Australia prices falling faster than US at same stage of cycle

[sphinx]

Bumped into a paper on this website: "Prices falling faster than US at same stage of cycle" http://www.geocities.com/homes4aussies/h4a081104.pdf (homepage: http://www.geocities.com/homes4aussies/)


* If the peak was March 2008, in the first 6 months till Sept.(ABS's Dec. data won't be out till Feb02), Australia prices are falling faster than US at same stage of cycle. (US house prices didn't drop like a stone.. and there were plenty denials in the 1/2-1 year)

* some discussion on how media/housing price data companies have been trying to switch to long term data (1 year) rather than short term (6 month) to cover the fact of dramatic falling.

Interesting read.

 

[andrew_de_a]

lol dr brett...........

 

[lizzie]

who's peak was 2008? ours or the usa?

i don't recall seeing any peak in any stage of 2008 in sydney - maybe a slight market up/down ruffle (of which there are several every year regardless of the stage of the cycle), but certainly not a peak. in fact i don't recall seeing a major "peak" since 2004 ... which puts us about 3 years ahead of the usa.

 

[Propertunity]

Mmmmm, I stopped reading shortly after the good "Doctor" stated "In an earlier paper I forecasted that data will show that the Australian housing market peaked in the March quarter of 2008".

SYD peaked in 2003 and areas like Newcastle, Central Coast etc as lizzie says, peaked in 2004. OK, I read some more and see that the "Dr" referred to the RBA head: "Mr Battelino’s entire argument for continued strong house prices in Australia hinges on his farcical assertion that our housing markets peaked in 2003, three years earlier than in the US". Well maybe the head of the RBA has access to better data than Mr Brett Edgerton....I mean Doctor

Really, with this guy's stuff and the other 'stuff' put out by BIS - perhaps we should start a new Somersoft Award for facical economic predictions and annouce a winner (weiner) every quarter?

 

[landlubber]

Actually not a bad article ... in general. We KNOW property prices don't go up in straight lines. We know there are slumps after "peaks". No news there. Will we fall like the US? .. I doubt it ..but nobody can be 100% certain. There are lots of storms around atm, that's for sure.

But I refer all to Appendix 3 on page 14...and I quote
"One thing is certain - there is a shortage of affordable rental accommodation!"

That's all I need to know! ...and also, it's a real pig of a problem to increase supply for LOTS of reasons... so that means we can expect strong demand into the future with regular rent increases....and probably more IR cuts.

That will do very nicely thanks !
LL

 

[willair]

Bumped into a paper on this website: "Prices falling faster than US at same stage of cycle" http://www.geocities.com/homes4aussies/h4a081104.pdf (homepage: http://www.geocities.com/homes4aussies/)


* If the peak was March 2008, in the first 6 months till Sept.(ABS's Dec. data won't be out till Feb02), Australia prices are falling faster than US at same stage of cycle. (US house prices didn't drop like a stone.. and there were plenty denials in the 1/2-1 year)

* some discussion on how media/housing price data companies have been trying to switch to long term data (1 year) rather than short term (6 month) to cover the fact of dramatic falling.

Interesting read.

You think so,some parts of inner Brisbane along the river have been going up 12% plus for the past 15 years,and as property markets aremarkets within markets this means nothing..willair..

 

[james_w]

free geocities website and he expects people to take him seriously I seen geocities and didn't even bother I guess people here don't read much of the D&G saga as in the last week at least four homes went under contract still not moving as quick as the boom,but for a small suburb that's still quite impressive.

 

[Aaron Sice]

there was a "peak" in 2008????

 

[boomtown]

there was a "peak" in 2008????

I dunno. REA.com has a property slightly inferior to the one I purchased in September days before the meltdown - asking price is 10% more than I paid 4 months ago.

Doesnt look like inner Brisbane has peaked yet to me.

 

[sphinx]

mmm.. a lot of desperate personal attacks of the author and the website.

Not a single one is arguing with the fact - "Australia prices falling faster than US at same stage of cycle." (Mar. to Sept.) Let's see what happens when the ABS Dec. data is out on Feb. 2nd.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

I read somewhere that the guy who runs this site is a uni graduate who went and studied biology or something, and then drifted around on various scientific gigs and didn't buy a home. By the time he figured out that he wanted to buy, prices were high, and because he didn't start young, things aren't looking so rosy.

 

[Dazz]

there was a "peak" in 2008????

We had a peak in March 01 over here in Perth bluecard. Sydney followed us a couple of years later. Then Melbourne, then Brisbane. Adelaide / Hobart and Darwin obviously don't count.

