At what stage in the property cycle is your market?

[Beijos2]

I thought it might be interesting to hear peoples perspectives on:
At what stage in the property cycle is your part of the market?

Eg 12 oclock - full boom, you think market is likely to correct itself soon
6 oclock - bottom of the trough,you expect it will climb up

Hope this helps anyone considering interstate or out-of-area purchases.

Ill start

Perth:
Id say the inner suburbs under 600k are about 9-10 oclock, definitely on the upswing, most sell before or at first inspection if priced and located well.
The southern most suburbs such as Rockingham - Mandurah would be more like 7 oclock in my opinion, just starting to come out of a flat period, buyer activity picking up especially in beachside locations under 450k

I have heard western sydney is on the uprise and that adelaide is flat if not still trending down.

 

[The Fence]

My (main) part of the world Central Coast NSW is about 10.30am daylight saving time that is...

 

[HotRod]

...exiting stage left.

 

[Jake Milne]

In my opinion there are no such things as property cycles...

 

[BayView]

In my opinion there are no such things as property cycles...

What do you call the last 3 years then?

Don't tell me; I know what it is....

a "buyers' market"

 

[ipinvestor]

Perth - 9 O'clock sharp

 

[HotRod]

Perth - 9 O'clock sharp

I concur.

 

[mrmonopoly]

Well according to Herron Todd White its probably around 7 O'Clock in Sydney. (Scroll down through PDF to market indicators)

http://www.htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-In-Review-May-2013.pdf

Whilst I would love to believe this is true, personally I take stats like this with a very large pinch of salt.

 

[Beijos2]

In my opinion there are no such things as property cycles...

How do you form this opinion?

 

[Beijos2]

Well according to Herron Todd White its probably around 7 O'Clock in Sydney. (Scroll down through PDF to market indicators)

http://www.htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-In-Review-May-2013.pdf

Whilst I would love to believe this is true, personally I take stats like this with a very large pinch of salt.

I suppose this is a case of markets within markets, as Ive heard western sydney is really going ahead

 

[norwoodman]

Gladstone is around 1-2 O'Clock at the moment (IMO), on the way down after a big build up in the previous few years. Some could argue it might be further around to 3 or 4.

 

[oc1]

In my opinion there are no such things as property cycles...

Surely you're kidding???

Oscar

 

[ritchie77]

In Sydney there are obviously a number of markets but how about:

12 o'clock - Outer Western Sydney (are we there yet?)
10 o'clock - West Sydney (ie Bankstwown, Parra, etc)
9 o'clock - Inner West Sydney and surrounds, Shire, North Shore etc
6 o'clock - high end of market (ie Sydney CBD, Eastern suburbs)

 

[scha9799]

Agreed.


East side of Sydney is subdue.

West side of Sydney is crazy, really hot now !


If really have money and want to pick up a bargain, I guess Eastern Sydney is easier to find .

My experience in Western Sydney. All the bargains have a sticker says SOLD.

 

[MTR]

I am guessing Perth is around 9 depending, outer suburbs such as Rockingham are not quite there yet, however I think we are going to see the market go sideways later this year and then rebound depending on whether we get another IR cut

This is an oldie but a goodie

This book is a brilliant read for anyone who seriously follows cycles, I do

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19621

 

[Jake Milne]

Surely you're kidding???

Oscar

Yes, quite

To be honest I'm a big believer that historic patterns tend to repeat themselves over certain intervals and if that's coined "cyclical" then so be it.

As far as the property clock... It's just elaborate marketing/sales speak. There is no set cycle for all property in Australia or in a whole state or in a whole city...

Markets are made up of the needs of thousands of people that are all influenced by many different factors, some which apply to all, others which apply to minorities.

So whilst there are definitely market cycles, I'd argue that generalising the performance of a whole city by the use of a magical clock is fool hardy at best.

 

[Jamie M]

My personal observations in Canberra are that sub $500k properties - especially detached houses are being snapped up quite quickly which is probably the result of competition from FHBs.

There are good deals out there for $600k+ properties due to less competition, particularly from first home buyers. That side of the market isn't moving too quickly.

The interest in the OTP market has slowed down - not seeing a lot of clients purchase them these days (for good reason IMO).

Cheers

Jamie