Now that is a relief, but.....but.....how many of Jim Rogers alike is in this world.....
Super.
Super.
Word of caution for the newbies.
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The naked shorters have been blamed for market manipulation for some time, and in an unprecedented move, the US SEC today placed a ban on naked short selling. This is extreme stuff, and highlights how critically vulnerable the US (and world) banking system is.
Further on the downside, US cpi just went up 1.1% in the month of June. The price of oil was mainly to blame. This erodes the rot coming out of the RBA that Aussie inflation is due to Aussies spending excessively. As the ABS stats have shown for some time, Aussie cpi is being driven by fuel, finance, food, and pharmaceuticals. The US fed are stuck now between raising rates to slow consumption and cpi and risking killling the economy stone cold, or keeping rates low and watching cpi keep going up. I still don't get when these guys will wake up that rates can't do anything to influence oil price inflation.
Newbies, the above are two good reasons to read up on global macroeconomics.
Just saw your post Kunster. Here's some stuff I do.
1. Bookmarks
They don't all put stuff out regularly, but some have web presences you can check. Below are some of my bookmarks from my home page. Some of them are broken as I haven't got around to updating.
2. Google with date limiter
If I think there is a change in market conditions, or a piece of news I want more opinion on, I'll google their name, limiting date to a week or 2. That picks up recent interviews or op-eds in the media scanned daily by google.
3. Blogs
I check a few blogs run by guys who have gained credibility. Some of them are below. Eventually, you get an idea of who to listen to because select bloggers are all listening to the same people. Generally the bloggers point out key interviews or articles.
Blogs have gotten amazingly efficient at identifying who is worth listening to. It has been amazing watching this trend over the last 2 years. The regular news are really getting caught out for sloppy journalism and pushing a line their advertisers might favor.
So more and more people are turning to the blogs and words of smarter people with connections. You can't rely on the media as much.
4. Utube
I often search on utube for interviews. Here's an interview with Jim Rogers, another guy I respect. And for Dazzophiles, he is seriously wealthy. Personally, I think he is pretty much on the money with his seriously dim view on the USA. Jim has moved permanently over to Singapore, to bring up his kids in the Asia region and invest heavily there. He really thinks the US is going to suffer. Jim also thinks Ron Paul was the most informed guy running for President this year, but the media have pretty much ignored him cos what he said was so radical. I am a fan of Ron Paul and he has lots of interviews on utube too. Ron was making a lot of noise about the Iraq war and US involvement overseas sending the country broke. He makes a lot of sense.
5. ABC news
Most nights I try and catch the ABC tv news around 7.15pm. That's when Alan Kohler gives his minute or two about finance. He summarizes things very well, and I think he is one of the most accurate commentators around. Generally he'll throw up a piece of research towards the end of his report. Watch these carefully as they give a lot of insight. He is a protege of Robert Gottliebsen, who is highly respected by Australian business. These two put out the Eureka Report which is also reliable reading about Aus business.
6. Various Australian Reports
Australian Banks; Credit Reporters D&B Fitch S&P; ACCI, AIG, Property Valuers HTW
I occasionally look at these but not as much as I used to. The bank reports (ANZ, NAB) are still ok but none of them picked how bad sub prime would effect Australia, nor the xjo correction this year.
7. Bloomberg, Barron's, The Economist
these have good interviews though they all have their bias. The economist has gone a bit left over recent years.
8. Things I don't read anymore.
The Courier Mail in Brisbane haven't looked at it for about a year. They've really dumbed it down to get more of Gen XY readers.
The ABC news website. The bias is ridiculous and you'll never get an informed opinion about anything happening in global economics.
9. Lateline and Lateline business on ABC tv
these programs sometimes have interviews with people worth listening to. though Kerry OBrien (think he has gone to 730report) and Tony Jones are smug ignorant little lefties with no idea about global economics......Ali Moore and Andrew Robertson are more balanced and insightful.
My view is as Australia has become more dependent on foreign money to fuel credit supply, we are more dependent on the US economy.
Understanding the US is critical in understanding what might happen in Australia in these times. I don't agree we are as decoupled and insulated as some think.
