In 1996 US academics Thomas Stanley and William Danko published the famous The Millionaire Next Door. The book summarises the habits of wealthy individuals and points out that many became wealthy by living a modest lifestyle. Indeed, your neighbour next door who lives in a modest house, drives a pick up truck and owns two or three Laundromats could be a such an individual. In their work they suggested that people’s expected Net Worth can be predicted by their age and income accordingly to the below formula.
Expected Net Worth = Age X Income / 10
For someone aged 35 earning $100,000 pa their Net Worth should be $350,000. According to Stanley and Danko, if your wealth was greater than this, then you were a prodigious accumulator of wealth (PAW) and if below, you were and underachieving accumulator of wealth (UAW).
We have analysed this correlation and find it does not describe the Australian situation very well, and we suspect it always was an oversimplification for the US system. The latter you can imagine as it penalises the newly employed 20 year old.
We are finding an emerging correlation between wealth (Net Worth) and income for Australians as follows:
Expected Net Worth = ¼ X Income X (Age – 20)
Statistically this relationship explains about 50% of the variation in the data so far analysed. For a couple aged 40, earning $150,000 pa this relationship suggests their expected Net Worth may be $750,000. This relationship is intuitively more correct as in essence it says Net Worth, is equal to one-quarter of the number of years of income an individual or family has earned since age 20. Age 20 seems reasonable as this is when many start work. For those who stay in school longer, then perhaps they enjoy a higher income, savings and investing capacity which makes up for their later start. For those of you anxious about your 20 year old children living at home and not working, maybe you can tell them the clock has started ticking!
The one quarter factor aligns with a gross savings capacity which in early years might match that for a younger person pre-mortgage and pre-kids. Those in their middle years while paying off a mortgage are still adding to their net worth by making principal payments. In later years investment compounding plays an important role buttressing finances.