No, on the 1st May 2010 you called the start of GFC2 for May/June 2010
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61852
ASX crash? (#2)
- Thread starter Sunfish
- Start date
No, on the 1st May 2010 you called the start of GFC2 for May/June 2010
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61852
A beer or a coffee would be my bet.
Bluestorm
Is that your round about way of saying Europe is down 2% today.
The Dow futures are also still down
And countries have been bailed out, with more in the way. Australia property has started correcting. Australia has had one negative quarter, and will soon have two (technical recession), the US is on the edge, markets have fallen 20% so far. Here on Somersoft this is called a "Boom" by the bulls.
Hey, I also said switch super to conservative. My super is currently up 1.3% this FY. Pity the people who left it in Balanced.
There really is no GFC2, because GFC1 never really ended. Governments just kicked the can along.
Hi SF
Absolutely agreed, but a red tonight first.
Lizzie
No-one knows which way the market will head, but trading against the trend
is fraught with danger.
Cheers
Pete
I believe that there is only a low probability of the world entering into another 'double dip' as a whole, and also more importantly for the US.
In my opinion the interaction in global market pricing for assets has more to do with pricing vs valuation vs expected valuation
Or to put it simply:
previous equity prices where too high relative to the underlying fundamentals.
As equity prices correct downwards, they will be better priced relative to the fundamentals.
Looking at the US, there was too much optimism that earnings growth would continue at such a rapid rate. As share prices come back, there will be less pressure, future earnings relative to current prices will come more into balance.
This is all quite healthy, the trouble is that viewed over the very short term (ie on a daily/weekly basis) it looks chaotic, over longer time periods it looks more 'sensible'.
And as usual, in the short term, markets over/under react. The more a market overreacts to something (such as the stimulas from QE3, from excessive future earnings expectations) the more it overreacts when it realises it overreacted in the first place.
Well apologies to you bluestorm you are the one who keeps calling the GFC2here.
So hard to keep up with all your flip flopping.
I disagree here. I think there are already signs that the US is heading for a double dip. And in Europe, Italy and Spain are heading towards a bailout in the next 6mths. Most countries are downgrading their growth forecast. The US is again talking about QE3, trying desperately to keep the economy alive. It won't work.
Agree here. And I think the markets have overreacted this time round again. The resources sector was harder hit today than other sectors
Strange given that we are in a mining boom. So when the markets recover from the overreaction, this sector will bounce back the most.Anyway, each to their own. I make 20% on 4 uranium miners in 1week when they was overreacting and panic about the Japan earthquake. I expect that a bounce next week will again be profitable.
Bravo Bluey, bravo.
The forum is moving steadily in line with the All Ords if the p.i.s.s.i.n.g competition that some of us think we are in, by having them tell us how they shorted some obscure stock and made squillions or beat their chest (and what ever else they beat off on) about some great stock pick during one of the greatest natural disaster's Japan has known and made a few bucks.
You have become your own caricature.
The forum is moving steadily in line with the All Ords if the p.i.s.s.i.n.g competition that some of us think we are in, by having them tell us how they shorted some obscure stock and made squillions or beat their chest (and what ever else they beat off on) about some great stock pick during one of the greatest natural disaster's Japan has known and made a few bucks.
You have become your own caricature.
Well why not. The forum is normally a p.i.s.s.i.n.g competition about property.
I don't really care. The profit was next week will go into a nicely growing pool of money ready for picking up property bargins in late 2013/2014 after the 30% property market correction.
I'm just saying resources got hit harder today than other sectors, so there is a lot of potential for good gains next week.
It's a synergy. Use one to better fund the other. Hey mate, when I'm $12K up next week on a resource market bounce (on a $160K exposure), I'll be thinking about you working for months to save that amount for a loan deposit.
Good luck with that if US unemployment figures come out more than 9.2% tonight.
Do you have adequate risk management strategy in place?
edit: DAX & FTSE both down 2+% in the opening hours.
FTSE was down 4% at open, now down 2.4%
If it does fall more on Monday, then buy more and wait till later in the week for the gains. I think this downward leg has been oversold, and the bargin hunters will come in next week. I like the quick flicks, but 2-4days wait it also OK when needed.
I'll trade a rally up back up to 4500 before maybe the next down leg. I think the world economy is so messed up that we'll be testing GFC level ASX 3200 in 14-15mths.
No risk management strategy this time. I'm confident in the trades, and have been watching these companies over 6mths+.
On another stock forum there is quite a lot of Elliott Wave analysis that is pointing to this mark.
Honestly, I don't see enough positive expectancy to be willing enough to risk anything too short term.
I've been torn to shreds with a small parcel in an Eagle Ford Shale oiler that I bought in April. The unrealised loss pays a small education though.
But I as I have barely employed any capital at this point I am still deciding when to enter. I think now is too soon, 3750 is on the cards short-term if the support at 4150-4200 does not hold.
I am watching the banks with a very keen interest. My focus is on consistently growing income streams in the long-term and they fit the bill. At 3750 WBC and ANZ are well past 8%+ yield + franking credits. Stocks like JBH, WES, and WOW will be appealing then too. I am also watching ASZ, RFG, SMX, MTU, IVC, TGA, MND, CCL for similar reasons.
It is not a matter of what, but when at the moment.
9.1%, maybe the storm is right.
Looks like the luck is with me
US jobs data just out.
"July Jobs Report Shows More Growth Than Expected". U.S. payrolls increased to 117,000 and the unemployment rate dropped to 9.1% in July, the U.S. government said in a better than expected report the day after stocks suffered a major, 4% sell-off.
Europe has already recover most of the losses today (after being down 3.5% on open).
Bring on the nice share profits next week.
Like I said, oversold with all the panic, and looking forward to a rebound up the 4500.US futures have gone from -0.8% to +1.5%. So I'll call a 2%+ rise on Monday for ASX.
There you go property investors see how easy it is.
Bluestorm is tipping the start of GFC2 and his plan is hold his losing positions then average down then get it on the way up next week.
Mate you have to be having a lend of us.
Indeed, see how easy it is property investors. $12K+ in a couple of trading days. Better than $30K CG on a $300K property in 1yr.
