09 economic predictions.

[Peter 14.7]

Hi, Contrary, very detailed, interesting and very brave call.

I think along the same lines except in the degree. Oil to fall further but $10 is a bit of a dream. I think $25-35 to start for the year & thereafter, who knows? Base metals ditto.

KY

Never say never! Six months back, many experts and many not (Likeme) were all over $2 a litre and $200 a barrell by X mas.

Thus, my oils went up 100% and then down 66% from peak. An nett loss of 30%. A $10 a barrell , production will slump with fields mothballed and exploration flat for 5 years. The only people making money would be Arab fields where you poke the ground and it comes out!

Peter

 

[Melb Wildcat]

Property Market
I think the lower end of the market (200 to 300k) might stay about the same, especially with many first home buyers using their grant to buy in these lower priced areas. I feel that many of the more expensive areas (600k plus) might go down as less people will be able to buy into that market, many of these people would hold shares and may of been forced to sell to recuperate their losses and also more people living in these "rich" areas would owe more than what their houses are worth after they declined in value.

Shares
Can see Woolworths going up (everyone needs to eat right?), Westpac had very little lost in the financial crisis and should benefit from its purchase of St George. Both in my opinion pretty safe bets. BHP is also another as its the worlds biggest miner and should be pretty good once China starts to recover..maybe early 2010.

 

[vick burns]

check this guy out

go to you tube and search alex jones interviews gerald celente 12-18-08. 8 part interview, ive done a little research on this guy, good track record very credible

 

[spark]

Sharemarket: Nice rally till April~May, ASX to rise towards 4800, when the masses are back in starts a steady decline towards 2500 maybe even 2000 by 2009 end. Sectors to rise: Excessively hammered retail, specufestors such as CNP, VPG, CIY, banks will be only slightly up. The big index downturn in H2 will be due to another slash of the banks by at least 50%, and of the unscathed "stars" such as WOW, WDC and JBH.

Currencies: AUD/USD 1.1~1.2, AUD/EUR 0.70~0.77, Australia is not in such a bad shape as the US mainly due to its size. There are more public goods such as "stable government", "low govt debt", "good regulation", "stable geopolitics" per each AUD issued than per each USD, since there are less AUDs out there. Plus the historically higher rates. EUR may be dragged down by its current East European members and by countries such as Denmark and Sweden who may trade their monetary independence for stability by joining the Euro with their own problems. Iceland may be stabilised by joining the Euro as well.

Property: Will be cashflow positive towards 2010~2011, due to price declines, low interest rates, and steady rents. Good stable yields of 7%~9% nett (before interest) should be expected at entry point. Price declines in "yuppie" residential areas to be expected due to unemployment in banking, senior management, specialised IT, and failures of small business, which may prompt forced sales of PPORs - if the banker gets no bonus, IT man gets no big salary, and the business loses money it can be difficult to pay the high mortgage. The main enemy of property prices though is not unemployment per se but the removal of the sense of job security and business security. Even those who have "stable jobs" or "stable businesses" will think twice and hesitate before upgrading PPORs and taking more commitments and obligations in such climate.

Inflation/Deflation: Don't know. Can't even guess.

Gold/Oil: Gold - depends on the inflation/deflation outcome. In a deflationary scenario current levels seem to be normal, but at the first sign of inflation Gold will jump up wildly, too many fingers are on the trigger. My guess is 1200~1500 AUD per oz by year's end (more or less current levels).
Oil - depends on Iran's will/ability to retaliate on any surprise move by Israel/US/Europe.

 

[boz]

Currencies: AUD/USD 1.1~1.2, AUD/EUR 0.70~0.77, Australia is not in such a bad shape as the US mainly due to its size. There are more public goods such as "stable government", "low govt debt", "good regulation", "stable geopolitics" per each AUD issued than per each USD, since there are less AUDs out there. Plus the historically higher rates. EUR may be dragged down by its current East European members and by countries such as Denmark and Sweden who may trade their monetary independence for stability by joining the Euro with their own problems. Iceland may be stabilised by joining the Euro as well.

GEE spark!
did the AU$ rally of the last 2 days drive you mad?
The only east european country that did join the euro are Slovakia and Slovenia and they are in good shape and don't think they're going to drag down the euro. the other eastern european member are not part of the euro and not going to be admitted any time soon unless they get the economy in good shape, in any case joining the euro is not up to the country that want to join but it is up to the Euro members to accept them. If Iceland want to join the Euro that would happen like many other country did with the US$ and not by releasing new euro notes from the iceland central bank (like it is happening with current 16 euro member countries).
The east european countries at the moment have a bit more then a free trade agreement and free labour market movement (but not sure about that anymore), similar to the relationship australia has with NZ.

