Aussie property could drop 50% or more

[BayView]

Did he ? When was that ?

It was in the book; "Rich Dad's Prophecy", and was a rough prediction relating to when all the baby boomers started to exit the workforce and begin to extract all the pension (401K) funds they have in the stock market through the various managed funds etc.

Did he also predict his own bankruptcy .....

I think that was a carefully orchestrated strategy.

( BTW , i Do have a lot of time for RK , just not when people go into specific timed predictions )

It wasn't specific - he said around the 2014 time frame, but could be a little earlier or later.

 

[see_change]

It was in the book; "Rich Dad's Prophecy", and
It wasn't specific - he said around the 2014 time frame, but could be a little earlier or later.

Wasn't Prophecy pre GCF ?

could it have already occured ...

Cliff

 

[BayView]

Wasn't Prophecy pre GCF ?

could it have already occured ...

Cliff

It was pre GFC, but his reasons were different - GFC was just an approximate coincidence I reckon.

Imagine a similar thing to that again - this year!

 

[mflying]

i don't think that property price will drop 40-90%, as we have following parameters in place

Negative gearing
Shortage of dwelling
Strong immigration
okay retail market and employment,

So what he says is defiantly out of question (well time will tell)

 

[Tulamalula]

When, in the history of property, has Australian RE dropped 40-90%

Ridiculous

 

[Nemo30]

Our credit system is different to the US as well.

When the US market crashed, people with negative equity could walk away from the house, effectively wiping their debt - see 'strategic default'

In Australia if you leave your house, you still have to pay the outstanding loan balance (unless declaring bankruptcy).

 

[MTR]

Our credit system is different to the US as well.

When the US market crashed, people with negative equity could walk away from the house, effectively wiping their debt - see 'strategic default'

In Australia if you leave your house, you still have to pay the outstanding loan balance (unless declaring bankruptcy).

That's correct.
I also heard that what some people did was walk away from their homes and purchase down the street, because property values dropped as much as 60-70% in some States and their loans were much greater than the value of the actual property.

 

[roe]

Our credit system is different to the US as well.

When the US market crashed, people with negative equity could walk away from the house, effectively wiping their debt - see 'strategic default'

In Australia if you leave your house, you still have to pay the outstanding loan balance (unless declaring bankruptcy).

That is not quite correct..only a dozen or so states has non-recourse loan, the majority of the states has recourse loan...

http://www.richmondfed.org/publicat...pdf/wp09-10r.pdf?WT.si_n=Search&WT.si_x=3

Scroll down to page 33 and see which state does/doesnt.

and I don't believe doom day predictor, asset price will fall and rise it just a cycle of greed and fear but predict when and how much is guess work

 

[MTR]

That is not quite correct..only a dozen or so states has non-recourse loan, the majority of the states has recourse loan...

http://www.richmondfed.org/publicat...pdf/wp09-10r.pdf?WT.si_n=Search&WT.si_x=3

Scroll down to page 33 and see which state does/doesnt.

and I don't believe doom day predictor, asset price will fall and rise it just a cycle of greed and fear but predict when and how much is guess work

I see, thanks.
I was US loans were non recourse, obviously given the wrong info

 

[Ausprop]

just want to note that there was plenty of property in WA that dropped 20,30,40% during the gfc and is yet to recover. to drop this amount again seems a bit of a stretch

 

[Ausprop]

it's funny when you search these sorts of threads going back a bit. this was a good one, whereby OP had declared the arrival of a soft depression )....

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49539

 

[MTR]

it's funny when you search these sorts of threads going back a bit. this was a good one, whereby OP had declared the arrival of a soft depression )....

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49539

Had a quick look, thread is way too long to read, but my guess many of these people are no longer posting.

 

[Ausprop]

Had a quick look, thread is way too long to read, but my guess many of these people are no longer posting.

the first post was enough... start searching for mothers of booms and gfc's etc and it's a battleground of shot down theories

and interestingly China did carry us

 

[MTR]

the first post was enough... start searching for mothers of booms and gfc's etc and it's a battleground of shot down theories

and interestingly China did carry us

Apparently 80% of what people worry about never happens. I don't mind those stats.

 

[devank]

Had a quick look, thread is way too long to read, but my guess many of these people are no longer posting.

It was a good read. There is a pattern with people who disappear
OP was going on and on and on and on... but never answered 'why'.

 

[topcropper]

it's funny when you search these sorts of threads going back a bit. this was a good one, whereby OP had declared the arrival of a soft depression )....

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49539

That was a good read. It was right at the bottom of the GFC too, Feb 2009. So really it was all uphill from there. So it was really the start of the new boom?


See ya's.

 

[Deltaberry]

After some auctions today, it might well drop 50% to bring it back to 2012 prices.

 

[Truly Exotic]

After some auctions today, it might well drop 50% to bring it back to 2012 prices.

Do explain

 

[pieman]

Do explain

Market in some sectors is running very hard ATM

 

[Colin Rice]

Apparently 80% of what people worry about never happens. I don't mind those stats.

I reckon that is a conservative figure and closer to 100%.