The All Ords and 5,000 (again)
- Thread starter RichardC
- Start date
I'm keeping just a small investment portfolio at the moment, and also only trading a relatively small amount, partly with warrants, until the market direction is clearer.
While yesterday's jump was good, and the XAO managing to stay above 5000 at close today was also a good sign, it could just be leading into another short rally like the one in July - perhaps lasting until October.
I see the market as very mixed at the moment. Some stocks are picking up well, a few have rocketed up (like Coles-Myer), but many have also recently dived down out of established trends. I see plenty of potential opportunities, but with greater risk of sudden dives (a la Oil Search).
Cheers,
GP
While yesterday's jump was good, and the XAO managing to stay above 5000 at close today was also a good sign, it could just be leading into another short rally like the one in July - perhaps lasting until October.
I see the market as very mixed at the moment. Some stocks are picking up well, a few have rocketed up (like Coles-Myer), but many have also recently dived down out of established trends. I see plenty of potential opportunities, but with greater risk of sudden dives (a la Oil Search).
Cheers,
GP
MJK said:
Hahaha... Great choices!!
There is a VERY interesting article on their website which compares the performance differences between APN #1 and #2 and explains the various factors which cause the divergence in performance. Highly recommended reading...!
I leverage only with a margin loan... I do have a large offset amount in the IP loan which I would use in case of a margin call (this is the only reason I gear this highy - if I didnt have the offset money I would be much lower geared). Plus my total holdings are pretty non-correlated (Aus, Int, and LPTs) - so it is a "lower risk" portfolio.
By lower on westfield/multiplex I mean that these funds (especially APN #2) focus on higher (relative to index weightings) holdings of funds which generate their income from rental sources - rather than property development and corporate activity (ie multiplex and the westfield and others). If you remember westfield used to be 3 companies (i think) - one for corporate earnings/development - and the two trusts (aussie and US). They merged. The weightings of these westfield/others in these funds would be lower than their weighting in XPJ. The more ''active" earnings are more prone to being vulnerable from the changes in economic cycle, etc...
Well, the stock market continues to climb that wall of worry.
When the rot set in nearly 4 months ago it was all about inflation, and rightly so. As that faided, the Middle East erupted. Israel and Lebanon. Then we have a weeks worth of rally when that finished, and now the big worry is that apparently the US property market is crashing.
Personally, property prices stabilizing, or even dropping a bit would have to be a good thing. If everyone can pay less for a property to live in, then they should have more to spend on other stuff. In reality though, it doesn't work like that. As peoples house prices drop they feel less rich, so cut back on spending. We all know that.
Is this the start of a US recession?
The BHP was result was everything I expected, and more. Yet the market was not impressed. Wow, imagine if it was below expectations? BHP is currently trading at less than 10 times 07 earnings going on some forecasts. I suspect that a lot of BHP's woes are due to the pathetic dividend. I don't want the dividend. BHP can use that money way better than I can. There is billions to be spent at Olympic dam alone. Rumour is that Olympic dam's reserves are about to be upgraded. [Could be just a rumour though. Imagine if the uranium gets upped to 50% of world supplies?]
Today Zinefex released earnings of 4 times bigger than last years. This is an $11 stock, earning $2.20 per share, and about to pay 70c fully franked dividend. Wow. Does it get any better than that? Obviously not! The market must believe that this is the very top of resource earnings for BHP and ZFX to be trading at their current levels. The market may be right too.
I hold both these stocks. This is not a recommendation, and I'm probably just ramping these shares, hoping some sucker will buy so I can sell to them.
The only thing that is certain is, Telstra is still a dog.
See ya's.
When the rot set in nearly 4 months ago it was all about inflation, and rightly so. As that faided, the Middle East erupted. Israel and Lebanon. Then we have a weeks worth of rally when that finished, and now the big worry is that apparently the US property market is crashing.
Personally, property prices stabilizing, or even dropping a bit would have to be a good thing. If everyone can pay less for a property to live in, then they should have more to spend on other stuff. In reality though, it doesn't work like that. As peoples house prices drop they feel less rich, so cut back on spending. We all know that.
Is this the start of a US recession?
The BHP was result was everything I expected, and more. Yet the market was not impressed. Wow, imagine if it was below expectations? BHP is currently trading at less than 10 times 07 earnings going on some forecasts. I suspect that a lot of BHP's woes are due to the pathetic dividend. I don't want the dividend. BHP can use that money way better than I can. There is billions to be spent at Olympic dam alone. Rumour is that Olympic dam's reserves are about to be upgraded. [Could be just a rumour though. Imagine if the uranium gets upped to 50% of world supplies?]
Today Zinefex released earnings of 4 times bigger than last years. This is an $11 stock, earning $2.20 per share, and about to pay 70c fully franked dividend. Wow. Does it get any better than that? Obviously not! The market must believe that this is the very top of resource earnings for BHP and ZFX to be trading at their current levels. The market may be right too.
I hold both these stocks. This is not a recommendation, and I'm probably just ramping these shares, hoping some sucker will buy so I can sell to them.
