how about a rebuttal, DB?
aussie banks could actually trigger growth.
In fact, aussie banks could have stopped the bum falling out of the market.
the over-tightening of lending criteria in 2009 and 2010 meant a lot of supply couldn't some to market. some developers i know of even had that "all monies" clause exercised.
they still aren't in a mood for lending.
this has it's first wave of leaving a lot of property on the market, creating bargains. people buy those bargains, prices stabilise. herd moves in, prices rise to previous level.
sounds like Melb and Syd, no?
second wave is that lending criteria is still tight. so everyone tries to capitalise on the herd buying and they too put their house on the market.
no credit = no purchases, so we're oversupplied again.
Melb and Syd now, along with Perth, 2010.
third wave - coming up - wage growth or credit easing allows people better serviceability. purchases happen as stale stock is pulled from market, creating a reduction in supply but a healthy buying pattern underneath (ie, no one's rushing to buy).
saw last night stock in Perth in Oct was 19500ish, Nov was 20500ish, Dec was 22397, in Jan is back to 19500ish.
stale listings being removed while buyers are purchasing.
this doesn't equal boom, or growth. it provides a tipping point in the figures which could be why we're seeing a bit of optimism.
not much, but enough to stabilise prices somewhat.
stable prices plus optimism would be a "reset clock" in context with what we've just seen across the country.
and all because of tightern lending criteria being maintained regardless of market condition.
i think sometime peole look for answers in figures too far removed from the sentiment at the coalface. i can't explain this anymore than i can explain a rush of buying in an oversupplied market.
I do think the market is fairly poised right now. Plus people are wary & saving more. This could have quite an impact in some areas.