If you want to narrow the list down, I'd recommend you download Saturday's Financial Sense mp3's, esp 2nd hour expert and 3rd hour. they come out Sat night our time I think. Jim Puplava is easy to listen to and he interviews a good range of people. His offsiders can be corny, but I think all up they do a reasonable job of discussing fundamentals and long term consequences. They come across as doom and gloomers to many, but their comments fit with others.
Probably a good idea to read a high school economics text book too. Get familiar with GDP, monetary and fiscal issues, terms of trade, games played with cpi and why, national acounts etc....
Pimco-BillGross
Robert Shiller
BCA Research
WoodyBrock-SED
Stratfor
Robert Reich
Calculated Risk
Martin Feldstein
John Taylor
Mordecai Kurz
Yale Sch. Economics
Financial Sense
Kirk Report
Bill Cara
Barry RItholtz
John Hussman
Daily Reckoning
Gary Schilling
Dismal Scientist
1. Bookmarks
They don't all put stuff out regularly, but some have web presences you can check. Below are some of my bookmarks from my home page. Some of them are broken as I haven't got around to updating.
2. Google with date limiter
If I think there is a change in market conditions, or a piece of news I want more opinion on, I'll google their name, limiting date to a week or 2. That picks up recent interviews or op-eds in the media scanned daily by google.
3. Blogs
I check a few blogs run by guys who have gained credibility. Some of them are below. Eventually, you get an idea of who to listen to because select bloggers are all listening to the same people. Generally the bloggers point out key interviews or articles.
Blogs have gotten amazingly efficient at identifying who is worth listening to. It has been amazing watching this trend over the last 2 years. The regular news are really getting caught out for sloppy journalism and pushing a line their advertisers might favor.
So more and more people are turning to the blogs and words of smarter people with connections. You can't rely on the media as much.
4. Utube
I often search on utube for interviews. Here's an interview with Jim Rogers, another guy I respect. And for Dazzophiles, he is seriously wealthy. Personally, I think he is pretty much on the money with his seriously dim view on the USA. Jim has moved permanently over to Singapore, to bring up his kids in the Asia region and invest heavily there. He really thinks the US is going to suffer. Jim also thinks Ron Paul was the most informed guy running for President this year, but the media have pretty much ignored him cos what he said was so radical. I am a fan of Ron Paul and he has lots of interviews on utube too. Ron was making a lot of noise about the Iraq war and US involvement overseas sending the country broke. He makes a lot of sense.
5. ABC news
Most nights I try and catch the ABC tv news around 7.15pm. That's when Alan Kohler gives his minute or two about finance. He summarizes things very well, and I think he is one of the most accurate commentators around. Generally he'll throw up a piece of research towards the end of his report. Watch these carefully as they give a lot of insight. He is a protege of Robert Gottliebsen, who is highly respected by Australian business. These two put out the Eureka Report which is also reliable reading about Aus business.
6. Various Australian Reports
Australian Banks; Credit Reporters D&B Fitch S&P; ACCI, AIG, Property Valuers HTW
I occasionally look at these but not as much as I used to. The bank reports (ANZ, NAB) are still ok but none of them picked how bad sub prime would effect Australia, nor the xjo correction this year.
7. Bloomberg, Barron's, The Economist
these have good interviews though they all have their bias. The economist has gone a bit left over recent years.
8. Things I don't read anymore.
The Courier Mail in Brisbane haven't looked at it for about a year. They've really dumbed it down to get more of Gen XY readers.
The ABC news website. The bias is ridiculous and you'll never get an informed opinion about anything happening in global economics.
9. Lateline and Lateline business on ABC tv
these programs sometimes have interviews with people worth listening to. though Kerry OBrien (think he has gone to 730report) and Tony Jones are smug ignorant little lefties with no idea about global economics......Ali Moore and Andrew Robertson are more balanced and insightful.
My view is as Australia has become more dependent on foreign money to fuel credit supply, we are more dependent on the US economy.
Understanding the US is critical in understanding what might happen in Australia in these times. I don't agree we are as decoupled and insulated as some think.
If you want to narrow the list down, I'd recommend you download Saturday's Financial Sense mp3's, esp 2nd hour expert and 3rd hour. they come out Sat night our time I think. Jim Puplava is easy to listen to and he interviews a good range of people. His offsiders can be corny, but I think all up they do a reasonable job of discussing fundamentals and long term consequences. They come across as doom and gloomers to many, but their comments fit with others.
