Hi Ernie, good. I'm currently preparing all the paraphernalia I need to catch me a couple of dead cats. I plan to do this past 2012.
KY
KY
A new shares thread.
- Thread starter Sunfish
- Start date
Hi Ernie, a nice fat LOC @ close to home loan rates interest capitalised for 5 years at a fixed rate.
KY
KY
I may not live that long.But seriously, the Great Depression took five years to find a bottom, after half a dozen bear rallies so why would you believe that that was a bottom anyway? No-one rings a bell. It will be years (I think) before I am likely to recommend a friend to buy a "growth" mutual fund. Anything between now and then will need to be very carefully selected.
Trouble is, you can't sit on cash forever.
'Twas a bit of a tongue-in-cheek question, Bill.
(Gawd, I do wish someone would create a decent TIC icon!!)Agree with you 100% on mutual funds (have never been a big fan of 'em) - and will add A-REITS to that list as well!
Our SMSF is sitting at about 42% cash at the moment - have made a few (hopefully well-selected) purchases in the past couple of months and would like to get the $$$ working a little harder. But what to buy??? I think what I need most is more time to sit and do much, much more research ..... but that isn't about to happen in the next month or so!
..... or maybe I need to spend less time on SS and use that time more productively???
Cheers
Lynn
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Sorry, I missed this when I read it yesterday.
AFI, ARG, MLT.
Plot them on an accumulation basis (DRP on) over 20 years (my timeframe for these LICs).
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/
http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/newsletters/about/index.jsp?lead=192
https://www.intelligentinvestor.com...al-Offer-PS/?gclid=COvErOW4z5kCFQ9JagodhFQ3vA
http://www.reuters.com/
https://wib.westpac.com.au/trevor/D...01456:pJeaMdBkAk8AAAW9oEwAAAAI:20090401101855http://www.fatprophets.com.au/default.aspx
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/
Most information on trading is very costly to obtain, from soap box speakers,high flying drop kicks gurus and all the rest that proclaim to know what will happen, you are better to develop your own style and with a 10 year plan,even with all the bumps
you will do very well imho,target the banks on the div's alone they are value,,this is not advice everybody in this site everyone thinks different,imho..willair..I think sunfish will tell you they will go lower during this time.
There is a risk they will. There is also a risk they will go up, and these will be historic lows. Nobody knows, and if they say they do, they are lying.
All I know if the market has fallen 50%, earnings have not fallen that much (yet), and govts and reserve banks are working like hell to reflate the world's economy.
At some point things will move forwards.
When - your guess is as good as mine.
One thing to ask is what is your goal from share market investing? If its to build a diversified income stream from property over 20 years, I'd say DCA in over the next 20 years and you'll be fine. If its to make some cap gain in the next 12 months, your taking a punt.
I am saying the opposite, but that is simply my humble opinion.
I stress: IMHO, If you're not smarter than the average bear (quoting Yogi) don't go there. I am consistent, I've been saying this for well over a year.
this months smart investor mag made mention of the billions of cash in SMSFs looking for a home.... $42bn or 142bn? dunno but it was a lot
Sorry, it was the DOW charts I had pictured in my mind. I tend to be Amero-centric because that's where the history was written.
Had our economy and unemployment picked up by '34? I must read a bit on that.
Hi – regarding comparisons the 1930’s Great Depression, is anyone taking into account investor’s change in technologies?
It took yrs to regain the losses of the GD, however at the time it might have taken a few days to weeks for an individual to research a stock, place an order, transfer the funds.
Likewise – hypothetically if the Gov of the day had Billions to throw into the market to keep it afloat - Billions would’ve taken months to invest.
Today multimillion to Trillion dollar investment decisions are made in seconds – from picking the stock (or basket of) to the transfer of cash.
As funds can move so fast, as JoeBloes' like us can invest around the world without leaving the bedroom, as we can react to to news stories and other info almost instantly, as there is so much access to cheap trading/investing information, does this change peoples views of the GD in comparison to today?
Keeping this in mind, that ‘it’s different this time”
thx,
It took yrs to regain the losses of the GD, however at the time it might have taken a few days to weeks for an individual to research a stock, place an order, transfer the funds.
Likewise – hypothetically if the Gov of the day had Billions to throw into the market to keep it afloat - Billions would’ve taken months to invest.
Today multimillion to Trillion dollar investment decisions are made in seconds – from picking the stock (or basket of) to the transfer of cash.
As funds can move so fast, as JoeBloes' like us can invest around the world without leaving the bedroom, as we can react to to news stories and other info almost instantly, as there is so much access to cheap trading/investing information, does this change peoples views of the GD in comparison to today?
Keeping this in mind, that ‘it’s different this time”
thx,
Hi all,
Sunny,
The economy was still a mess in 1934, and unemployment was high (it may have stabilized).
The stockmarket was also different back then, a much smaller proportion of all 'business'. This may also be the case with the US market.
What does it all mean? I dunno , except that markets are not rational, logical places.
All I really know is that if you buy what is going up in price (new monthly, quarterly, yearly highs, pick your own poison), you are on the side with the momentum, despite whatever negative news/reports/results are around.
Perhaps, somebody else who is also buying just knows a little bit more than I do.
Of course you always need an uncle point.
bye
Sunny,
The economy was still a mess in 1934, and unemployment was high (it may have stabilized).
The stockmarket was also different back then, a much smaller proportion of all 'business'. This may also be the case with the US market.
What does it all mean? I dunno
, except that markets are not rational, logical places.All I really know is that if you buy what is going up in price (new monthly, quarterly, yearly highs, pick your own poison), you are on the side with the momentum, despite whatever negative news/reports/results are around.
Perhaps, somebody else who is also buying just knows a little bit more than I do
.Of course you always need an uncle point.
bye
Again I'm talking from the US perspective because they write, study and publish history, but everything is different this time round.
In '29 the US was a net creditor, not the worlds greatest ever debtor, and had a strong domestic manufacturing economy.
What hasn't changed is the incompetence of governments and the electorates that just want the silver bullet, not a genuine heeling.
In '29 the US was a net creditor, not the worlds greatest ever debtor, and had a strong domestic manufacturing economy.
What hasn't changed is the incompetence of governments and the electorates that just want the silver bullet, not a genuine heeling.
I'm quietly getting back in the market using that philosophy so I hope you're right.
Sticking very much to the sectors I like, which happen to be the ones with a little momentum.
You don't have to pick bottoms. (or tops) Just buy at a good price and sell higher. Simple. Thats where momentum (or trend) investing applies.
I do it with property and shares. To me, there is no other way. Whether you sell or hold.
Dollar cost averaging is for ameuters/beginners who are happy with average results. You shouldn't be saying 'its the best way' as there are some experienced share pickers/investors on here who have success using other strategies and wouldnt look at DCA for a second. (including myself).
By the way, heres an interesting article.
http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/b/julia-lee/72/shares-are-looking-cheap
I do it with property and shares. To me, there is no other way. Whether you sell or hold.
Dollar cost averaging is for ameuters/beginners who are happy with average results. You shouldn't be saying 'its the best way' as there are some experienced share pickers/investors on here who have success using other strategies and wouldnt look at DCA for a second. (including myself).
By the way, heres an interesting article.
http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/b/julia-lee/72/shares-are-looking-cheap
