All P.I.G.S. fed and ready to fly

topcropper said:
How would you possibly benefit from commodities crashing? Australia's growth has been based on this increase in export earnings. The government debt from the last labor government was paid for by mining money by the Libs, and then the surplus we had 2.5 years ago came from mining cashflows and this is what Rudd used for stimulous. It's why Australia was one of the few countries with a government surplus. Continued mining exports from Chinese growth ment our economy thrived. It's why we escaped the GFC allong with the stimulous.

You seem to think Australia will charge along merrily if you took away over half our export earnings? It wouldn't. You would be effected.

Why is the US and Great Britain in trouble and not us? Why is Greece, Spain and the rest in trouble?


See ya's.
Click to expand...

You are looking to macro, i never said australia wouldnt be impacted, i said i wouldnt be impacted, and could well benefit.

Consider, if resources crash, after the inital fall out, non-resource shares might be re-rated upwards.

Also what would be the effect on the AU$.
If the AU$ depreciates what would be the effect on companies such as
Newscorp, CSL, QBE etc.

What would be the effect on overseas companies such as cisco systems, orcacle.
What about australian listed share funds that invest overseas such as MFF.

What about residential australian property?
well this is a sector i am deleveraging from. So if prices do drop, i have plenty of spare LVR to buy.
 
here we go - GFC round two.

i call it to be played out in it's entirity by 2012.

oh, i also call a 40% house price crash, the AUD at 35c, gold to $2500 an ounce and permabears to return to the hallowed halls of bulldom to argue their "ever stronger case" for not investing "just now".

oooh i see an exciting game of "keyboard warriors" ahead, overthe next few years. get that quote button ready!
 
Blue Card! said:
here we go - GFC round two.

i call it to be played out in it's entirity by 2012.

oh, i also call a 40% house price crash, the AUD at 35c, gold to $2500 an ounce and permabears to return to the hallowed halls of bulldom to argue their "ever stronger case" for not investing "just now"!
Click to expand...

You haven't thought of this clearly.
If the GFC gets worse interest rates will be coming down so just about any IP will be positive geared.

Even high end properties will become affordable so I don't know how property prices can come down by 40% in that environment, the market forces won't be there for that to happen.
In fact there will be upwards presssure instead.
 
weg said:
From what I gather it's not only tourism that has suffered but a lot of industry has slowly pulled out over the years too. It was cheaper to go elsewhere.

And yes I agree, a lot of Greeks were against it. When this was discussed when I was there, before they joined the Euro, one of the most frequent complaints I heard was that businesses would be expected to remain open in the afternoon and they'd miss their siesta :confused:.

As much as I love their lay back approach to life it eventually comes back to bite you on the bum if you don't get you're act together during hard times.
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Why the :confused: ?

Makes perfect sens to me what they were saying.

Because someone else dcied Greece shoudl chagne to the euro, the peopel will now have to work longer to make the same amount they ned to survive as they did yesterday i.e. diadvantage 1 / advantage 0.

I was there in 03 and at the markets a common complaint I'd here was "how much ? that's (the equivalent of) 5000 drachmes / kg !!
 
BV said:
You haven't thought of this clearly.
If the GFC gets worse interest rates will be coming down so just about any IP will be positive geared.

Even high end properties will become affordable so I don't know how property prices can come down by 40% in that environment, the market forces won't be there for that to happen.
In fact there will be upwards presssure instead.
Click to expand...

You are assuming the Aus banks remain solvent and continue to lend at 90%+ LVRs (or lend at all!).

The well is dry, the rules will change. No credit = declining prices. Aus property bubble is premised on neverending supply of credit.
 
SYDB said:
The well is dry, the rules will change. No credit = declining prices. Aus property bubble is premised on neverending supply of credit.
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The rules will not change for us because
1. our bank profits are going up and up and up at our expense....:eek:
2. Oz bank exposure to bad loans is minimal
3. Those with money want returns and Australia is considered one of the safest places in the world atm
 
Interestingly, most of European Community have breached the Mastriicht Treaty re current account deficits.

A great article via John Mauldin reveals the French were the ones pushing the Germans to support European Quantitative Easing.

Easy to see why when their CAD is up there with the PIIGS's.

I wouldn't want to buy anything in Euros for some time.

PIIGS%20Plus.jpg
 
topcropper said:
You seem to think Australia will charge along merrily if you took away over half our export earnings? It wouldn't. You would be effected.

Why is the US and Great Britain in trouble and not us? Why is Greece, Spain and the rest in trouble?


See ya's.
Click to expand...
Britain is in the do do for many reasons but many don't realise that North Sea oil is in steep decline and that Britain is now a net importer of oil. Contrast this with Norway who have the lion's share and are still exporting. Someone here remarked recently how well they are doing. Why not?

Resources are getting harder to find and more expensive to extract so it is no coincidence that the resource rich countries are at the top of the heap. China is doing well because they are heartlessly using their cheap labour as a resource to be "mined".

I'm with TC. Our miners are the foundation of our economy. Odd that a South African doesn't see that.
 
Sunfish said:
I'm with TC. Our miners are the foundation of our economy. Odd that a South African doesn't see that.
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I dont need to Sunfish, there are plenty of people like yourself all crowding into the resource sector.
Just watch Skynews business, when they give the opportunity for people to call in with share market questions.
What % relates to resources and what % to non-resources.
Just check out hotcopper, again the number of posts relating to resources and the number relating to non-resources.

I dont like investing in crowded places, the opportunity to invest is harder.
Note here the emphasis on invest, not speculate, not trade.

For speculators and traders they have different rules governing their actions.
As an investor i have seperate rules and i dont plan on muddying them.
 
IV,

You are a trader, but you don't understand it. An investor is an entity that creates things.

