whilst from my observation the single family dwellings are self-managed by the investor. Not good for you.

- The US tax system considers ALL income from all over the world into your tax returns, so as soon as you arrive find a good tax accountant who is versed in property investment to help you set up your structures. We had US earned income, so our situation was different to what yours may be. We only had rental income and deductions from Aus, but it was factored into our US returns.
 
Thought I might give those of you who are interested an update. I continue pursuing this with great enthusiasm and am learning a lot. I'm planning on heading to the US within the next few months, and the more I learn about my chosen area, the more confident that I am that it's going to be a great place to invest.

A summary of the major differences, as I see it:

1) Cash flow expectations

Cash flow positive properties are far more common, to the extent that they're the norm; they consider investing in a negatively geared property in anticipation of appreciation as really quite extreme, risky behaviour. :D Appreciation is just the icing on the cake, but most investors aim to replace their jobs from rental income, rather than generate sufficient equity to retire on.

There are only a few markets where cash flow negative properties are widespread, eg Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada - all the ones that had the biggest booms, and there's a widespread view amongst investors that the reason those markets have crashed so badly is because yields below, say, 10-15% gross are simply unsustainably low.

2) Attitude to property management

Because rental income rather than equity growth is the primary focus of investing, US investors place a much heavier emphasis on landlording. The vast majority of them seem to self-manage; "investor" seems to be synonymous with "landlord/property manager" over there. They assume that all investors collect rents in cash, take phone calls from tenants, write up paperwork, place ads for tenants, etc. :eek:

3) Local focus

Because so many self-manage, they also tend to stick to their own areas much more than we do. Managing from a distance is considered quite extreme behaviour. If there aren't good investment opportunities within 30 minutes' drive, the consensus seems to be that one should move!

4) Professional property management

As a result of all of the above, property management companies - which generally aren't associated with real estate agencies in the USA - are more scarce, and good ones seem even harder to find than they are here.

5) Rules of thumb

Some of their rules of thumb make for interesting comparison to our property investing scene, and highlight the differences quite well:

* "2% rule" - a property will probably be cash flow positive if the rental (which in the US is specified per month) is 2% of purchase price - note that's a 24% gross yield - and these are widespread, incidentally!

* "50% rule" - expenses (property taxes, repairs, PM fees, utilities, insurances etc) tend to be approximately 50% of the gross rent - so if you're getting your 24% gross yield, you'd be anticipating an approximately 12% net yield ("cap rate")

* "$100 per door" - Many investors consider that a deal is not worthwhile unless your monthly net positive cash flow is $100 per "door" (ie per house, or per unit - ie per tenancy, basically)

6) Finance

Whoa, finance is entirely different. Here's a ripper - commercial finance goes to higher LTVs than resi! As a "foreign alien" without a FICO score, my primary financing options initially will be:

i. An asset-based commercial loan (for blocks of units for example; or interestingly can also be used for a portfolio of houses) - can get 80% LTV (LVR) on the basis of the asset's value alone (but only 70% for houses)

ii. "Hard money" - the USA has lots of hard money lenders (HMLs) that are essentially private financiers. They have higher interest rates than traditional mortgages and are generally for short-term loans. They also tend to be very localised, specialising in a county, for example, and because of their extensive knowledge of real estate in that county, they'll look at deals that traditional lenders might not. They seem to be particularly useful for borrowing against GRV (gross realisation value).

I've somewhat changed my mind from my earlier thoughts regarding single-family residences (SFR, or houses), and am now focused on multi-family properties. In particular, I'm now looking only at properties with > 15 doors, with on-site management, where I can own the entire complex. My reasons revolve around reducing management overhead, focusing on an area and getting to know it well, the relative ease of obtaining commercial finance for these deals, and having to find only one good PM who can manage all my properties.
 
Thought I might give those of you who are interested an update. I continue pursuing this with great enthusiasm and am learning a lot. I'm planning on heading to the US within the next few months, and the more I learn about my chosen area, the more confident that I am that it's going to be a great place to invest.

A summary of the major differences, as I see it:


* "2% rule" - a property will probably be cash flow positive if the rental (which in the US is specified per month) is 2% of purchase price - note that's a 24% gross yield - and these are widespread, incidentally!

* "50% rule" - expenses (property taxes, repairs, PM fees, utilities, insurances etc) tend to be approximately 50% of the gross rent - so if you're getting your 24% gross yield, you'd be anticipating an approximately 12% net yield ("cap rate")

I'm reading this with interest - I have no desire to invest in the US - it sounds like way too many traps - but how on earth are those sort of yields sustainable? Surely no-one would rent a place when they could buy it for only 4 years rent!
 
I'm reading this with interest - I have no desire to invest in the US - it sounds like way too many traps - but how on earth are those sort of yields sustainable? Surely no-one would rent a place when they could buy it for only 4 years rent!
To an Aussie, with our mindset, I agree. But they have an entirely different attitude to housing, more disadvantaged poor, and different tax structures. Our "poor" are much better off than the USA's poor. A much higher proportion of US citizens wouldn't be able to save the deposit (a year's rental!), can't get a mortgage (bad credit), or have no credit availability as they're "illegal aliens" (about 10M of them :eek:). It's also much easier for lenders to foreclose in the USA than here, and they're terrified of losing their home if they do buy it. There are lots of differences in our social security and employment markets that make it much harder for the poor in the USA to buy.

The yields vary significantly depending on which state, but in the states that didn't overheat (ie other than California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida), you're very approximately looking at gross yields in major cities as follows:

single family homes - lower-class neighbourhood 15-20%, middle-upper 8-15%
multi-family (apartments etc) - lower-class neighbourhood 20-30%, middle-upper 10-17%

You also have to remember that their ownership costs include property taxes which are very high, and this keeps rents up. So if you own a $150K house, your mortgage payment may be $650 per month, but you have to add another $350 per month to cover property taxes, insurances, etc. Repairs perhaps another $300 per month. So at $1300 per month, ownership costs run just over 10%. US investors, as stated previously, very much have a mindset that investments must be cashflow positive, so this 10% level pretty much puts a floor on rentals. The lower class the neighbourhood, the more risk of vacancies and property damages, so the higher the premium is that one needs to add on top of this base to ensure the investment continues to pay for itself.
 
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