The All Ords and 5,000 (again)

[willair]

"Good" earnings have not been enough to prevent sell-offs for many companies lately. It's a tough audience

Afternoon Richard C,
It's always interesting ,why after they post good earnings and the next day you have a massive sell off,happens every time..
good luck willair......

 

[topcropper]

Yep it's call,

***Buy the rumour, sell the fact***

Lots are taking profits on the good results.

 

[RichardC]

.... and most of all an accountant to track everyhing! (Thank goodness I am married to one )

Cheers,

The Y-man

Me too.

My '05 - '06 FY returns were fantastic. If I could guarantee half that consistently I'd retire to my hole in the wall and take a lot of time off.

I went to a seminar recently by Daniel Kercher where he showed how to consistently make 2-3% per mth writing covered calls. I am still fiddeling around tho. Bit scared by the choppy market. His plan looks as if it would work best in relatively stable markets.

 

[RichardC]

Pssssst!!

Don't like doing this, but if you like penny dreadfulls (I do), check out Golden Cross Resources (GCR).
http://www.goldencross.com.au

Naturally none of you will just take my word for this and just buy some. You WILL do your own research as expected. It's a 10c stock with the options at a small discount because they only have a short time to run. Hard to see much down-side (30%?) but there could be multiples on the up side.

At least wish me luck. I might sell some of my silver miner that has treated me so well, to get significant exposure.

 

[topcropper]

wheels for mining equipment????...I read somewhere about a global shortage...wouldn't mind looking into some manufacturers of wheels to see if there's still growing demand for their products.

No idea littlevixen.

I don't invest directly in overseas shares, but I must say that Caterpillar would be something I would think about if I was. PE of 13 six years into the start of the Chinese century.

Hmm, on the other hand, China hasn't started making bulldozers and earth moving gear yet have they? Cancell that!

See ya's.

 

[Georges]

why the market has been flat for so many days?

 

[The Y-man]

why the market has been flat for so many days?

You call the movements on CML, MIG and BPC flat?
(I wish I was long on them - but I was on the wrong side...they are killing me. )

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[topcropper]

And today it's Fosters group. [FGL] Up 9% on takeover rumours. I don't hold.

See ya's.

 

[Georges]

i love the market today., but i shorted ANZ, and it went up. Other stocks are winning tho

 

[RichardC]

It's a tough market. Mincor, a Ni miner, announced a 45% increase in net profit and a 67% increase in dividends to 5c (4% return) final dividend.

That was the '05-'06 year. Since then Ni price has continued higher and the LME defaulted on delivery, ie the largest metal exchange in the world could not honour contracts to supply to end-users.

It fell nearly 10% after the announcement. Just what were they expecting?

 

[GreatPig]

A bit like BHP, although it's turning back up now.

I'm finding the market somewhat frustrating at the moment, with things dropping straight after I buy them and then bouncing back straight after I sell them.

The most annoying recently has been Qantas, where I bought call warrants when it was just over $3. Bought them for 12 cents, then sold them a week-odd later for 11 cents when it looked like the double bottom was failing to complete. Qantas closed today at $3.53, with the warrants being worth about 30 cents by my calcs. Another was Billabong, where I bought recently just before the stock took a dive, sold out, and today the price is back above my original purchase price. The list goes on...

Currently have some puts on Woolworths, which I bought yesterday. Of course it closed up 1.6% today (the stock that is), but I still think there's a good chance of a correction shortly. So expect to see it at $22 in the coming days (currently $20.80)!

Cheers,
GP

 

[The Y-man]

AI'm finding the market somewhat frustrating at the moment, with things dropping straight after I buy them.....

Could you kindly buy some anz, cml, mig, bpc, wbc, nab, and I will close out my shorts.

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[GreatPig]

Yeah, a work colleague who holds some shares keeps telling me to tell him what I'm about to buy so he can sell out first. I'm sure that must be classed as insider trading though.

OTOH, I recently bought some puts on NAB, while he held shares in NAB. One of us had to be wrong. Fortunately for me it was him, although he's a long term holder and I was only looking for a short trade, which I did in fact close out for a moderate profit.

Still, I've taken a few hits recently, and missed out on a few opportunities that I was either in just prior to or had buy signals on but didn't purchase for some reason or other. The most recent in this latter category was IRN, where I had a buy signal late last week which I didn't act on and it jumped up over 9% today (but then, if I had acted on it, it would have been down 15% today... ).

Cheers,
GP

 

[willair]

Imho
Now that the all ords is back in the 4950 levels i was just wondering how regulary do
you monitor your portfolio, even with the price of bhp and several others i still think
that to try and pick the market movements
during the next 8 weeks will be very hard ,what do you think?
good luck willair........

 

[The Y-man]

Imho
i was just wondering how regulary do you monitor your portfolio........

I monitor it every 5 minutes or so between 10am and 4pm, unless I am in a meeting

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[RichardC]

I have a live feed into my Windows box which is on all day. All these "incidentals" are on my Mac.

But surely BHP can't stay under $25 for long can it? The market could stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent though.

 

[topcropper]

I check the markets in the morning, metal, oil prices, DOW Nasdaq London etc. Read this forum and others. Check the Aussie market during lunch, then spend a few hours on the internet at night when the kids are in bed.

When things are booming like six months ago I might spend longer looking at things, especially on wet days when I'm not doing much. When I'm going bad like the last few weeks, and losing a few grand each and every day, I don't get excited, and may even avoid having a look.

On the ABC news finance report last night, Alan Kohler said that the all ords was at 15 year low PE ratio. This included some fairly high interest rates in the early 90s, so it's bargain basement at the moment. No predictions from me, I couldn't predict jack at the moment.

See ya's.

 

[MichaelW]

On the ABC news finance report last night, Alan Kohler said that the all ords was at 15 year low PE ratio. This included some fairly high interest rates in the early 90s, so it's bargain basement at the moment. No predictions from me, I couldn't predict jack at the moment.

TC,

But in the same report Alan showed how the ASX tracked commodity prices and how they had come off significantly but the ASX was still holding up somehow. He used some analogy like a cliff I think...

I love Alan's reports and try and catch them every night. (If I don't then the ABS website has a link to the previous nights report as a webcam).

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[willair]

I have a live feed into my Windows box which is on all day. All these "incidentals" are on my Mac.

But surely BHP can't stay under $25 for long can it? The market could stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent though.

Thanks Y man,RC/thommo,TC,MW, I myself watch several markets each only in the first and last hours of trades but i am looking foward to october.
good luck willair.

 

[topcropper]

Better day for me today. Two stocks I hold had good days.

Hardman Resources [HDR] up 55% on a takeover offer. Lifted the rest of my oilers as well. Been hard owning oilers for a few weeks.

Oxiana [OXR] up 17% on takeover rumours.

Both these have had a hard time since the top in April. I really should buy up some more safer big dividend, blue chips but I'm guessing just now is not the time. These big moves are not my style. Too bad anyone short.

See ya's.