Best ASX Stock of the past decade

oracle

oracle

If you had wished you had invested in one particular company 10yrs ago based on fundamentals. What would that company be?

I know a lot of investors here do not believe in long term buy and hold but I still have faith in long term buy and hold philosophy. So for the purpose of this exercise stocks you recommend you should be comfortable holding the stock for next 5-10yrs as well.

For me that stock would be Monadelphous Group (MND).

The total shareholder return for past 10yrs is 50.1%.

$10,000 invested in MND 10yrs ago with dividends re-invested would be worth around $570K.

Compounded annual growth for 10yrs
Earnings : 39.4%
Cashflow : 41.6%
Dividends : 48.4%

Truely, outstanding and it has achieved this with very minimal debt. Current debt/equity level is 22.6%.

Yes I hold this stock and would be comfortable holding it for next 5-10yrs.
--------------------------------------------------

I looked at Fortesque Metals (FMG) which has a better total shareholder return of 89% for the past 10 yrs.

The only problem is it has never paid any dividends and has a debt/equity ratio of 201%. Something I would be a bit concerned about.


So let us know your pick for the last decade (has to be a local company listed on ASX) which you still believe will be an outstanding investment in the next decade as well.


Cheers,
Oracle.
 
No Fundamentals, just momentum, rumours and trading gossip.

PIL, UCL, UCLOC, WSG, JBG, GBS,SLX when they were listed

Prob most of those were over a decade though so giving my age away....

The mid to late nineties were the best trading years in my opinion...

Penny stocks when I was daytrading brought me the most wealth and misery................oh those were the days!!

Blue chips are the go long term but its way more challenging playing the pennies....

Thanks heavens for stop losses.....
 
PS: One I like now for the next 12-24 mths is: NMS

NEPTUNE MARINE SERVICES LIMITED

Please take the time and research this one, look at their books and type of business they chase

Its a penny stock but cruising quite nicely for a small company.

Expansions on the horizon, capital raising currently happening.

The world is their oyster in the business they are involved in.

Trading price is almost right to buy and hold in my opinion as a safe spec...Will bounce soon and head back to .30 - 50 plus

Safe speckie buying at the right price and watching when volumes build from insider knowledge.

Insider trading??? Who said that, it doesnt happen on any asx stock!! When it moves you will see large chunks being purchased so I can only assume some brokers are upwind when quality announcements are being made..

Mark my words keep an eye on this little Aussie battler....

Do your own research, I don't offer trading advice, just a personal opinion.
 
Fortescue Metals FMG back in 2003 at $0.03 per share.

$10000 invested then, would be worth 2.3mil now. If only we could go back in time.:(
 
csc2 said:
PS: One I like now for the next 12-24 mths is: NMS

NEPTUNE MARINE SERVICES LIMITED

Please take the time and research this one, look at their books and type of business they chase

Its a penny stock but cruising quite nicely for a small company.

Expansions on the horizon, capital raising currently happening.

The world is their oyster in the business they are involved in.

Trading price is almost right to buy and hold in my opinion as a safe spec...Will bounce soon and head back to .30 - 50 plus

Safe speckie buying at the right price and watching when volumes build from insider knowledge.

Insider trading??? Who said that, it doesnt happen on any asx stock!! When it moves you will see large chunks being purchased so I can only assume some brokers are upwind when quality announcements are being made..

Mark my words keep an eye on this little Aussie battler....

Do your own research, I don't offer trading advice, just a personal opinion.
Click to expand...

shares not really my thing but I have some of these and taking a bath.

bought for .585c so could buy the entitlement at .50c which i did, went to 90c+ i think in a couple of weeks and then kaput!
 
CJProperty said:
PDN Vs. MND:

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...Line&cmpto=ASX:MND&cmptdms=0&q=ASX:PDN&ntsp=0

PDN wins by a long shot.
Click to expand...

Does that chart include re-invested dividends when comparing total shareholder return??