Probably a good idea to read a high school economics text book too. Get familiar with GDP, monetary and fiscal issues, terms of trade, games played with cpi and why, national acounts etc....
Pimco-BillGross
Robert Shiller
BCA Research
WoodyBrock-SED
Stratfor
Robert Reich
Calculated Risk
Martin Feldstein
John Taylor
Mordecai Kurz
Yale Sch. Economics
Financial Sense
Kirk Report
Bill Cara
Barry RItholtz
John Hussman
Daily Reckoning
Gary Schilling
Dismal Scientist
Well, true values comes in reliable predictability. And it looks like you guys saw the crash coming (judging by the post dates and info). I'm sticking around on ss for a while me thinks...
Well to me this looks like a common noob dummy spit.
As if someone who achieved anything owes a noob something.
They are not here to help.
And experience has clearly shown that when things get tough, most make a fast exit, making silly excuses like "I'm really too busy".
I see nothing wrong with people selling products or services, but to think that they are doing just to help is real "the word of caution for noobs".
As if someone who achieved anything owes a noob something.
Gee, just like all those who sell books, hold seminars, sell advice and post here.
They are not here to help.
And experience has clearly shown that when things get tough, most make a fast exit, making silly excuses like "I'm really too busy".
I see nothing wrong with people selling products or services, but to think that they are doing just to help is real "the word of caution for noobs".
Mmm. Not sure where my dummy spit is and not real sure what your point is.
I remember when I first started watching this forum a joined a year later. There was plenty of advice and information for the new guys. It was some time before I joined all the pieces and started thinking like an investor. My first ip purchase was before I found this forum. The structure and property itself showed my general inexpierience. Ip 2 was purchased after some time after finding this forum and it is a quality purchase.
Now my point is some time back many anti-property people would frequent this forum and absolutely bash the property investing choice most here have made. They preached the absolute collapse of housing etc.
Now many newbirs would have logged in at this time and they may have been scared away before they had a chance to make there own choice.
This is the time I made this thread. It was an effort to let the new guys know they should hang around and listen to all that is on offer here. This is what I have done and continue to do.
So thankyou all that have shared there information, expierience and thoughts and I still say to the newbies. Don't ask a butcher how to lay bricks. In other words take advise about investing from people that are investers. And learn as much as you can.
Cheers.
I am in the #2 category, and I am here to help.
Nothing to sell, nothing to gain.
In fact, the more I give, the more I gain.
Why? Because the more I'm here and conversing etc, the more I learn.
Yes, there are some here who like to help, but have an ulterior motive. They are easy to spot - they have a business to run which involves real estate. But even in this group there are a few who are genuinely here simply to help and learn and get rich themselves through more knowledge.
I don't owe noobs anything. But that doesn't matter; it's all about spreading the knowledge and giving some thing back.
I love your posts Sunfish.
And I love Bayview's posts as well. Both have vastly different perspectives, and offer useful POV.
We all need to know that this is not a "boosters club" and that posters all have vastly different perspectives.
I sold 2 properties early 2009, and have retained some other stuff.
Although I have logged in occasionally, and cherish a strong interest in Real Estate investment, I have consciously decided to sit on the sidelines for a while.
So I am one of those who have kind of "left" the forum, for the moment.
It is easy to be a strong contributor when you are in the thick of investing, but a bit harder when your RE is on the shelf for the moment.
Maybe some of the other former contributors are in a similar position.
And I love Bayview's posts as well. Both have vastly different perspectives, and offer useful POV.
We all need to know that this is not a "boosters club" and that posters all have vastly different perspectives.
I sold 2 properties early 2009, and have retained some other stuff.
Although I have logged in occasionally, and cherish a strong interest in Real Estate investment, I have consciously decided to sit on the sidelines for a while.
So I am one of those who have kind of "left" the forum, for the moment.
It is easy to be a strong contributor when you are in the thick of investing, but a bit harder when your RE is on the shelf for the moment.
Maybe some of the other former contributors are in a similar position.
First of all nice post. Surely though, I have to say that even noobies would (should?) know how to differentiate between negative, pessimistic counter-productive posts and those that are useful and helpful. If not, perhaps property investing is not for them.
