A Giant Iguana.... looking to upgrade to a Norco soon... mountain bikes incase you're confused.....
Well l was confused but a giant Iguana still sounds pretty cool .
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A Giant Iguana.... looking to upgrade to a Norco soon... mountain bikes incase you're confused.....
Back onto Shadow's theory of Sydney outperforming in the near future, looking at these graphs I can see how prices could rise there, particularly if commodities drop off and people and money flow back to Sydney.....
These are median housing costs as a percentage of income, by city. Home owning costs are based on 100% loan for a median house, renting is based on the average 3br house rent. We can probably pick holes in the chosen criteria, but it does provide some indication as to how close we are to peaks in affordability, on a city by city basis.
This chart was provided by Foundation, he has been known to make mistakes on the rare occasion, but he does provide some useful stuff.
Same chart with real dollars instead of percentage of income:
It seems to me Sydney and Melbourne can go higher, Darwin and Perth seem to be reaching their limits, not surprising really. It also shows rents have been dropping in real terms, renters should be able to afford more.
I didn't vote. Just voted now. Strangely enough the number for that one moved to 3!
our fully paid inner-city PPOR (which made a mind blowing 6-fold increase of what my wife paid in 1993), our 2 GC houses (which each made a nice 30% over the couple of years we had them) and even my rather conservative stock portfolio.
Well we did it.
3br cedar cottage on 2200sqm of flat rich-red/brown-volcanic-loam partly rainforested land in North Tamborine.
Don't forget the guns and other weapons ...We still have plenty left over and that has been going into taking us off the utilities grid as much as possible and setting up extensive self-sustaining Permaculture on our 10 best acres. The leftover will be going into bullion.
Sorry folks, but the party is well and truly coming to an end. Sub-Prime in the US is just the tip of iceberg that the world economy is in the process of colliding with.
I believe we are heading not for just a recession, but the second Global Depression which will be longer and harder than the first one. Changing Boomer demographics will soon exhaust the supply of investment funds (this prediction from 4 years ago is unfolding now http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/pi_article_feb2004.pdf). Peak-Oil will exhaust the supply of cheap easy energy and the $100 barrel we are seeing is nothing compared to what's coming. Not forgetting the almost 7 billion people infesting the planet, many of whom a striving for 'middle-class' aspirations and will soon exhaust the tiny remaining margins of food, water and everything else.
But it's not all bad news. Well, no, actually it's not all bad news for me. I really would like to thank everyone here for making this wonderful housing bubble happen, I really really do! But I always knew it would end and am really surprised it has lasted as long as it has - greed is such an amazing economic engine. During 2007 we have cashed in all of our boom time investments - our fully paid inner-city PPOR (which made a mind blowing 6-fold increase of what my wife paid in 1993), our 2 GC houses (which each made a nice 30% over the couple of years we had them) and even my rather conservative stock portfolio. By October we walked away with enough to outright purchase our dream home on 23 acres of lush fertile secluded land that is still within commute of the city (which doesn't really apply as I telecommute 3 out of 5 days) . We still have plenty left over and that has been going into taking us off the utilities grid as much as possible and setting up extensive self-sustaining Permaculture on our 10 best acres. The leftover will be going into bullion.
I'm breathing easy for the first time in my adult life - I now have everything I want and feel absolutely zero need to try reach that magic waterfront showboat home that so many of my peers are killing themselves to get to. I'm dept free with a wonderful family and ultra low-cost lifestyle -Just in time to celebrate the big 4-0 this year and then sit back and watch (from a nice safe 150kms) the fun unfold.
As for anyone still in the city and with evaporating equity and believing they will be able to service unsustainable debt in a soon-to-be declining employment market, well sorry but no amount of positive talking or denial from the sprukers here is going to change the fact that you are in for some serious trouble ahead.
Sorry folks, but the party is well and truly coming to an end. Sub-Prime in the US is just the tip of iceberg that the world economy is in the process of colliding with.
I believe we are heading not for just a recession, but the second Global Depression which will be longer and harder than the first one. Changing Boomer demographics will soon exhaust the supply of investment funds (this prediction from 4 years ago is unfolding now http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/pi_article_feb2004.pdf). Peak-Oil will exhaust the supply of cheap easy energy and the $100 barrel we are seeing is nothing compared to what's coming. Not forgetting the almost 7 billion people infesting the planet, many of whom a striving for 'middle-class' aspirations and will soon exhaust the tiny remaining margins of food, water and everything else.
But it's not all bad news. Well, no, actually it's not all bad news for me. .
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&While I believe that property goes up over the long term, keep in mind that it CAN fall for years. Those are the times when people lose heart, sell, or are forced to because they bought at stupid yields and can't pay their mortgages. While the stupid prices of yesterday seem like bargains today, you still have to survive through the intervening years first.
Extreme bearishnesses isn't going to make you rich. Extreme bullishness will cause you to take stupid risks. A bit of caution is good, especially in times like these.
Alex
I agree with Alex that "property goes up over the long term... that it CAN fall for years.". This has been the real life experience seen in a number of Asian countries like Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong whose present housing price has yet to recover to its previous market peak after 10 or more years already.
3. I suspect we are also presently witnessing the real time un-winding of the similar housing slumps presently that are happening in the USA, UK, Spanish housing markets etc as well as in the other OECD countries.
*********************Just because you and I agree that there will be a bust doesn’t mean we agree on the duration, Kenneth. I’m not selling anything that I own. In fact, I’m going to buy more, and I’m going to start soon. Do I see the possibility of a 10 year bust in Australia? I’m not discounting the possibility, but I think it’s slim. Do I have the academic studies etc that you usually ask for? No. It’s a gut feel only.
Alex