With all the doom and gloom - is anyone buying?

ralph wiggum

ralph wiggum

It seems to me, from reading this forum, newspapers, magazines etc that the consensus is that property will be flat for at least a couple of years (some forumites think it might be closer to 10). Interest rates have started to rise, prices have peaked in most areas, and land tax for some is a big issue. So my questions are - Who out there is investing in Australian property RIGHT NOW?
and for those who are;
Where do you see opportunities RIGHT NOW? Why do you think RIGHT NOW is a good time to buy?
 
ralph wiggum said:
Who out there is investing in Australian property RIGHT NOW?
Click to expand...
Not me. Now MAY be a good time to buy, but next year will be better, and the following years even better......
IF I came across a quality c/f+ve growth prop I'd consider it, but it hasn't happened lately.
IMO other asset classes offer better short & medium term returns.
 
I checked out a commercial deal over the weekend but have shelved the idea. It just didn't stack up. May look up Charlies Trousers and see what I can see :eek:

T
 
maybe

I reckon we could see a fair big drop quickly and then it will plateau for a few years. Maybe its a good time to buy a PPOR (for those renting) and plough money into it over the next few years. Kind of like enforced savings...

Investment properties - income levels still to low for me to jump...

Interestingly 'the age' on the weekend quoted some economist who has picked all the recent booms (and busts) as stating that the share market is about to boom 3 fold/300 pct over the next 5 years. Dont wanna miss out on that so will have some money always to take advantgage should this happen.
 
ralph wiggum said:
So my questions are - Who out there is investing in Australian property RIGHT NOW? and for those who are; Where do you see opportunities RIGHT NOW? Why do you think RIGHT NOW is a good time to buy?
Click to expand...

If you utilise a long term buy & hold as one of your strategies, then right now , yesterday, and tommorrow will always be the right time to buy.

I see a huge future market demand in the Baby boomer / empty nester market place. If one markets to these type ppl not only in the property market but also ALL other demands for services/products by this group you will be well poised for success.

I use Growth Cycle Averaging (GCA) as one of my investing strategies and have just recently bought another IP. It basic premise is Time in the cycle NOT timing the cycle.

As I have said before I look to buy new or near new, good quality, well located IP. By doing so you really cant miss out long term provided you are buying at FMV or bellow & can service your portfolio cashflows along the way.

Sustaining cashflows (via this & other aset classes) is just one part of a balanced investment structure.
 
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As only having a PPOR and getting finances in tow, ready for purchase, I agree with RIXTER, as said it is the time time in the cycle that will heal all mistakes.

So with that said if and when I can find a deal that stacks up and looks like a good buy, I possible would be tempted

Alv
 
The market has cooled substantially. The sellers and buyers mood has changed from optimistic to pessimistic. This means that there should be some good buying around.

Those desperate sellers are now prepared to negotiate. Therefore go in with low offers.

What do you have to loose as there are many deals around.
 
Some sure fire ways to tell when it's time to buy are....

When all the pub talk is 100% shares, it's time to buy property. [Like in March 2000. March 2003, pub talk was 100% property].

When you can drive from Broadbeach to Southport, on the Gold Coast, and not see a single construction crane.

When your builder mates are traveling around Australia for six months, or are retraining to become School teachers. Or it only takes 1 day to get a builder.

When you can buy quality possitively geared property in the suburbs and big regional centers. Currently it's only rat infested 45 year old fibro shacks in Woop Woop that need restumping.

It will be time to buy before any of these events happen, but These are sure fire ways.


Hey Aussierouge.

If the sharemarket goes up 300%, I will miss out. I'll be out soon.

See ya's
 
Sailesh Channan said:
The market has cooled substantially. The sellers and buyers mood has changed from optimistic to pessimistic. This means that there should be some good buying around.

Those desperate sellers are now prepared to negotiate. Therefore go in with low offers.

What do you have to loose as there are many deals around.
Click to expand...

I agree

Talking to a lot of people about real estate, a lot of sellers are telling me that the marlet is dropping. I'm not sure it has locally yet or even if it will. However, a lot of the major RE related news stories we get here refer to the larger population centres but Average Joe relates them to their own property and they're more willing to listen to reason when listing their property or more willing to negatiate more to get a sale, depending on their circumstances.