Property investing is a very emotional and sometimes difficult journey. We share our experiences on here so that others may feel more comfortable in being able to jump in, have a go, and ride the waves.
Finally, in real life, it's the same too....some people are pessimistic doom and gloomers who you wouldn't want to run into on a sunny day for fear it will turn into a storm. Other people are just plain awesome (thanks Barney). I like to hang with the awesome.
Property investing is a very emotional and sometimes difficult journey. We share our experiences on here so that others may feel more comfortable in being able to jump in, have a go, and ride the waves.
Finally, in real life, it's the same too....some people are pessimistic doom and gloomers who you wouldn't want to run into on a sunny day for fear it will turn into a storm. Other people are just plain awesome (thanks Barney). I like to hang with the awesome.
That's always my point.
What you get here is an opinion, or an experience NOT advice.
Yet day after day of noob posts asking for "advice"
that's what you get from lawyers, not a forum.A few years ago it's worst, so I stopped posting.
So many posting as "experts" here to help...but for a small fee that is.
Where are they now GIDDO?
Well RE and equities did'nt keep going up forever, neither did the economy, bull market trading strategiess got hammered, people lost their houses, got margin calls, banks are tightning credit and there's a whole lot less people looking at an RE forum.
Guess what? No many potential customers. This cow has been milked till the next boom.
Imo this forum is now at it's highest for quality as it's ever been.
devo76;637772 Now my point is some time back many anti-property people would frequent this forum and absolutely bash the property investing choice most here have made. They preached the absolute collapse of housing etc.[/QUOTE said:
That's always my point.
What you get here is an opinion, or an experience NOT advice.
Yet day after day of noob posts asking for "advice"
A few years ago it's worst, so I stopped posting.
So many posting as "experts" here to help...but for a small fee that is.
Where are they now GIDDO?
Well RE and equities did'nt keep going up forever, neither did the economy, bull market trading strategiess got hammered, people lost their houses, got margin calls, banks are tightning credit and there's a whole lot less people looking at an RE forum.
Guess what? No many potential customers. This cow has been milked till the next boom.
Imo this forum is now at it's highest for quality as it's ever been.
I've never read anything akin to "absolute collapse". The biggest bear I recall was "40% fall in prices".
And in some instances he was right.
Though instead of attacking the reasoning & logic, they attacked the person.
Most noobs want to see a CG graph that points up at a 45 degree angle for the next 1000 yrs.
So what happen to forsight in seeing market downturns?
Absolute collapse were my words that i used to describe the quality of the threads around here some time back. But if you dont consider a nation wide 40% collapse to be big then im wasting my time.We seem to be chasing different points here. My single point is that many noobs come here( Even you were one of them at some point) And for a period of time they were smashed by gloomers. This point is not really that valid any more because the collapse didnt happen. The majority of the gloomers packed there bags and trundled of home to there own website ( that is now closed). this forum has returned to normality which now allows noobs to get a better insight into investing.Your right you dont owe them anything.So use your right to not answer there questions.
Well, *that* forum has been down for some time now, and all the bickering has moved to another forum rather than here so there's less rabid bears dropping by. Enjoy it
"Absolute collapse" I'd take to mean >60%
And >30% happened in a few markets with the FHBG and stimulus.
But you can always bury your head in the sand and not waste your time.
I was an absolute noob at one time, now I'm a more experienced noob.
But this is where we disagree.
They got smashed by spruikers & "experts" telling them "they can"t lose" and RE and equities always goes up.
They got smashed by the GFC causing people to lose their jobs.
They got smashed by 11 consecutive interest rate rises.
They got smashed by believing that stock market "expert" who's book is in every book store that bloated "leverage as much as you can" just before the market crashed.
They got smashed because they borrowed more than they could repay because they lied on their no doc loans apps.
They got smashed because banks would only finance below their previous loan or not at all.
Sure non of the above happened.
Nor do we have the highest defaults and repos in 15yrs.
As did the vendors of eternal blue skies after their followers lost their A$$.
Although I still have respect for some of them like Peter Spann. At least he's got some guts and seems to put his money where his mouth is.
