Australia facing a recession in 2014? Economist says RBA needs rates cut of 1.25%!
- Thread starter Peter 14.7
- Start date
Who knows but it is at least until after 2013 election likely to be October. Then new gov is lib the policy needs clarification then xmas 2013 then holidays so ar best feb 2014 before an announcement to recomence IMO. If Labor gets in, maybee never.
And them with South America expanding big time will we miss the (mineral ore) boat, literally?
Peter 14.7
Kloppers and SA Premier Jay Weatherill met in November and announced an extension of the indenture agreement to October 2016.
BHP will spend $650 million over the next four years.
$110 million on mine research.
$540 million re-scoping the expansion.
Another hurdle will be overcoming environmental concerns about the proposed acid-intensive heap leaching mining process.
I remember reading all the same garbage in 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 and we are still reading about it.
Guess what, the more you all get worried about the property bust the mining bust the world ending or what ever other garbage that is out there, then bad things will happen around your life, be positive and only talk about good things that are going to happen otherwise you will only get yourself down and everyone around you which will lead to a bust, talk positive write positive and you will make money do the opposite and you will not.
The mining boom ain't coming to a end, some mines may come to an end or slow but there will be plenty that charge forward for a long time.
The property market has been a 3 legged dog for a while but the bottom is already here and things are starting to turn for the better, the agents I talk to say they have seen a massive change in the last few months and things are selling, everywhere I look I see more sold signs than what I seen in the last 5 years.
Yea the commercial market has lease and sale signs everywhere but if your eyes were closed 12-24 months ago then I guess you wouldn't have noticed that there was double the stock on the market, things are deffinitly getting busier with commercial, things are selling and leasing, this means businesses are starting or moving etc.
I am talking about Brisbane Gold Coast and some QLD areas so your area may be completely different but from what I am seeing things are happening compared to what they were.
Yea you hear of all these cheap properties in the states but if you seen where some of these cheap homes are then you wouldn't even want to go there, pictures can be desceiving, good locations dropped but not like what you hear or think.
Remember one thing, the media is full of sh.., they make up any good sounding story to sell news papers to make money, if they didn't then what would happen, they would go broke.
You can be scared and do nothing and you will never acheive anything, you can move forward and make the step to buying a property or starting a business or whatever and you will make something.
you won't make money thinking about it so go out and actually do it, grow some big kahooners...
Guess what, the more you all get worried about the property bust the mining bust the world ending or what ever other garbage that is out there, then bad things will happen around your life, be positive and only talk about good things that are going to happen otherwise you will only get yourself down and everyone around you which will lead to a bust, talk positive write positive and you will make money do the opposite and you will not.
The mining boom ain't coming to a end, some mines may come to an end or slow but there will be plenty that charge forward for a long time.
The property market has been a 3 legged dog for a while but the bottom is already here and things are starting to turn for the better, the agents I talk to say they have seen a massive change in the last few months and things are selling, everywhere I look I see more sold signs than what I seen in the last 5 years.
Yea the commercial market has lease and sale signs everywhere but if your eyes were closed 12-24 months ago then I guess you wouldn't have noticed that there was double the stock on the market, things are deffinitly getting busier with commercial, things are selling and leasing, this means businesses are starting or moving etc.
I am talking about Brisbane Gold Coast and some QLD areas so your area may be completely different but from what I am seeing things are happening compared to what they were.
Yea you hear of all these cheap properties in the states but if you seen where some of these cheap homes are then you wouldn't even want to go there, pictures can be desceiving, good locations dropped but not like what you hear or think.
Remember one thing, the media is full of sh.., they make up any good sounding story to sell news papers to make money, if they didn't then what would happen, they would go broke.
You can be scared and do nothing and you will never acheive anything, you can move forward and make the step to buying a property or starting a business or whatever and you will make something.
you won't make money thinking about it so go out and actually do it, grow some big kahooners...
No way Hosie, The economy is in trouble now with the high dollar, lowering interest rates isnt working, if further rate cuts have no effect, other interventionist policies will be taken by the RBA such as supply manipulation, possibly by printing more money.
NO, Morale was high when the dollar was low.
They where boom times when the dollar was at 50c. The high dollar now has evaporated confidence and lowered moral. A happy median would be 80-90c.
I remember playing golf at Kew Golf Club in a pro-am back in about '85
with one of the sponsors of the event - the guy who owned Pilgrim Golf Buggies.
At that time, Pilgrim were easily the biggest manufacturer and supplier of golf buggies in Australia, and were doing well overseas as well. The dollar was around the 50-60c mark back then, and it had recently jumped up to around the higher 60's from memory.
I was talking to this fellow as we went around, about his business etc, and he moaned to me how the higher dollar was really hurting his business. At the time I new bugger all about how it all worked (still don't) and I thought a higher dollar would be a good thing. wrong, of course.
Now, the company is way smaller and the manufacturing has closed. He imports from o/s now, but nothing like the heady heights of back then - lots more competition from cheap importers.
The shelving of Olympic Dam has more to do with market fundamentals than rhetoric about which party is in politics.
