Avoid buying WOW & WES

jingo said:
I like this, xactly. Do you mind sharing which Index funds you are using?
Click to expand...

not at all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_exchange-traded_funds

http://www.asx.com.au/products/etf/managed-funds-etp-product-list.htm#ETF

my favourite one is VAS - top 300 so mid and small caps factored in
some SPDRs

also some LICS, inc ARG and AFI.

for the US stuff
bought the US stuff when the dollar was high 90s
I knew I should have set up a US account at parity but kept putting it off, the start of the slide last year made me get a wriggle on. Im done now


ETF -VAS on the ASX
VOO on the S&P,
LIC- BRK-B

I used to buy random stuff and went nowhere.
YOu can't chase the alpha. its like the end of the rainbow.
Discipline, patience and realising i am not a financial guru just an average joe who can't see into the future has made me a boring safe investor, with results over the long term, plodding over the short term.

I admire IV but I don't have the time or the expertise for that approach.

The stock punts are the companies that I gamble on.
i think I'm doing the research but in reality there are so many variables you might as well flip a coin.
The ride is exciting but it reminds me why I don't have the temperament for trading.
Its fun though.
current punt: netflix and some medical startups
 
pinkboy said:
I think this 'advice' is quite specific and should not be relied on. I know you note 'BUYER BEWARE', but I think you should rethink this thread. Even the slightest things can turn ugly.

There is no real 'point' anyway.


pinkboy
Click to expand...

of course it shouldn't be relied upon.
Its your money and your decision.

Anyone who blindly followings some poster on an internet site has only themselves to blame if it blows up.

This is not some social equity 'do-gooders' thread.

Number one rule in capital/wealth management is that YOU are responsible for your own money/wealth.

Its YOUR responsibility to make it grow, nobody else.

Money/wealth is not good nor evil.

In the right hands it will prosper/grow and do good, in the wrong hands the converse will happen.

Money/wealth only exists at a particular point in time, it is just a facilitator. In itself it cant do anything. The key determined variable is the facilitator.

The secondary issue is 'what is good'? This is a socially moralised issue?
but is social moralisation and actual good the same thing???????

Now I am sure beanie girl will have plenty to say about this level of the topic.
 
xactly said:
40% australian indexes
40% US index
15% emerging markets ETF
5% stock punts.


No fuss
no foresight required
meeting the market is outperformance of the active investor market.
Click to expand...

quite good for a lazy trading position.
You should present it to some of those provide equity players charging 2 and 20.

(just to be clear, no sarcasm, lazy means easy to establish).

I have to try to be very clear.

I have autistic characteristics which can create a lot of confusion when I communicate.
 
xactly said:
Hi IV
Does avoid mean, no more additions or are you selling out?
Click to expand...

never held WOW,
Bought a lot of WES during the GFC sold the lot around $30. (yes too early based on current market prices, but made huge return, so I wanted to crystalise that return given my understanding of IV at that time, which as increased over the additional year or two since)

but just for you I have done a very two minute overview of this stock and still not interested.

WES has a current PE of 20.
It has a book value of $28, it has a NTA of only $6, it has a ROE less than 10% on book value (but with low debt which is good, because debt is the hidden multiplier of ROE).
Return on capital has been more consistent which is good, but still low at only 8%.

Basically they paid far too much for coles and have been paying the price ever since.

Yes bunnings is good.

But I cant buy bunnings only WES.

And WES figures don't stack up from a conservative vew point (unless you expect Australia to do very very very well over the next few years).

So sorry no WES for me.:(
 
Thanks IV,
I take lazy as a compliment!

and yes its easy to establish.
a plain vanilla approach means i don't trip up.
As i said prior, Ive seen too many people get greedy, euphoric and disaster strikes.

or have a non focused approach (used to be me) and spin their wheels trying to predict the next big thing and get on too late.

saw the mining boom sliding and the dollar threatening to drop.
figured that Half of each index (where I live and the biggest capitalist market in the world) would be safe.

emerging markets is because the main goal of humans is to become middle class and not starve. i.e. become like us and the US.

I enjoy your posts. Thanks for the WES analysis
cheers
Xactly
 
xactly said:
Hi IV
Does avoid mean, no more additions or are you selling out?
Click to expand...

It means in as simple English as I can state,
I have no exposure, I am not interested in buying, and I wont be interested in buying until the prices are much much lower than current market prices.

If I am wrong, do I care: no.
I just missed a market pricing opportunity.

I care more about my capital than about opportunities.

I only deploy my valuable capital (and its very valuable to me, I made it, its mine, and I don't want to loose it), when I think its got a very good chance of making more capital.

And I don't see that for WES nor WOW.
So I will avoid.


I couldn't care a hoot what others think.
Its not their money its mine.

I am the custodian of my wealth.

Its my job to think how I wish it to be deployed.

Its not other peoples business to think how my wealth should be deployed by THEIR criteria


Now this post is not directed at you specifically.

There is something wrong going on in the programing of human beings, where they need others 'endorsements' of their financial actions. And where do they get that endorsement, but from other humans. But how does another human really understand your personal situation.


I laugh because in the back of my mind, it look like for the unwary, its the social attitude that dictates your wealth allocation decision.