The only thing that is certain is, Telstra is still a dog.
See ya's.
rossv said:what exactly does that result equate to as a ROI?
rossv
ps: i'm sure i get a better ROI than bhp ...
Do you mean ROI as return on investment? Return on investment has been very good considering BHP was worth $8 just three and a half years ago. [now $27]
Or maybe you mean ROA [return on assets] or ROE [return on equity]. I guarentee you wouldn't be doing better than BHP on these two. If you are, let me invest with you please. [perhaps you are growing wooppee weed, nice returns there. So I've been told of course].
See ya's,
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My sources give BHP's
ROE as 34%.
ROA as 22.2%.
The ROA is less than ROE due to debt levels. Cheers.
ROE as 34%.
ROA as 22.2%.
The ROA is less than ROE due to debt levels. Cheers.
topcropper said:
I wonder if the TAB is taking bets on whether the US Recession is coming? Afterall, you can be on anything these days. imo...a booming/growing property market/industry is one of the biggest generator of jobs in any economy. If the US property market stagnates or starts decreasing then this will cause a lot of insecurity. Caterpillar came out with a disappointing result(???not sure how long ago now) and they're considered a bell weather stock. Then there was that hoopla last year about the yield curve about to turn inverse with the raise in US rates and this would forecast the recession...hasn't happened yet. China is in a surplus position regarding exports, so if the US starts cutting back their demand for imports, I'd probably be a little cautious with the resources and any calculations factoring in future price increases/earnings expectations for the resources.
I'd hate to jinx the world economy but I suspect the world is due for a slow down or at least some semi-recession...too many deficits all round. Maybe China/India and Japan will experience a similar type of economic growth that Oz experienced. All speculation of course.
rossv said:was thinking today ( happens on the odd occasion) what exactly does that result equate to as a ROI?
I suspect its actually still a lousy result.
Anyone know what the answer is?
rossv
ps: i'm sure i get a better ROI than bhp ...
ROI [return on investment].
Actually, this is probably what your after. According to yesterdays AFR, BHP spent 22 billion dollars [up 2 bil] to make 13.7 billion dollars profit.
According to the article, there was pressure on costs for everything from labour and contractors to raw materials and energy.
Cheers.
littlevixen said:
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There's up to 2yrs wait for all manner of mining equitment and some is delivered "barefoot" ie sans tyres
There are only a few tyre manufacturers (just 2?) worldwide and they have been cautious of increasing capacity. Miners have resorted to digging up the old tyre dumps to find anything which is repairable.
They are victims of their own good fortune.
There are only a few tyre manufacturers (just 2?) worldwide and they have been cautious of increasing capacity. Miners have resorted to digging up the old tyre dumps to find anything which is repairable.
They are victims of their own good fortune.
The Ox just released earnings.
Appear good to me, but lets see in 10 minutes. I hold.
See ya's.
Appear good to me, but lets see in 10 minutes. I hold.
See ya's.
Caltex has just announced a 12% better NPAT than corresponding period last year. Was given a caning y'day and down another 1% today.
Quote:
The profit equated to approx 1.8c/l on average for all petroleum products sold.
Remember that they make a lot of money in their Star Shops, so I can't see any profiteering here. Just the press and pollies looking for a scapegoat.
Quote:
The profit equated to approx 1.8c/l on average for all petroleum products sold.
Remember that they make a lot of money in their Star Shops, so I can't see any profiteering here. Just the press and pollies looking for a scapegoat.
The Y-man said:From the figures you gave, that was pretty easy to match? My own share trading returned over 50% on invested equity (pre tax) and a return on assets of about 28%?
Cheers,
The Y-man
Yep, fair enough.
I was more talking about a business. However, if we call share trading a business, and if someone was good at it like you obviously are, then, with stuff all overheads, just a computer or two, a room to work in, and a bit of equity, share trading as a business would give a simply amazing return on equity. Flog any business.
My share returns are not as good as yours, but I'm more a buy and holder. Thinking again, if I include the gearing, then I would be getting up there. ['edit in' I should add too that this good return would be only this last 3.5 bull years. I do not expect to get that return in normal times]
Mining is a big cost, high capital business. Much like farming. If I could get returns like BHP from my farm, I would be laughing. The main returns from farming has been capital gain from the land. My land has risen at 10% a year for 40 years would you believe! That makes the low returns easier to put up with.
See ya's.
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lol Topcropper...the problem with reading so much is sometimes some of the info gets blurred. Especially when I skim through news to find out about general state of the intal economies. Speaking of mining companies though, have you any idea which listed companies manufacture wheels for mining equipment????...I read somewhere about a global shortage...wouldn't mind looking into some manufacturers of wheels to see if there's still growing demand for their products.
RichardC said:There's up to 2yrs wait for all manner of mining equitment and some is delivered "barefoot" ie sans tyres
There are only a few tyre manufacturers (just 2?) worldwide and they have been cautious of increasing capacity. Miners have resorted to digging up the old tyre dumps to find anything which is repairable.
They are victims of their own good fortune.
Sorry, I didn't read this post yet before I posted up my last one
