Will property dump - please VOTE everyone

[blaster]

Depends on how you define "dump".

Dump as in like the US housing market?

Unlikely.

But certainly a correction is in the making.

Other responses have mentioned our undersupply of property => upward pressure on rents => floor protecting the real estate market from the sort of correction the US is experiencing.

Once confidence returns (and it won't take long, all things considered), then I would expect that house prices will start working their way up (esp as the rent v buy decision becomes more in favour of buy).

I also think the sharemarket volatility of the last year will put people off the asx for a while (particularly older investors) - in due course, they'll be looking for somewhere else to put their money.

Well , I use the word dump because I also day trade so I'm pretty familiar with the term .
But naah not suggesting a US scenario that's a very big and very individual abortion in the finer print IMO they've managed all on their own .
Bushy should write a book after this - how to totally r'''t a nation from every angle in record time !
But for us , are major corrections coming none the less especially if the US's latest rubber bullets don't do the trick ?
Cheers

 

[josko]

For what it's worth, I have just had three real estate agents through my property.

One R/E said he just had dinner with two top guys from the NAB and another from St George. They are all talking D&G. This agent says there is a Recession coming and if you're cashed up to buy in 6 months, you'll get some real bargains. It is interesting to note that this particular agent deals with beachfront properties over the 3mil mark. He said his office is the deadest it has been in his whole career. (Probably because he is so damn negative- didn't want him selling my house!)

The other two agents say we ARE at the bottom and Interest rates, Share Market crashes etc are all leading to the next upswing. Sales ahve increased over the past two weeks and nothing around the coast priced between 350-500k is lasting.

As good or as bad as this might be, I can only take history as an example and tend to believe that we have flattened in property. I doubt very much that we will see a dump in property the likes of what the USA has had.

I don't know about anyone else, but my ASX bank shares bounced back to $1.50 more than I bought them for just over a month ago. Emphasis on ASX.

So make your own judgement, as we do anyway. I would say that economists are on edge and we have a hard couple of months ahead with many conflicting opinions. The fact is noone knows.

I'm consolidating.......and because I don't really know what is going to happen, I'm preparing for any event.

regards Jo

 

[craigb]

mmm! interesting you say that, my re agent says nothing afer 500k is lasting more than a week but every thing over is'nt getting any enquiries.
i doubt that any one saw this coming as these cercumstances are realy diferant this time.ie 6 months ago i was expecting to pay $2 a lt for petrol, but has'nt happened yet?

 

[josko]

mmm! interesting you say that, my re agent says nothing afer 500k is lasting more than a week but every thing over is'nt getting any enquiries.
i doubt that any one saw this coming as these cercumstances are realy diferant this time.ie 6 months ago i was expecting to pay $2 a lt for petrol, but has'nt happened yet?

Craig,

Your spelling is atrocious! LOL!

Do you mean nothing UNDER 500k? Is this the bottom end of your market?

I think what is happening, is that the lower end in the market of any suburb are the properties selling.

Regards Jo

 

[blaster]

Craig,

Your spelling is atrocious! LOL!

Do you mean nothing UNDER 500k? Is this the bottom end of your market?

I think what is happening, is that the lower end in the market of any suburb are the properties selling.

Regards Jo

Round here they're saying any upmarket coastal stuff isn't moving at all , especially the holiday house variety .
But inland anything around the 200k mark is moving - anything over is stagnating !

Cheers

 

[craigb]

Yes the bottom end in ACT is under 500k, and yes my spelling is realy bad, private schooling??? dad still want's his money back, as he is an editor of a few news papers,can't blame him? But i'm good with a hammer, and that's what counts for me.

 

[grossreal]

hi craigb
if need be I can give you a bit of asssitance with grammer
as alot here can tell you I am renouned for my skills in this department and just to assist a fellow somersoft person here is a few .... and ,,, and a couple of



these can be used any time you read my posts.
will the market tank dump or correct.
the simple answer is yes
the question is when
and thats alot harder to answer.
and thats when people try to guess
markets move all the time and we are in a market that is shifting quicker the quick sand.
and if you are in a desert and see this shifting sand you will understand.
will the us dump will the chinese flood the market will 3 trillion thats in the big bank account
will bred come into our market and play silly buggers with our banking system
will the banks tell us the truth about how much they have lost.
will the euro stand up when its is pegged to the old german deuch bank note and if the germans go backwards so does the euro
will the indians with there trillion that they need to get rid of before the new government come in decide to come here and not short the share market but short the companies direct ie we will give half the value of the assett
will mr rudd talk to the indo chinese and instead of fruit picker open up darwin as a part of indo china to bring in not only pickers but investment.
answer all of the above and then and only then can I work out how this market is moving.
the us will correct and I am looking at there market for a very different reason.
but for me this market and this is just me and should not in anyway be used in anyform of investing at all and I strongly recommend that you do not use this system unless you understand it.
I increase my lvr and max them out if I can get 90 lvr I do
I use the cash flow into other income streams to cover my position
and I then look for other opportunities that come along and use those to add to my income streams
now these can add debt and do.
and I use multi lenders.
now a bank will sell to get there money but if a market corrects and your position does not cover the debt then you keep covering the repayments
yes your lvr is out the window but you can show your spread and your income streams to cover your position.
and one stream can get it but unlikely they all will and
to hedge one stream is for some thing that the correcting market wants and in my case cash or mezz funding.
so one stream increases in demand as the others correct.
so its a balancing act.
do banks like it
no
but then again not a great lover of bank either so no love lost.
they are a means to an end.
and when they pick up their socks I might like them better.
but that me.
I hope you all well and
I see this market correcting
the issue for me is when and why and all the reasons above would change my investment angle.

