Any room for growth? Can anyone nominate a market ready for some growth.

[always_learning]

Would anyone care to put fingertips to keyboard and nominate an area or market ready for some generalized growth this year?

My only guess is some bargains from overexposed OTP purchases in the high rise unit market in Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane.

 

[Sim]

Originally posted by always_learning
nominate an area or market ready for some generalized growth this year?

I'd suggest the residential real estate market in Australia should see some generalised growth this year

 

[always_learning]

Re: Re: Any room for growth? Can anyone nominate a market ready for some growth.

Originally posted by Sim
I'd suggest the residential real estate market in Australia should see some generalised growth this year

Wow, Sim you are really sticking your neck out to be so specific!

 

[beech]

Im always curious to know if many on the forum purchase a Residex report for any particular state.

From what ive read on here previously from a couple of members they are pretty accurate and are conservative in their numbers.

Surely with the amount of research they do it would be a small price to pay for a report considering the amount of money we spend on property.

I went in to their offices while in Sydney to get some reports but being holidays were closed.

Anyone else buy Residex?

 

[perky29]

I have bought some Residex reports....the last one was over a year ago with Top 100 postcodes for Sydney (June of last year)....but I find that the info is available by going to findmeahome.com.au (which now redirects to Residex.com.au) - and look at the bottmom of the page where you can get a free 5 year projection on a nominated postcode.
You get two goes a month per email address....so then use your wifes and any extra's you may have

 

[Kristine..]

G'day

Well, I reckon there are a few pockets in any city which are overdue for an increase, if only to 'correct' periods of low or no particular growth.

Having had three re-lets in the last quarter of 2003, for each property the old chestnuts still fell from the fire:

Close to schools - as in, true walking distance

Close to areas of blue collar employment - well, not heavy smelters or nuclear power plants, but areas of unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled trades and workshops

Close to everyday type shopping - supermarkets or milk bar

Close to public transport - bus service which connects reasonably efficiently to the train network

Comfortable family homes in good condition with secure backyards and lock up garages.

Employment, schools, transport and shopping are still the big winners.

The glamour properties really are for owner occupiers. Not that when we are renting we don't want quality housing (I'm renting out an exec residence), but if push comes to shove, most people will still rent to a budget.

So Always, if I was buying residential now (and I promised Mike for my New Year's Resolution I would really try and not increase our debt level this year - loud shrieks of laughter from collected New Year's Eve party revellers somewhat dimished the seriousness of this statement!!) I would go for the triple fronted cream brick veneer (or mission brown at a pinch) established homes complete with concrete garden paths and garden gnomes, not renovate just wash down, leave the new kitchen etc for another five years.

In other words, conservative buying which will travel well under it's own steam for the next five to seven years.

And I would apply that within any area, any market, any State or Territory.

So, Always, does that help? Auntie Kristine's tips for 2004: slightly dingy and dated but in otherwise sound condition, on a bus route or two - five streets back from a railway station or school.

As you are out west, I'd say Melton still has some good opportunities and is experiencing estate building for the first time in 15? years. Melton has 14 schools including tertiary campus, train, and the largest expanse of industrial zoned land bank. As a growth corridor, Melton is 9th with Saudi Arabia in 10th place (quoted from Melton Shire web site).

Bundoora is still a bit behind, ditto Thomastown, Reservoir, Lalor, what was the Northern Corridor. The main building activity was endemic during the 70s. I sold 3Br triple fronted spec houses in Lalor in 1975 for $13,995. Yoh! With concrete driveways and side fencing and wrought iron balustrading at the front porch.

Cheers

Kristine

 

[Mrs Bird]

Hi AL

Sunshine...Melbourne!


Fits Kristines criteria but is only 13k's from the cbd.



Mrs Bird

 

[willair]

Always Learing,
I live in inner city brisbane,one area you may wish to look into
is from Dutton Park to Stones Corner on the southside,the reason
i say these areas is because a so called Green Bridge linking those suburbs with the Qld University will start in the new part of this year,we own propertry in these areas,look into units and houses in Stones Corner,real estate stock in these areas is relatively scarce..or units in dutton park for student rentals.
i still think the growth ripple that has extended outwards will now
retreat back to the inner suburbs..Hotspots are identified for their proximity to the city,infrastructure developments,current valuations and traditional suburbs characteristics,,other then that just spin the bottle and see where it stops..
good luck
willair..

 

[always_learning]

Originally posted by Kristine..
G'day
As you are out west,

"Westie-boy" me ( Actually I am a Mentone boy then latter a Koo-Wee-Rup country lad...which could be the reason that I fled for my life)

Well since I am now in Tokyo, I am in the far north!

Actually what you suggest is not too far from my opinion. What about, dead boring dated, but good location on big blocks with potential for dual occupancy/redevelopment in the future. Mulgrave seems still under $300K

Melton, gosh never been there, isnt that where the "westie" types live?

Strange about sunshine, I have monitored it for the last 12 years or so, always the same "it's ready to move, it's under valued". It's problem is it is ugly place, every home owner should contribute $5K and put in underground power and plant some established trees and turn the whole place into "leafy" suburb, prices would increase $50-$100K instantly!

 

[Kristine..]

Sorry Always,

I thought it was yourself who had the sewer drama in Footscray late last year - perhaps that was Acey?

Regarding the beautification of Sunshine - the soil type makes it hard to grow trees. There is a basalt flow from the You Yangs through to Whittlesea, complete with 'rising' scoria rocks. Even with today's water supply, the whole area has a very low rainfall compared to the rest of Melbourne because of the slip stream created by the You Yangs.

A word of caution: if you are looking at the 70s onwards subdivisions , keep in mind that the growth corridors broadly fell into two categories: Three to an Acre, or Four to an Acre.