BHP by creating a new mine, is investing.

Westpac by opening up a new branch is investing.

Topcropper by planting seed is investing.

For speculators and traders they have different rules governing their actions.
Click to expand...

When you buy and sell bits of paper you are trading. Do you create something or do you trade pieces of paper??

bye
 
Bill.L said:
When you buy and sell bits of paper you are trading. Do you create something or do you trade pieces of paper??

bye
Click to expand...

trading and speculating is important, when you go short on banks and long on mining you diverge the money in something productive, the other way around is just put money into service. same thing into housing you put too much money into housing and you take it out from other places. so trading can be very usefull for the economy to get the money in the right places and take the money out in the wrong places
 
Bill.L said:
IV,

You are a trader, but you don't understand it. An investor is an entity that creates things.

BHP by creating a new mine, is investing.

Westpac by opening up a new branch is investing.

Topcropper by planting seed is investing.



When you buy and sell bits of paper you are trading. Do you create something or do you trade pieces of paper??

bye
Click to expand...
That's a good question,but i like to think that the papers one can buy at any time on the "ASX",do in several ways keep people employed,from the broker-bank transfers-ATO-the people that the companies employ just look at the Banks the high numbers they employ,plus all the employment that spans off them,but your are right you are just trading papers with names and numbers,then it all comes back too are you paying for a dog:),or the pedigree..willair..
 
Bill.L said:
When you buy and sell bits of paper you are trading. Do you create something or do you trade pieces of paper??

bye
Click to expand...
I like junior miners but they regularly need cash injections to advance their projects. I do my bit and subscribe for the new shares hoping that these guys I've never met will spend it wisely. It's a punt but am I "investing"?

BTW I only ask out of curiosity. There is no distinction, and definately no moral distinction in my mind. If someone I have never met, and never wish to meet, wishes to look down their nose at me, why should I care?
 
Intrinsic_Value said:
I dont need to Sunfish, there are plenty of people like yourself all crowding into the resource sector.
Just watch Skynews business, when they give the opportunity for people to call in with share market questions.
What % relates to resources and what % to non-resources.
Just check out hotcopper, again the number of posts relating to resources and the number relating to non-resources.

I dont like investing in crowded places, the opportunity to invest is harder.
Note here the emphasis on invest, not speculate, not trade.

For speculators and traders they have different rules governing their actions.
As an investor i have seperate rules and i dont plan on muddying them.
Click to expand...

IV, isn't the end game boil down to numbers and bottom line. How much money have you made/lost doing whatever you were doing trading/speculating/investing etc. at the end of the year, and the year before that etc.?

It really doesn't matter how you make money as long as you make it, consistently and preferably smartly so you don't have to ruin your health (either by working hard or stressing too much).

All I am interested in is whatever I am doing now is it working and making me more money then me just putting it in the bank?

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
Hi,

The difference between an investor and a trader is that an investor has influence on what his money is doing. When Buffett buys he buys so big that he has a say on how the company spends money (often gains control, like GEICO).

When people say they invest like Buffett, they only do that if they have an influence on the boards decisions, they are then controlling their 'investment' to a degree.

When I buy a share in some company, I have no influence over what happens, because my money is such a small part of the whole, no matter if it was an IPO or just bought on the market. I am trading, hoping to make more from selling later.

bye
 
An investor think he knows what he is doing and he is confident he will be right in the long term. a good Trader is a bit like Rory Robertson and has no real clue on long term fundamental and play by the day. also an investor that borrow to invest is not an investor, he just move the money around from one place to another where he think is better. you are right to say Buffet is an investor and infact he doesn't have much debt (kind of AAA debt), on the other hands to many people try to copy him with very poor results
 
oracle said:
IV, isn't the end game boil down to numbers and bottom line. How much money have you made/lost doing whatever you were doing trading/speculating/investing etc. at the end of the year, and the year before that etc.?

It really doesn't matter how you make money as long as you make it, consistently and preferably smartly so you don't have to ruin your health (either by working hard or stressing too much).

All I am interested in is whatever I am doing now is it working and making me more money then me just putting it in the bank?

Cheers,
Oracle.
Click to expand...

Yes spot on, thats the end game.
Whether you do that as a trader or an investor doesnt matter.

Sunfish keeps suggesting that i 'sneer' at traders.
Nothing could be further from the truth.

What i do constantly remind people is to recognise your method of making money.

THERE ARE DIFFERENT RULES that apply.

If you dont recognise your method, its much harder to take appropriate action.

Bill says that being an 'investor' can only happen if there is control over the assets and then refers to Buffett. This is complete hogwash.
Buffett has quite clearly stated that his preference is for ownership, but where that is not possible he will settle for a 'piece' of the ownership.
People also forget that Birkshire wasnt always the size it was.
Its got to the size it has through being a successful INVESTOR.
Early share positions taken by Buffett did not grant Buffett control over the companies.

Before you shoot your mouth off Bill, you should at least read the information.

For myself i invest, i dont speculate/trade.
This involves trying to estimate not just the current intrinsic value, but where that intrinsic value will move in the future.

With resources i dont have the foggiest how to start. But why do i need to, there are plenty of opportunities out there, where i CAN APPLY MY SKILL SET.
 
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Bill.L said:
Hi,

The difference between an investor and a trader is that an investor has influence on what his money is doing. When Buffett buys he buys so big that he has a say on how the company spends money (often gains control, like GEICO).

When people say they invest like Buffett, they only do that if they have an influence on the boards decisions, they are then controlling their 'investment' to a degree.

When I buy a share in some company, I have no influence over what happens, because my money is such a small part of the whole, no matter if it was an IPO or just bought on the market. I am trading, hoping to make more from selling later.

bye
Click to expand...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Berkshire_Hathaway

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
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