 

[Aaron Sice]

nice post GR.

i won;t bother passing an opinion on this, because this thread is like asking "is this a reddy pink or a pinky red?

too many variables.

sorry but i plan to sit tight and adapt to changes as they occur, if they occur and when they occur.

 

[Rixter]

i won;t bother passing an opinion on this, because this thread is like asking "is this a reddy pink or a pinky red?

too many variables.

Exactly......futile waste of time.

 

[blaster]

Yes the bottom end in ACT is under 500k, and yes my spelling is realy bad, private schooling??? dad still want's his money back, as he is an editor of a few news papers,can't blame him? But i'm good with a hammer, and that's what counts for me.

Don't worry mate I'm good with a hammer too but if it wasn't for the spell checker I'd be scr'''''''d


Cheers

 

[blaster]

nice post GR.

i won;t bother passing an opinion on this, because this thread is like asking "is this a reddy pink or a pinky red?

too many variables.

sorry but i plan to sit tight and adapt to changes as they occur, if they occur and when they occur.

Yep seeing now it's in the too hard basket - GOT a better idea - new thread - 'what is selling in your area and what isn't ?
Will start
Cheers

 

[sash]

Jo,

I can confirm this...I have been bottom feeding (scavenger!!! ) in certain Sydney suburbs and have noticed the same thing. The median for the units in the suburbs I am looking at in Sydney are in the low 200s but the bottom end units sell for 160-175k and there is a lot of competition for these. I am finding by the time a call the RE agent...they have been sold!!

Stuff which had trouble selling for 140-155k are now selling at auction for 170-180k....that is in a period of less than 12 months. I think that first home buyers are the ones that are drving these prices as they have worked out paying 260-280pw is amost paying off a mortgage with a 5-10% deposit!

By the same token ....stuff in the better suburbs are sluggish so are rents...that they went up strongly and have now leveled off. I suspect the rents will also level off in the cheaper suburbs shortly...who would have thought you would get 240-280pw for crappy 2br units in Bansktown and Auburn! I am told that for people to come to Australia they need to have funds for two years to support themselves....this maybe adding to the demand as they seemed cashed up!

cheers
Sash

I think what is happening, is that the lower end in the market of any suburb are the properties selling.
Regards Jo

 

[Aaron Sice]

Jo,

I can confirm this...I have been bottom feeding (scavenger!!! ) in certain Sydney suburbs and have noticed the same thing. The median for the units in the suburbs I am looking at in Sydney are in the low 200s but the bottom end units sell for 160-175k and there is a lot of competition for these. I am finding by the time a call the RE agent...they have been sold!!

Stuff which had trouble selling for 140-155k are now selling at auction for 170-180k....that is in a period of less than 12 months. I think that first home buyers are the ones that are drving these prices as they have worked out paying 260-280pw is amost paying off a mortgage with a 5-10% deposit!

By the same token ....stuff in the better suburbs are sluggish so are rents...that they went up strongly and have now leveled off. I suspect the rents will also level off in the cheaper suburbs shortly...who would have thought you would get 240-280pw for crappy 2br units in Bansktown and Auburn! I am told that for people to come to Australia they need to have funds for two years to support themselves....this maybe adding to the demand as they seemed cashed up!

cheers
Sash

and therein lies a floor in a micromarket.

 

[grossreal]

hi sash
you are talking about students and the rule is that you have to have 1.5 times the cost for you to live in australia and you have to have that up front.
and for those out there that have these people give me a call
as I have a group that is funding the students to buy of these deposits and they have to leave the cash in there country of origin and we equity lend off the deposit it that country.
this is not aust bank lending this is private international lending.
and we leverage off there deposit they get to buy here and there deposit forms part of the purchase.
its a very interesting project and I think it will be very success full just a bit early at this stage but yes it does go into the lower end of the market.
just a side line

 

[fatboy4]

No

No "dump"

Economists have successfully predicted 29 of the last 3 recessions.

 

[MarkandTina]

No "dump"

Economists have successfully predicted 29 of the last 3 recessions.

Thanks for the laugh

 

[blaster]

Jo,

I can confirm this...I have been bottom feeding (scavenger!!! ) in certain Sydney suburbs and have noticed the same thing. The median for the units in the suburbs I am looking at in Sydney are in the low 200s but the bottom end units sell for 160-175k and there is a lot of competition for these. I am finding by the time a call the RE agent...they have been sold!!

Stuff which had trouble selling for 140-155k are now selling at auction for 170-180k....that is in a period of less than 12 months. I think that first home buyers are the ones that are drving these prices as they have worked out paying 260-280pw is amost paying off a mortgage with a 5-10% deposit!

By the same token ....stuff in the better suburbs are sluggish so are rents...that they went up strongly and have now leveled off. I suspect the rents will also level off in the cheaper suburbs shortly...who would have thought you would get 240-280pw for crappy 2br units in Bansktown and Auburn! I am told that for people to come to Australia they need to have funds for two years to support themselves....this maybe adding to the demand as they seemed cashed up!

cheers
Sash

Hey Sash - I'm kidnapping your line ' bottom feeding ' That one should be rule number one in the investors manual I reckon . Perfect