Zero bps!!
- Thread starter ned261
- Start date
i wouldn't say the next move is up - it may be another 25bp cut in April.
but it's comforting to know (personally - not publicly) that i can gauge sentiment better than this time last year. i knew they wouldn't cut - whether it be denial or it really ISNT like the rest of the world here is yet to be seen.
so, what did i win....?
but it's comforting to know (personally - not publicly) that i can gauge sentiment better than this time last year. i knew they wouldn't cut - whether it be denial or it really ISNT like the rest of the world here is yet to be seen.
so, what did i win....?
The next move is definitely up for mortgage rates.
well thats confidence. Can you tell me the lotto numbers for next week please.
Those guys have been confidently predicting mortgage rates will rise since Q2 last year. They have been confidently wrong month after month since then. I remember them telling me early last year that there was no way the RBA would cut rates (inflation, you see) and even if they did, the banks would just raise anyway. There was absolutely no chance in hell that banks would pass on rate cuts (overseas funding costs too high, you see). They have been very confidently predicting this for a long time...
Wow,
Well I'm glad you're here to clear that up for me. Here I was listening to all the professionals in the industry who are still stating openly that rates will settle in the 2's...
http://business.smh.com.au/business/australia-doing-comparatively-well-20090303-8n23.html
Good thing I've got a genuine expert here to set that straight! And with such robust supporting detailed analysis too!!
Cheers,
Michael
No fun in that, vincenzo!! You see, my crystal ball broke some years ago, so now I have to rely on guessing .....
Cheers
LynnH
No fun in that, vincenzo!! You see, my crystal ball broke some years ago, so now I have to rely on guessing .....
Cheers
LynnH
Hey, isn't that the same strategy as the RBA?
For my mind they RBA have got it wrong and should have cut aggressively again. They were wrong in the first half of last year when they raised rates when they should have in fact cut rates and now they have paused again.
I agree with Michael Pascoe and this article that he wrote:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/stevens-digs-in-for-long-haul-20090303-8n7c.html
"It's a big call for a finance hack to say the might and wisdom of the Reserve Bank has it wrong, but the RBA Governor's statement from this afternoon is clearly flawed.
After saying the board decided to leaves the cash rate unchanged, Stevens says: "Recent data confirm that the world economy has remained very weak following the sharp decline in demand that occurred last year. "
That's wrong. The world economy didn't remain very weak, it very substantially weakened. The most recent data show production and trade falling off cliffs around the world."
I quite like this bit:
"The failure to cut rates today isn't a statement of relative faith in Australia's economic outlook, as the official wording paints it - it's a statement of fear about the length and depth of the challenge ahead."
Well I think the RBA will have to cut more next month to make up for their hesitation now.
I agree with Michael Pascoe and this article that he wrote:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/stevens-digs-in-for-long-haul-20090303-8n7c.html
"It's a big call for a finance hack to say the might and wisdom of the Reserve Bank has it wrong, but the RBA Governor's statement from this afternoon is clearly flawed.
After saying the board decided to leaves the cash rate unchanged, Stevens says: "Recent data confirm that the world economy has remained very weak following the sharp decline in demand that occurred last year. "
That's wrong. The world economy didn't remain very weak, it very substantially weakened. The most recent data show production and trade falling off cliffs around the world."
I quite like this bit:
"The failure to cut rates today isn't a statement of relative faith in Australia's economic outlook, as the official wording paints it - it's a statement of fear about the length and depth of the challenge ahead."
Well I think the RBA will have to cut more next month to make up for their hesitation now.
Rubbish! if you think thats the case......come back to me in the 2nd qtr of the next financial year 09-10 or later with that statement....plenty of downside yet to come economically and rate cuts are a sure thing in april 110% certainty, banks will grab perhaps a .25% slice at least of anything.....we are still on the descent in my opinion.....wait for more figures to be released over the next qtr to guage.
I agree with the decision for reasons explained in depth in another post. I don't think we're at the bottom yet. I think the tough times will be with us quite a while longer and I believe the government has already spent most of the surplus from the last 10 years (nice to know the government can't budget any better than the rest of us)!
Whilst the RBA won't want to drop rates too much lower for fear of crucifying the Aussie dollar, a few more small cuts are probably on the cards in the coming year. I doubt the banks will pass much on to consumers though.
Whilst the RBA won't want to drop rates too much lower for fear of crucifying the Aussie dollar, a few more small cuts are probably on the cards in the coming year. I doubt the banks will pass much on to consumers though.
after today gdp slump of 0.5% the chances of rate cut next months are higher:
from bloomberg
I think with a rate cut yesterday today the AU$ would be in a bottomless fall (that would make me AUS homes very cheap...)
from bloomberg
AUS treasury bonds were unchanged, that would mean no changes in long term bank funding (and that would likely mean no changes in long term mortgages rates).
I think with a rate cut yesterday today the AU$ would be in a bottomless fall (that would make me AUS homes very cheap...
)72% chance? where do they get that figure from? an average of number of economists' opinion? is that even worth considering?
lets look to futures for real sentiment.
lets look to futures for real sentiment.
bloomberg is very reliable as I said several times.
they are talking about traders (the actual people that deal with banks bill or libor), I guess the swiss swap trading index is not much different then the future you are imagining
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