We had another peak in Sept 06, so I suspect it's Sydney's turn again this year. There is a big lag for them to catch up. The ripple emanating from Perth takes a while to cross the Nullabor.

They all follow Perth like a little train, with Perth acting as the locomotive with all of it's resource wealth. The chaps over the other side of the paddock in the finance and insurance industries just have to wait their turn. Toot toot.

 

[yorke]

Bumped into a paper on this website: "Prices falling faster than US at same stage of cycle" http://www.geocities.com/homes4aussies/h4a081104.pdf (homepage: http://www.geocities.com/homes4aussies/)

Come on sphinxter, that's scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Even the guys on the other site don't take that socialist loser seriously. Here is a read for you that DOES looks interesting, you may want to post it on the other place in case they missed it.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/house-sale-prices-head-north-west-20090114-7h1d.html

House sale prices head north, west

* January 15, 2009

HOUSE prices increased substantially in Melbourne's more affordable outer northern and western suburbs after the first-home buyer's grant doubled in October, according to monitoring agency Residex.

- House prices rise in north, west
- First-home buyer's grant boost
- Broadmeadows tops the list

Broadmeadows topped the list, with house sales values up almost 6 per cent in the last three months of 2008 to $269,500. Niddrie ran second, up 4.5 per cent to $571,500, while the first-home buyer's enclave of Caroline Springs grew 4 per cent to $324,500. Sunshine and Albion also made the top five for price growth.

More first-home buyers signed on the dotted line for mortgages in November than in any of the 12 months previous, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. The confidence sparked in first-home buyers is good news for sellers in affordable suburbs, but could mean inflated prices for buyers.

House sales prices in Hawthorn suffered the worst fall at the end of last year, down 3.88 per cent to $1,206,500, according to the report. Price drops of 2 to 3 per cent were also recorded in Richmond, Toorak, Elsternwick and Brighton as the sharemarket crisis hit the wealthier end of town.

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j212/krisperton/jj page/haha_simpsons.jpg

 

[nhb74]

haha

This guy is a renter and potential first home buyer! Of course he would like prices to crash. He also most likely missed out on making a fortune in property in the last ten years
Actually I don't know much about him at all, but I'm just getting tired of some people predicting doom and gloom.

Andrew

 

[yorke]

mmm.. a lot of desperate personal attacks of the author and the website.

Not a single one is arguing with the fact - "Australia prices falling faster than US at same stage of cycle." (Mar. to Sept.) Let's see what happens when the ABS Dec. data is out on Feb. 2nd.

Come on mate, the guy is delusional and probably in need of professional help as well. He's got no real job and used to spend his days blogging on every online paper before readers got sick of him and started poking fun at him. Now he's gone undercover and posts under a few different aliases. Trying to argue with him is pointless, he needs medication.

 

[sphinx]

Come on mate, the guy is delusional and probably in need of professional help as well. He's got no real job and used to spend his days blogging on every online paper before readers got sick of him and started poking fun at him. Now he's gone undercover and posts under a few different aliases. Trying to argue with him is pointless, he needs medication.

yet another personal attack.
It would be much more convincing if one single poster on this forum can look at the factual data and say it is wrong. A fact is a fact no matter who says it.

 

[ffc1883_1996]

Please everyone – stop feeding the trolls.

 

[turk]

yet another personal attack.
It would be much more convincing if one single poster on this forum can look at the factual data and say it is wrong. A fact is a fact no matter who says it.

Hi Sphinx

You seem to like to support these misguided reports like a little parrot.

However I completely agree with you in one area, that is we need some
factual data to say this report is right or wrong.

Now I've just spent a few minutes googling ABS data, the link follows.


http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument


The June quarter drop was.2% the Sept qu. drop was 1.8% a total of
less than 2%, hardly dropping like a stone in my book.

I challenge you to do your own research and produce US gov. stats
showing the drop from their peak to 6 months later.

Lets compare apples with apples.

Looking forward to your research results.

Cheers

Pete

 

[boomtown]

A fact is a fact no matter who says it.

How is this for a fact.

In my area the median price in Nov 08 was $475k. In Dec 08 the median price was $910k.







Its awesome what light volume can do for statistics.

 

[nhb74]

How is this for a fact.

In my area the median price in Nov 08 was $475k. In Dec 08 the median price was $910k.

Hey Boomtown, Isn't the median price the middle amount of number of sales?
eg. $4 $9 $2.. the median price would be $9? If that's the case than it could change by quite a bit every month? It would still be an indication of prices increasing but not as good as the average sale price?

Thanks
Andrew