I worked with some of the guys who made the decision to shelve it.
And yet the Euro remains relatively stable, around 1.30.
A theory that makes sense says that the US / China need a resilient Euro that sits above their currencies in order for their exports to retain a price advantage. I think it might be spot on.
We're well placed for now but in the midst of a currency war that could get ugly.
Can I please add to this..................mistake no. 1. never, ever listen to so called economists/academics etc., I have posted this link many times on the forum, coz its logical. Here I go again
http://danerwin.typepad.com/my_weblog/2011/02/ten-reasons-why-economists-get-it-wrong.html
Cheers, MTR
If economists get it right, they wouldn't be telling you how to do it. They would've made it themselves.
Last I heard ANZ's chief economist predicted the AUD would hit 1.20 in 2012. Oh and they just recently predicted interest rates would fall by another 1% 2013 The first prediction was obviously wrong (unless it hits 1.20 in the next 7 days) and the second prediction would probably be wrong too. But in the offchance it's not, watch out for the hot money and boom.
What economists don't tell you is that the theories might say one thing, but ultimately the market is irrational. Some recent examples?
Well according to economic theory, if your interest rates are high, your currency should fall. That clearly hasn't happened with the AUD. Another one, if you increase taxation on something, demand should fall. Well in HK they introduced the 15% buyer's stamp duty for non-HK citizens (therefore Chinese who are not HK citizens have to pay this tax too). What happend? Prices rocketed antoher 10% last month because obviously the property there must be good since the government is trying to stop us from buying it.
Last I heard ANZ's chief economist predicted the AUD would hit 1.20 in 2012. Oh and they just recently predicted interest rates would fall by another 1% 2013 The first prediction was obviously wrong (unless it hits 1.20 in the next 7 days) and the second prediction would probably be wrong too. But in the offchance it's not, watch out for the hot money and boom.
What economists don't tell you is that the theories might say one thing, but ultimately the market is irrational. Some recent examples?
Well according to economic theory, if your interest rates are high, your currency should fall. That clearly hasn't happened with the AUD. Another one, if you increase taxation on something, demand should fall. Well in HK they introduced the 15% buyer's stamp duty for non-HK citizens (therefore Chinese who are not HK citizens have to pay this tax too). What happend? Prices rocketed antoher 10% last month because obviously the property there must be good since the government is trying to stop us from buying it.
Really? Nonsense. The two skill sets are totally different. This is Ross Gittins view
Interest rates high to what? Historical levels, other countries.....How about cross-border capital flows when interest rates are higher? What if higher interest rates means a healthier economy to other countries? Sounds like something close to what we have today in Australia.
I suspect the banks economists would have a very real vested interest in getting it right because I have no doubt their banks rely on their insight & assumptions which would be inputs into strategy formulation & business plans.
1. High relative to other countries. It's just an economic theory. It might mean having a healthier economy, but just saying the economic theory as it is.
2. No the banks don't really rely on the economists' assumptions as inputs to be honest. There are at least two people on this forum who have worked/dealt with the bank's internal strategy team (the one where they analyse whether say NAB should merge with say Standard Chartered or not) and they can probably vouch for that.
2. No the banks don't really rely on the economists' assumptions as inputs to be honest. There are at least two people on this forum who have worked/dealt with the bank's internal strategy team (the one where they analyse whether say NAB should merge with say Standard Chartered or not) and they can probably vouch for that.
The theory changed in the 90's.
Basic premise is higher interest rates => capital inflow => demand for currency
AFR says IR lowering is starting to take effect.
http://www.afr.com/f/free/markets/m..._rate_starting_to_bite_mG7UikmXtsCBFr2YpyDSFL
Asked to post by lurker/friend, Peter 14.7
http://www.afr.com/f/free/markets/m..._rate_starting_to_bite_mG7UikmXtsCBFr2YpyDSFL
Asked to post by lurker/friend, Peter 14.7
Free online access till end of Jan 2013
Thanks for that link Peter. I had read that recently.
Clicked the promo advert that came witth the article and I just signed up for free digital access for the month of Jan. Expires Jan 31st. I buy the Fin from time to time. Usually the bumper long weekend editions and usually Thrursday's edition (large property coverage). The rest of the time I read in cafes where available.
Thanks for leading me there today
Thanks for that link Peter. I had read that recently.
Clicked the promo advert that came witth the article and I just signed up for free digital access for the month of Jan. Expires Jan 31st. I buy the Fin from time to time. Usually the bumper long weekend editions and usually Thrursday's edition (large property coverage). The rest of the time I read in cafes where available.
Thanks for leading me there today
Thanks for that link Peter. I had read that recently.
Clicked the promo advert that came witth the article and I just signed up for free digital access for the month of Jan. Expires Jan 31st. I buy the Fin from time to time. Usually the bumper long weekend editions and usually Thrursday's edition (large property coverage). The rest of the time I read in cafes where available.
Thanks for leading me there today
Thanks for telling me of link as a friend really did send it and I just posted.
Peter
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