 

[contrary]

I was just looking at gold reserves and the EURO has more than the US (and that's not including what the germans have). Interestingly Australia has less than thailand. China has very little, so I can't imagine it will be challenging the USD in the foreseeable future. They seem like they really have pegged to the USD (by holding most of their reserves in USD).

 

[Mary-Sue]

Whats my forecast for Dec 31, 2009..??

Property.
Modest increase on the capital value of our properties.
Ultra-massive increases on the rental value of our properties.
Haven't got a clue, don't study it and don't care what happens to other people's title deeds.


Shares.
Don't own any, never have and never will, therefore don't care.


Commodities.
Won't have any involvement to any extent, therefore don't care.


Unemployment.
Not an issue for me. I don't work and hubby is quitting. Someone can have his job.

I'm walking out the door to go camping

Well done. We might join you soon. Far more productive than staring into this haunted fish tank.

 

[Ausprop]

go to you tube and search alex jones interviews gerald celente 12-18-08. 8 part interview, ive done a little research on this guy, good track record very credible

I had a listen - gees this guy is messed up! He seems to have a grudge against a certain genre of campus students... do you think he was a nerd by any chance?

 

[Aaron Sice]

Shares
Can see Woolworths going up (everyone needs to eat right?), Westpac had very little lost in the financial crisis and should benefit from its purchase of St George. Both in my opinion pretty safe bets. BHP is also another as its the worlds biggest miner and should be pretty good once China starts to recover..maybe early 2010.

i see woolies getting SLAMMED once CostCO open their stores.

 

[Nth Brisbanite]

i see woolies getting SLAMMED once CostCO open their stores.

I was thinking of buying Woolies so who is CostCO?

 

[tigerGT]

I think Gold will be the best performer. Property will be stagnant to falling prices however not by more than 5% nationally. Shares will be all over the shop falling below 3000 again and closing around 4000 by the end of the year. Yields will improve.

Cant see property picking up again untill consumer confidence and business spending resumes.

 

[GreatPig]

Shares will be all over the shop falling below 4000 again

They have to get above 4000 again first.

and closing around 5000 by the end of the year. Yields will improve.

So share prices will go up and yields will also improve? That means dividends will go up even more than share prices?

GP

 

[silversands]

Just dug this one up.

Anyone care to change their mind or make adjustments?

Jo

 

[sash]

My crystall balls says......

Sharemarket: Shares market grow modestly....but largely flat for this year.

Currencies: AUD between 0.60 and 0.65 cents US.

Property: Residential - Property prices will decrease 5% in suburbs under 400k.....10-15% in suburbs between 400-700k and 20%+ drop anything over 800! The biggest risks is in high end suburbs....banks will want 30%+ deposits..as credit tightens.
Commercial Property - watch out here....going to be an absolute blood bath....particularly WA and QLD!!....real opportunities to buy below market!

Inflation/Deflation: Inflation within the 2-3%...RBA will be happy!

Gold/Oil: Gold - to go up as people move to it as happens during uncertainty.
Oil - $1.00 per litre in OZ as world demand decreases due to recession globally.

 

[Piston Broke]

I see many more foreclosures & mortgagee sales as many more people who cant afford to, keep buying houses.

 

[Propertunity]

I see many more foreclosures & mortgagee sales as many more people who cant afford to, keep buying houses.

Mmmm interesting. I have a Q for you. Given that the lenders are tightening their lending criteria on an almost daily basis. How do you suppose that "people who can't afford to" will keep buying houses?

Here's another Q. Given that a few people (not many) keep buying houses, presumably with good rental yields (in a low vacancy environment) and with the ability to fix IRs on loans for long periods (10-12 years) if they wish, how is this going to translate into "more foreclosures & mortgagee sales"?

 

[willair]

Just dug this one up.

Anyone care to change their mind or make adjustments?

Jo

Still the same as i thought at the start of the year,willair..

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090428/pdf/31h835rxkzv08n.pdf

 

[topcropper]

I'm probably a little more bearish now.

8% unemployment looks like it will be a good result. Sounds like double didget is on the cards.

Had no idea the FHOG boost would go. Or, I should really call it the vendors grant, because that's what it is. I still don't think it can go, as the crash would be too big come July. Little Gough will replace it with something. That's unless he's run out of money already. The budget deficites coming up will be frightening.

Assuming the FHOG boost goes, then I would now think cheaper property is in for a bit of a drop now, but something will replace it.

Can't really tell, till we see how what little Gough will do to keep the bubble going, or if there is any money left.

See ya's.

 

[Ausprop]

all these handouts have to be paid for. expect increases in taxes.

 

[Aaron Sice]

i think we will be about 10-15% higher than where are currently across the board in 12m time, but for the end of 09 i see a bit of a rally coming what will be corrected hard just before 09-10 FY.