Australian Property Market - 2011

[bluestorm]

I would contest that we had a boom till 2003, then a bust till 2006, then some growth till 2007, then a bust till 2009, then some more growth in 2010 onwards.

You call a short flat period after a massive rise a bust? 2007-2009 a bust, when prices still rose? Maybe the property spruikers have a different definition of "bust" to the rest of society. The "bust" is yet to come the next couple of years.

Property spruiker definition. Boom - prices rise 15%/yr. Bust - prices rise 5%/yr. Total collapse - prices rise 2%/yr.

 

[devo76]

You call a short flat period after a massive rise a bust? 2007-2009 a bust, when prices still rose? Maybe the property spruikers have a different definition of "bust" to the rest of society. The "bust" is yet to come the next couple of years.

That massive rise came on the back of a long flat period for many areas.
Flat- boom- flat -slight pickup-slight correction. Nothing unusual here.

 

[Propertunity]

That massive rise came on the back of a long flat period for many areas.
Flat- boom- flat -slight pickup-slight correction. Nothing unusual here.

That's right - same ole, same ole........and yet we are expected to believe that it will all be different from now on, or from 2012

 

[Wunderbar]

Oh please, just because I am not a property spruiker does not mean I have not done my research.

The simple fact is this country encourages people to buy properties because most people are on a wage and it is the logical investment decision because people don't start their own businesses. The tax system facilitates this type of thinking and discourages entrepreneurship.

 

[Propertunity]

The tax system facilitates this type of thinking and discourages entrepreneurship.

....and you are single-handedly attempting to change this?

Bear in mind, the vast majority of the population are no good at running their own business. 80% fail in the first 5 years and I think (??) of the remaining 20%, 80% of them fail in the next 5 years, so the odds are not good.

 

[Deltaberry]

I've got no idea (just like bluestorm) but here I go.

Sydney will start being the economic powerhouse again (when Barry gets in on 28 March) and will start leading the growth in house prices in Australia. This will then start rippling out to the rest of the country and when interest rates peak in three years time and the aussie dollar is back at 70 cents we will see the boom happen again which will then be followed by a bust and then another boom etc etc just as it always has.

When people say Australian property is overvalued by 40% etc I put this valuation down to the fact that we are truly truly the luckiest country in the world with opportunities galore and wouldn't you pay a premium for that. Not to mention we must be one of only very few countries in the world where most of us live so close to the water and you know what water does for property prices.

What are you talking about?

It's got nothing to do with being a 'lucky country'. It's about whether your citizens and residents alike can afford the houses? And if they can't then who's buying it...? Spruikers with massive amounts of debt? Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

For the record, Sydney has always been the financial powerhouse of the country, even though it's not exactly 'booming like a mad cow with disease'. It's the same as New York City and Tokyo, which are still financial powerhouses of the world even though they're in a recession...

 

[Deltaberry]

That's right - same ole, same ole........and yet we are expected to believe that it will all be different from now on, or from 2012

Did you say the same thing when the bust happened in 1990?

 

[Deltaberry]

....and you are single-handedly attempting to change this?

Bear in mind, the vast majority of the population are no good at running their own business. 80% fail in the first 5 years and I think (??) of the remaining 20%, 80% of them fail in the next 5 years, so the odds are not good.

Well it's true there's no innovation in this country.

This is the 'lucky' coutry because it makes money by selling dirt. You ever see it pioneer the newest electric cars, the most succesful internet startup or software, the latest irobot that cleans your floor, the best construction techniques? Nope it doesn't even bother to process the dirt it digs up (which, if they did, would start another industry).

 

[The_Bludger]

You ever see it pioneer the newest electric cars, the most succesful internet startup or software, the latest irobot that cleans your floor, the best construction techniques?

We invented AFL. Look how successful that has become throughout the world.

 

[Deltaberry]

We invented AFL. Look how successful that has become throughout the world.

Haha do they Sydney people know what it is?

 

[Wunderbar]

I'm not trying to change anything. I'm just stating the facts.

Businesses make this country go forward - property speculation does not

 

[Propertunity]

I'm not trying to change anything. I'm just stating the facts.

Businesses make this country go forward - property speculation does not

Have you and Beebop been drinking at the same pub?

 

[Wunderbar]

I don't know him, he's some random. But if he thinks the same way as me then I commend him.

 

[Propertunity]

Did you say the same thing when the bust happened in 1990?

Yes I did as it happens.

1990 had lots of long flat periods for RE......but it did not seem to worry people much. It just meant you could not move forward with equity growth as a form of deposit. From memory most of the country was participating in something which Keating called "the recession we had to have"

I was out spending as I recall, trying to do my bit for the economy.

 

[mary&mat]

Wunderbar:

Why the defeatest attitude?

Do you have any properties? Are you looking to invest? With all due respect, why are you here?

 

[Wunderbar]

So I must conform and say exactly the same thing as the majority here in order to post? That's just a little bit one-dimensional isn't it?

For the record I do have properties, but what they are, where they are, and what they're worth is none of your concern.

 

[mary&mat]

So I must conform and say exactly the same thing as the majority here in order to post? That's just a little bit one-dimensional isn't it?

For the record I do have properties, but what they are, where they are, and what they're worth is none of your concern.

Hee hee, no, conformity is bland, I'd much rather lively, respectful debate

I don't want to know your property assets, I have my own

It just struck me as strange that you said you'd be sinking your money into other endeavours over property. That's why I asked the question...friends again?

 

[sports fan]

wunderboy i dont thnk you know what your talking about

australia would have to be one of the easiest countries to start up a business and go out on your own, maybe its different in the industry you specifically work in (or the rock you live under)

i agree that salaries and wages are much better than our neighbours e.g. nz, pac islands and majority of se asia.. but the opportunity to get into business for yourself and make good money is very realistic in this country you just need the motivation and smarts to make something of yourself

we didnt win the war by having a winge

 

[Wunderbar]

I'm not saying business is hard to start here. All I am saying is that property is seen as the easy way to invest, thereby discouraging people to take the riskier venture of business.

In reply to mary&mat, the reason why I would sink my funds into other assets other than property is because property where I live is definitely difficult to justify on numbers. Esp given the macroeconomic outlook for this state/country, I would rather put my money elsewhere.

 

[Ausprop]

we didnt win the war by having a winge

which war... you believed George Bush? And I'm still losing the batle of the flab