Average time to sell is also getting longer and therefore there's a lot more on the market now than we've had for a while giving us more supply. As the demand is now getting a little less. That will of course lead us back to a buyers market, a good time to be cashed up.

Cheers


:cool:
 
I don't believe that there is a good or bad time to buy property if it is well located and fits the criteria for good investments. The most important thing is that you make your money when you buy so if you are buying in a slow/depressed market it is important to do a great deal. :)
We have been averaging around two IPs p/a for some time now and every one has been a great deal(My opinion). What one may find is that during the slower markets the "don't wanters" start to appear and good deals can be achieved on these. Buying in stronger markets is more difficult but still achieveable by using good research stratergies and keeping up with market trends. The above works for me because I buy property that is either high end(above median) and most importantly in predominantly home owner territory.
Kind regards
Simon
 
simonjulie said:
The above works for me because I buy property that is either high end(above median) and most importantly in predominantly home owner territory.
Click to expand...

Simon,

That sounds like a very Navra-esque strategy, and the approach I'm warming to. Nonetheless, I think the current market is "predominately" a poor one for buying value property due to the level that prices have run to. I feel if you give it a year or two or maybe more, then the prices will represent greater value "across the board".

Of course, if your servicability numbers still stack up for a specific property, and you're on a long term plan, then buying within rental reality (or some other value determinant) should gaurantee success of your strategy. This discussion always seems to come back to a question of strategy. Mine is buy and hold with neutral servicability based on a mixed asset structure, with a medium to long term horizon for CG.

My 2c,
Michael.
 
Yah - the more people saying it's a poor time to buy property the happier I am going looking :)

While generally I'd agree the market is largely flat (except for parts of WA, QLD and some other places here and there), I'd say it's still worth LOOKING for property.

There are always a few good deals in the market, and right now there is much less competition over them.

Also, you'll be closer to your market when the tide turns and be able to move in and start buying while the media and many people are still calling property a poor investment.

How long does it take most of the country to catch on that there's a boom happening? Generally 18+ months after the boom begins (though admittedly for the first 6-12 months it can be difficult to see if it's a boom or a bulltrap).

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Keep on truckin.....

We've continued buying.... we've bought 5 in the last month !!! :eek:

What we are seeing now, is that it is a buyer's market..... One house we bought, we made an offer that was knocked back, then, walked away.... the vendor got in touch 2 weeks later, and accepted our original deal.... MAD !!!

If you're pounding the pavement there are quite a few bargains around..... its just a matter of finding them.....

We look for properties that have 1 - 2 twists to them, so that we can value add, and seek CG..... but we HOLD them.....

Cheers
:)
 
I'm not buying property- but I have had another big purchase recently which needs a lot of care and attention.

Also, because the business has just started, it will be a while before the mainstream lenders will look at my business income.

It may be a little while before I get back into the market at this rate.
 
Hi guys,
agree with you that it is fast becomming a buyers market I am currently building my 3rd Ip, and feel my hands are tied till I complete the home and have it rented cause I am becomming excited seeing the change in the market. I contantly search around for bargins, just last week I checked out 2 houses under 160k in a particular area that I am trying to buy in to, over 50 houses "not units" under 200K up for sale in that area at this time, 12 months ago you would not get 5 under 200K so I can see that the tide has changed.

A house across the road from me has been up for sale now for the last 12 months, actually spoke to an agent about it today, and I am willing to wait and will make an offer in a few months. I feel that when they say that a market is flat, it is flat in the selling point of view, and this is when the bargins start to appear and opens up a whole new world to the astute buyer.

Regards
John
 
Interesting replies there.

How do you define a bargain though? Because it is, say 10% below last year, and you negotiate another 5% below that, does it makes it a great deal?

But then after the great boom in property prices we had recently, it might still be 60% above what it was worth 4 years ago, in an environment where interest rates are rising, isn't there a good chance that today's great price will look expensive in one year?

Looking back with the perspective of 5 years, now doesn't seem the ideal time to buy property, at least not in the Sydney areas I am watching.

Perth may be another story, as it seems to still benefit from the commodities boom.

Cheers,
 
Not to worry geoffw

When you can get another loan in a couple of years of proven business turnover/profit
You will be able to get a loan "a foot long" hehe

cheers yadreamin
 
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