Since when does 'social' abovate for my responsibility as a holder a capital.
 
xactly said:
not at all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_exchange-traded_funds

http://www.asx.com.au/products/etf/managed-funds-etp-product-list.htm#ETF

my favourite one is VAS - top 300 so mid and small caps factored in
some SPDRs

also some LICS, inc ARG and AFI.

for the US stuff
bought the US stuff when the dollar was high 90s
I knew I should have set up a US account at parity but kept putting it off, the start of the slide last year made me get a wriggle on. Im done now


ETF -VAS on the ASX
VOO on the S&P,
LIC- BRK-B

I used to buy random stuff and went nowhere.
YOu can't chase the alpha. its like the end of the rainbow.
Discipline, patience and realising i am not a financial guru just an average joe who can't see into the future has made me a boring safe investor, with results over the long term, plodding over the short term.

I admire IV but I don't have the time or the expertise for that approach.

The stock punts are the companies that I gamble on.
i think I'm doing the research but in reality there are so many variables you might as well flip a coin.
The ride is exciting but it reminds me why I don't have the temperament for trading.
Its fun though.
current punt: netflix and some medical startups
Click to expand...

Thanks xactly,

That is very comprehensive. I've started buying into Index Funds (ETF's) as well, and soon will start a SMSF using Index Funds.

For me, I think this is the best way to go. I'm certainly no trader and will just accumulate via index funds steadily. (Dollar Cost Averaging).

Regards Jason.
 
Thank you IV for your comments, I respect your valued input.
I was reading somewhere else last week about Aldi increasing its Oz market share and how it is affecting Woollies and Coles.

I don't suppose we can set up a fund to buy Bunnings off them?
 
The joke here is that the if you look at the II / Montgomery thesis based on UK experience it talks of Aldi taking 25% share, while in UK Aldi and Lidl combined is 8% in 2014...Tesco has huge internal issues including accounting problems that WOW does not have. Then consider the "next country to in country scale" theory which is complete crap as Aldi is 80% in country supply already.

Applying the UK supermarket experience is as valid as applying the Uk real estate experice to AU forcasting and we aren't doing the latter are we ? :)
 
Intrinsic_Value said:
I care more about my capital than about opportunities.

I only deploy my valuable capital (and its very valuable to me, I made it, its mine, and I don't want to loose it), when I think its got a very good chance of making more capital.

…....my responsibility as a holder of capital.
Click to expand...


Warren Buffet would agree with you.

Rule #1
Don't lose money

Rule #2
See rule #1

For those wishing to buy bunnings, Why don't you take a punt on the big tin sheds they rent? BWP.


As i said, not my bag, Im a global index investor now.
Ive seen the light and recognised my limitations based on my results a while ago which did not match the index.
I have been selling down my individual holdings to divest into indexes and LICs on the upswings but each to their own.

Many ways to invest.
I enjoy examining the rationale behind others decisions (if they are generous enough to share them, cheers all SS posters) regardless of whether I would do it or not. I alway enjoy learning something new.

I will jump back into punting more aggressively on individual stocks when there is blood on the floor again (did well out of that) but there is too much interest and excitement in the rising tide of shares for me ATM.
 
xactly said:
Warren Buffet would agree with you.

Rule #1
Don't lose money

Rule #2
See rule #1
.
Click to expand...


Did Buffet ever really say that? I've no idea but if someone took it seriously they wouldn't invest in anything as all investing requires some risk of losing money. Buffet himself has been known to hold onto losing positions for a long time. Generally they ended up successful investments but surely they were losing investments at some stage?

I think it's a silly saying really.


See ya's.
 
topcropper said:
Did Buffet ever really say that? I've no idea but if someone took it seriously they wouldn't invest in anything as all investing requires some risk of losing money. Buffet himself has been known to hold onto losing positions for a long time. Generally they ended up successful investments but surely they were losing investments at some stage?

I think it's a silly saying really.


See ya's.
Click to expand...

Just to back you up not that you need it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WkpQ4PpId4

There is certainly some crap written
 
Erko said:
The joke here is that the if you look at the II / Montgomery thesis based on UK experience it talks of Aldi taking 25% share, while in UK Aldi and Lidl combined is 8% in 2014...Tesco has huge internal issues including accounting problems that WOW does not have. Then consider the "next country to in country scale" theory which is complete crap as Aldi is 80% in country supply already.

Applying the UK supermarket experience is as valid as applying the Uk real estate experice to AU forcasting and we aren't doing the latter are we ? :)
Click to expand...

You would be right if the issue was just Tesco, but then what about J Sainsbury?

In regards to Aldi google how and why Aldi penetrates an overseas market. What conditions do they look for?

Then also compare coles/safeway retail margins against global competitors. They have just about the highest margins in the world.

Lastly you could be right, but even if you are right, the share price in my opinion is 'expensive' relative to you being right.
So for me where is the upside?
Risk on margins, and if that risk does not eventuate then both companies need to significantly increase profits to justify current share price.

So again sorry, but I am avoiding both of them.
 
topcropper said:
Did Buffet ever really say that? I've no idea but if someone took it seriously they wouldn't invest in anything as all investing requires some risk of losing money. Buffet himself has been known to hold onto losing positions for a long time. Generally they ended up successful investments but surely they were losing investments at some stage?

I think it's a silly saying really.


See ya's.
Click to expand...

Yes buffet said that.
 
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