Essentially, it means that the designated growth areas of those days 9750 sq ft were areas such as Shire of Lillydale, and 5750 sq ft for eg Thomastown.

Developers started to lodge 'One dwelling' covenants on titles on these estates.

So houses built before that time often have larger blocks with no covenant, and thus afford the possibility of futher development either subdivision or rezoning or change of use.

But 1970s stock, subject to 'One Dwelling' restrictions really leave the investor with nowhere much to go.

'Res Code' (Victoria) implies further restrictions and local planning ordinance may have minimum sizes above Res Code guidelines.

So properties built between 1950s and, say, 1980s probably have more latent opportunity than properties built under more uniform planning controls.

Older Dandenong still affords some good buying, with very well established community infrastructure in place, and don't overlook the previous Housing Commission areas within cooee of Monash University. (Actually, Heidelberg West / access to LaTrobe Uni has a lot going for it too and returns seem to be holding well.)

Cheers

Kristine

 

[always_learning]

Yes, it's me with a house in Seddon (inner'ish west melbourne) with the sewage drama last year ( which has been resovled by me consuming $1.5K and my neighbor now pretending nothing happened). The cream brick triple fronted houses that I think off in Mulgrave, to me are from the late 50's 60's, by the 70's estates in Nobel Park were being built (Misson brown, concrete driveways anyone?).

 

[Aceyducey]

Originally posted by Kristine..
Sorry Always,

I thought it was yourself who had the sewer drama in Footscray late last year - perhaps that was Acey?

Nope Kristine, wasn't me

The search button might tell you.....

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[alpina]

what no sydney places?

also, in regards to residex reports, i understand that you can get a report that has the top 10 projected growth suburbs for a year. anyone had any past experiences with these reports?

julie

 

[sanchez]

There was an article in Sunday's paper (think it was the Sunday Telegraph) with the top 100 NSW postcodes for 2004. There were some odd picks in there and fairly high predicted growth rates (mostly over 25%). I think the source was Home Price Guide, but I'm not sure - it wasn't Residex.

I am skeptical as to whether growth for only one year into the future can be predicted with any accuracy - a longer term trend, in my opinion, would be easier to predict. Others might say that the further into the future, the less certain the prediction, but I think that one year's growth can be easily affected by shorter term factors, such as interest rate changes, elections, market sentiment etc. Nonetheless - if you can pick a suburb which booms in the next year, and many people do, well done!

Sanchez

 

[WillG]

I will give it a go and hopefully get some feedback from fellow Canberrans ...


Northside :
Page, Scullin, Kaleen

Inner North :
Ainslie

Woden :
Garran, Pearce

Weston Creek :
Fisher, Waramanga

Southside :
Kambah

All of these suburbs have a large amount of homes built in the 70's, good size blocks and traveling times < 30 minutes to most past of Canberra. I believe these have potential for growth because of the numbers of average houses still available at reasonable prices (in comparison).

 

[Pedro61]

Hi Will,

Agree with most of those, with the exception of Ainslie. I think it may have already seen its best. Its proximity to the CBD has seen some dramatic hikes in the last 3 or so years. Dont know if that rate of growth can continue in the short term. This opinion of mine would also exclude from the "growth" list suburbs like Turner, O'Connor, Lyneham, Reid, Braddon, Deakin, Yarralumla etc.

Others to fit in with your criteria could be Aranda, Cook, Giralang, Evatt, Downer, Hackett (North section), Fraser and many down in the south.

Generally all of the 60's / 70's type of suburbs that are a bit further out than those listed in my first para.

Any ops from more experienced ACT forumites. Acey perhaps, Geoff ??

Cheers

Pedro

 

[Aceyducey]

Watch for the new Aldi at Kippax.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[Celivia]

Originally posted by perky29
I have bought some Residex reports....the last one was over a year ago with Top 100 postcodes for Sydney (June of last year)....but I find that the info is available by going to findmeahome.com.au (which now redirects to Residex.com.au) - and look at the bottmom of the page where you can get a free 5 year projection on a nominated postcode.
You get two goes a month per email address....so then use your wifes and any extra's you may have

Hi, nobody probably remembers me, I haven't been on the forum for a while.

Yes I also am using these findmeahome predictions regularly, but I just wonder how they work this out. If they just use the growth rate from say the past year, of average of past 5 years, to predict the next 5 years, it would not be very reliable. Cuse then they'd be using the figures from the 'booming time', whilst now this boom is over or almost over in many places and growth is slowing down.
Anyone have any idea how they work out these predictions?
I hope they're right with their predictions though, things will look good for me then
Regards Cecilia

 

[perky29]

A lot of the time Residex make these predictions - by the time it goes to print it is 4 odd months later so some of the growth has likely already occurred.
Their predictions are based on past performance of the postcode. They don't speculate on changeing demographics or infrastructure improvements as far as I know....as such they may pick an area to do (for example) 40% over next 5 years not taking into account a major road improvement or such.

 

[Peter Parker]

WillG wrote:

Woden :
Garran

Ahh - I lived there 1995-98. Paying $135pw for 1br p/f flat in Garran Pl. Later rents seemed to drop to as low as $100pw, but I was too dumb to buy some furniture so I still kept paying $135. Around 1997-98 one of the units in my block sold for about $99k. Wonder what it would be worth now? Of course I should have been buying flats in Queanbeyan for $39k a piece, but I was investing elsewhere : (

Though it has a bad reputation due to Burnie Ct, I've thought that Lyons could do well. Though when I was looking in '95, rents there were no cheaper than Garran which was nearer work.

At the time I saw the odd bedsit advertised in Hughes or Curtin for around $50k. Also I remember heaps of cheap flats around Mawson ($60k?). What would they be now - $150k?

Regards, Peter