In >20yr of investing I've never seen any such thing as normality. I does'nt exist.
But I did (then and now) do answer their questions, but I could'nt possibly know because I don't pay for glossy RE magazine ads that declare myself as an "expert". And the other truth is that noobs want to hear the eternal blue sky story anyway, they want to be rich in 3 yrs.
So they become fodder, when the market turns, for capitalist vultures like myself (and the banks) waiting to pickup carcasses...
Can't say they were'nt warned.
"Absolute collapse" I'd take to mean >60%
And >30% happened in a few markets with the FHBG and stimulus.
But you can always bury your head in the sand and not waste your time.
I was an absolute noob at one time, now I'm a more experienced noob.
But this is where we disagree.
They got smashed by spruikers & "experts" telling them "they can"t lose" and RE and equities always goes up.
They got smashed by the GFC causing people to lose their jobs.
They got smashed by 11 consecutive interest rate rises.
They got smashed by believing that stock market "expert" who's book is in every book store that bloated "leverage as much as you can" just before the market crashed.
They got smashed because they borrowed more than they could repay because they lied on their no doc loans apps.
They got smashed because banks would only finance below their previous loan or not at all.
Sure non of the above happened.
Nor do we have the highest defaults and repos in 15yrs.
As did the vendors of eternal blue skies after their followers lost their A$$.
Although I still have respect for some of them like Peter Spann. At least he's got some guts and seems to put his money where his mouth is.
In >20yr of investing I've never seen any such thing as normality. I does'nt exist.
But I did (then and now) do answer their questions, but I could'nt possibly know because I don't pay for glossy RE magazine ads that declare myself as an "expert". And the other truth is that noobs want to hear the eternal blue sky story anyway, they want to be rich in 3 yrs.
So they become fodder, when the market turns, for capitalist vultures like myself (and the banks) waiting to pickup carcasses...
Can't say they were'nt warned.
Ok. Im going to have one more go at this before resorting to drawing pictures for you.I have been working too hard lately and im tired and dont feel like beating my head against the wall with this any longer.
Did you actually read my first post of this thread ???
I am not talking about spruikers etc or the poor people duped by people like this. Sure it happened im sure but it was not what my thread was about.
It also was not about 30%/50%/40% what ever i dont care about splitting hairs with this although it worth mentioning that most of the dire predictions did not happen.Normality??? you pick that to gripe about in my post.Are you sniffing petrol?
You raise valid points. None of which i was commenting on yet you target my posts.
My point was( If you dont want to read the start of this thread) Many people made a decision to consider traveling down the property investing road. these people come here fresh,excited but a bit ignorent to the fact that there was a lot of negatively biased opinion on here AT THAT TIME. Im not talking about opposing opinion or people warning of the negatives. Im talking about people with a genuine hatred for investors and what they stand for right or wrong. My post was a warning to them to not be swayed by initial comments. I wanted them to stay long enough to get a balanced argument.
I did not come here expecting a hand out. I did not think anyone on here owed me anything. How you got that out of my post defies logic. By the time i started this thread i had enough time behind me to feel that i could take from these forums what i needed.You remind me of that one bloke at the smoko table that argues for the sake of arguing. So now i am going to become one of the other guys at the table. Recognise you for what you are. roll my eyes
and avoid the topic with you in the future. All the best
Hi, First post. A bit daunting posting on here as a lot of grilling seems to be the norm for any varying opinions. I've Read trough numerous threads and felt this one appropriate to start my posting! I agree there are certain groups posters fall under and suggest the 3rd group of trolls should include dodgy Spruiker trolls as being on par with investor haters/ doomsday trolls!
Great post devo I was noticing the trend the more I read!
Oh btw no arugments im proud to be in the noob group
Great post devo I was noticing the trend the more I read!
Oh btw no arugments im proud to be in the noob group
There is a good core group of people on here that will help you greatly. But unfortunately there is also a group of people that want to manipulate things. This goes both ways. People that will talk property down for their own reasons.
And the those that will talk it up also for their own reasons.
You have most likely chosen property as a possible way of increasing your wealth so use this forum to help you. Take the good and bad news given here be careful of the posters that have other reasons to give advice.
Just take time to read the posts/threads. The true information starts to stand out after a while.
Cheers.
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