Australia facing a recession in 2014? Economist says RBA needs rates cut of 1.25%!
- Thread starter Peter 14.7
- Start date
This is a good result no denying the fact...but if you look broader the RBA has cut rates 175bps (from 4.75 to 3%) at the same time headline unemployment has gone up from 5% to 5.2%
I think the next 6 months will be telling.
Which probably means the interest rate reductions at least to this stage (i'll ignore cash rate because the actual rates in the market have fallen much less than that) are doing what they are supposed to. With more room if things do go worse.
Yes, agree next few months will be interesting.
I have no faith in the employment rate measure.
We run a small business. For 4 of our 5 last employees we got gov subsidy of between 50% to 90% of their entire wage for 6 months plus uniform. These don't show up in the books but we are essentially getting staff for very little.
Also the participation rate go up and down.
In the end, even if people have job, if they are nervous of having no job, they will not spend. Even my Gen Y staff are nervous re the economy for the first time ever. In 2009 they said "yea, we got a bonus of $1000" this time they are very concerned about the economy.
FYI I could be wrong Peter
The official unemployment rate is a government scam.People have given up looking for work. How many might work for 1 day a week yet classified as employed.Cant register as they have been retrenched and cant apply to centrelink until they have less assets etc
Shorten,Swan,Gillard are all full of spin when they boast about 5.2% unemployment rate.
Shorten,Swan,Gillard are all full of spin when they boast about 5.2% unemployment rate.
That's been the definition for years now. Nothing has changed. Why all of a sudden challenge the veracity of the definition now?
We didn't have the same rancour when unemployment rate got to low 4's under the previous government.
You are mixing your reaction of your opinion of the current government, with the ABS collection of data, which is independent the current government irrespective of its colour.
Not sure how relevant this is to RBA rate cutting and the purpose of this thread.
Fine if people want to vent their feelings about the current government. There is plenty to discuss on that front. But don't let it colour all responses on matters relating to rationale debate on public policy.
The statement was that Aussies seemingly love to pay higher prices for stuff willingly.
My reply with the examples was illustrating the various ways they/we try to pay less.
Thanks for that,but these days it's not all black and white anymore,there is also the grey area that not many see,,in a free country one can think the way they want ,with the chain of fast buck visionaries thinking they have it right..
This is the smoking gun...we now have conclusive proof that the PM is an extremely effective and convincing LIAR...
nonsense, Most people are very uncomfortable with a high dollar if they arent they should be. It doesnt matter how cheap something is if you dont have money to pay for it. People wages arent distibuted from a magical never emptying bucket of money. Nor are dole payments and other services
That's around 27% of the countries population now in recession...
http://www.switzer.com.au/your-money/loans/good-on-ya-gilly/
currency wars
after reading Rickards 'Currency Wars', it seems to be like this: the major countries / zones (US, UK, CHina, Europe) are trying to devalue their currencies. This makes their exports cheaper but it becomes a battle to the bottom.
If we tried to do this here in Oz, with some of our biggest exports being mining related (eg iron ore etc -please correct me if I am wrong), would a weaker dollar equal a weaker commodities / export price?
If this is so, we saw with the dip of a few months ago the havoc this plays with our biggest sector (mining).
Therefore, a strong dollar and subsequent expensive but in demand exports are protecting us from the nastiness of the current currency war.
after reading Rickards 'Currency Wars', it seems to be like this: the major countries / zones (US, UK, CHina, Europe) are trying to devalue their currencies. This makes their exports cheaper but it becomes a battle to the bottom.
If we tried to do this here in Oz, with some of our biggest exports being mining related (eg iron ore etc -please correct me if I am wrong), would a weaker dollar equal a weaker commodities / export price?
If this is so, we saw with the dip of a few months ago the havoc this plays with our biggest sector (mining).
Therefore, a strong dollar and subsequent expensive but in demand exports are protecting us from the nastiness of the current currency war.
god, the Vic vs NSW debate never ends - even who has more weight to drag an economy DOWN....
Well in reality Western Australia holds that card at the momentgod, the Vic vs NSW debate never ends - even who has more weight to drag an economy DOWN....
In the Q3 results for state final demand (seasonally adjusted) it was only WA & NSW positive (and NSW only by a fraction):
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/67778B95238F0699CA257ACA000FDE33/$File/52060_sep%202012.pdf
Iron ore has stabilised in price for now, so maybe WA can help stave off a national recession for a little longer, but things are definitely not looking too crash hot for the rest of us...
This summary from NAB Business Survey:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/12/nab-survey-smokes-economy/
Just goes to show how worried they must be on the big scale of things once cemented into people's consciousness..
That's quite some prediction since the RBA board aren't scheduled to meet in Jan.
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