Will Brisbane catch up to other the major cities?

[YPG]

Because Brisbane prices are considerably lower than say Melbourne or Sydney, I was wondering can we expect significant increases in value as Brisbane attempts to catch up with these bigger cities via salaries increase/population growth/new and improved existing infrastructure/etc. or will Brisbane always be the little brother to Melbourne and Sydney?

As Sydney grows - will more people move to other major cities? Such as Brisbane? Or are people more likely to continue to move further out to secondary CBDs? like parramatta, newcastle, etc.?

I would appreciate any information you guys can tell me.

Cheers

 

[eeew]

Because Brisbane prices are considerably lower than say Melbourne or Sydney, I was wondering can we expect significant increases in value as Brisbane attempts to catch up with these bigger cities via salaries increase/population growth/new and improved existing infrastructure/etc. or will Brisbane always be the little brother to Melbourne and Sydney?

As Sydney grows - will more people move to other major cities? Such as Brisbane? Or are people more likely to continue to move further out to secondary CBDs? like parramatta, new castle, etc.?

I would appreciate any information you guys can tell me.

Cheers

My prediction is that brisbane will have only moderate population growth in the next 5 years. It will mostly be little brother to melbourne and syd.

The main reason is simply jobs. Take away mining [ which accounts for about 5% of jobs out there], and brisbane cannot match the diversity, depth and money of syd/mel in the jobs department. This alone will likely see mel/syd as the preferred places for not only international migration, but domestic as well.
Thus, most of the pop growth will be in mel/syd, perhaps mel more as it is generally cheaper than syd.

As you mentioned in your post, the 'secondary' CBD's of newcastle etc will experience strong growth- especially those who cannot/do not want to live in the cbd of mel/syd.

 

[dilberto]

The main reason is simply jobs. Take away mining [ which accounts for about 5% of jobs out there], and brisbane cannot match the diversity, depth and money of syd/mel in the jobs department. ...

Not trying to troll here, I'm legitimately intrigued. Why would taking away 5% have such a huge impact?

 

[spludgey]

Not trying to troll here, I'm legitimately intrigued. Why would taking away 5% have such a huge impact?

Mining would probably shift the average wage upwards a fair amount.

 

[Ausprop]

at present we are drifting along in a lala dream land. From what I hear the resources activity in Queensland is incredible. This will have a gravitational effect and the diversity will follow. (alternatively it will implode and hello 1990 all over again). No one really knows what the south east does but I am sure it will amble along in some fashion. Canberra has the bonus of being drip fed from the Canberra gravy train, so there are no risks there. FWIW Steve reckons Brisbane will be the strongest pulling out of this slump and his forecast makes sense

 

[HandyAndy888]

I think the typical time frame for the 'Brisbane Correction' is two years after Sydney. It happened in 2003 and in 2007.

I think possibly in 2013, we will see about 100K added to the average price.

 

[Marck8]

Hi ,
Ive just joined,
Am I allowed to post links? This economist just came out with this story. I checked him out, he's doing a PHD and does not appear to have any property links. Anyway its interesting, for what it's worth:

http://www.apimagazine.com.au/api-o...ds-hottest-property-markets-queensland-and-wa

So yes Brisbane and Perth are both growing, populations will go up, Brisbane has not seen much growth over the past few years in prices, yet rents are quite high now, a "catch up" coming perhaps?

 

[IFBB]

Personally i think that is farfetched.

I have an uncle who owns some retail businesses in Brisbane, and he says he hasnt seen it so bad in 10 years. Also, i dont think the flow-on effect from the upcoming "mining boom" is enough to see a 15-25% rise in the next few years. People are doing it tough as it is, let alone with an added $80K added to the average house price.

Possibly tight groups of areas in QLD and WA may see some increases, such as the hubs themselves, but i doubt the capital cities will see a flow on of such high percentage rises.

Who knows though, interest rates could drop another 1.5-2%, and we can start the roller coaster ride all over again.

EDIT:

Also, being from API, i doubt you would find an unbiased article in it. He may not have ties with property, but its just another personal opinion.

 

[eeew]

Not trying to troll here, I'm legitimately intrigued. Why would taking away 5% have such a huge impact?

because mining accounts for only about 5% of the jobs out there...not everyone is qualified to work in mining industries, and certainly not everyone wants to.

Mining investment will gradually flow to the broader economy, but this takes time. I think we have seen very small amounts to date, and this will grow but will take time. There are long lead times to pull stuff out of the ground, process it, ship it to china, get the cash, distribute it, etc...

Brisbane will do well in this regard, no dounbt. However, mel and syd also have mining inflows. for instance, BHP is based outta melbourne.

I was referring to the diversity and quantity of jobs mainly- brisbane cannot match the diversity and sheer number of them [ expecially non mining]available as compared to brisbane. As such, I expect the property market to be stronger in mel/syd than brisbane in 5-7 yrs out.
However, in the near term [ 6-12 months], its possible that brisbane will outperform mel/syd. But in longer term horizons, mel/syd should retain their advantage. Since prop is a longer term investment, id stick to mel/syd over brisbane.

 

[Nth Brisbanite]

However, in the near term [ 6-12 months], its possible that brisbane will outperform mel/syd. But in longer term horizons, mel/syd should retain their advantage. Since prop is a longer term investment, id stick to mel/syd over brisbane.

If you look at the figures over the last 10 years, Brisbane has performed as well or outperformed Melbourne and Sydney.