10yr compounded growth.........PDN vs MND
Earnings: -25% vs 39.4%
Cashflow: -54.6% vs 41.6%
Dividends: 0% vs 48.4%
Debt/equity ratio: 82% vs 22%

PDN since 2001 has had only 2 years in which it had a positive earnings per share (made any profit) of 0.1cent in 2004 and 15cents in 2009. On the other hand MND has had record earnings each and every year. Each and every year dividends have been raised. Yes, even during GFC, MND made record profit and increased it's dividends.

Shares outstanding for MND in 2001 74million and 2010 86million. Hardly much dilution. PDN on the other hand had 151million outstanding shares in 2001 and 717million in 2010. Unless there was a stock split its a massive dilution.

Not sure how you define quality fundamentally strong companies. But PDN is definitely not how I define such companies. It might have made you more money, but at what risk?

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
10 years too long. But if it's a year I would've picked MCE.

I don't know if resources can be called strong fundamentals - all driven off speculative commodity prices, just like houses.
 
Oh I agree Oracle. From what I've gathered from your research style it is comparable to mine. I was merely providing a simplified example of capital growth between the two.

You might be interested to know however that PDN still outperforms in total shareholder return by averaging 61.9% pa.
 
CJProperty said:
Oh I agree Oracle. From what I've gathered from your research style it is comparable to mine. I was merely providing a simplified example of capital growth between the two.

You might be interested to know however that PDN still outperforms in total shareholder return by averaging 61.9% pa.
Click to expand...

Yes, I am aware of it. I think a lot of internet stocks had 1000% shareholder returns for some time but had no earnings to back up the high share prices.

Looking at the history it's always companies with earnings/cashflow growth with moderate or no debt survive and prosper in the long run. Unfortunately, PDN only has share price growth going for it. It's in negative territory with earnings and cashflow and has a high debt, only time will tell if it can produce outstanding shareholder return in the next 5-10 yrs.

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
My favourite penny stock is PYC currently at 7.3 cents.

Biomed stock that leases its technology out to big Pharma companies. Huge blue sky if they get it right. Downside is they burn through alot of cash.

pretty much zero earnings, but good growth prospects.

Essentially they have 3 big deals under way.

Roche - Announced Jan 2009, upfront payment ~$1.0 Million, Milestone payment $XX,000,000 circa July 2011 + royalties on any successful drugs developed as a result.

MedImmune - Announced Aug 2010, upfront payment ~$1.5 Million, Milestone payment $98,000,000 circa Aug 2011 + royalties on any successful drugs developed as a result.

Pfizer - announced Dec 2010, upfront payment ~$0.5 Million, Milestone payment $134,000,000 + royalties on any successful drugs developed as a result.

Essentially if PYC can successfully get a Milestone payment out of one of these 3 companies it will put a rocket under the share price.

Doing the maths (correct me if I'm wrong), if, in the next 12 months MedImmune makes the payment of $98,000,000 to PYC, based purely on cash value, PYC would be valued at 35 cents (98m / 283m shares) or approximately 5x its value. However at those levels if would be a potential takeover target with a Value of $200 - $400 m or 10x ($0.70) � 20x ($1.40) its current share price.

they also have other deals in the works. one for the bottom draw, but on a small outlay the reward can be huge.
 
How about Cochlear (COH).....pretty stellar performance and still going strong...safe as houses eh Delta...!!:D

Go back to Jan 1996 when she was only $2.80...today around $80...
 
Thorpey said:
How about Cochlear (COH).....pretty stellar performance and still going strong...safe as houses eh Delta...!!:D

Go back to Jan 1996 when she was only $2.80...today around $80...
Click to expand...

Good stock but has always been expensive to buy. Currently, trading at 27 times earnings.

Growth rates impressive but not as good as MND.

10 year compounded growth rates:

Earnings: 18.4%
Cashflow: 26.5%
Dividends: 19.2%

Total shareholder return 10yrs: 11.3%

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
Bigtone said:
shares not really my thing but I have some of these and taking a bath.

bought for .585c so could buy the entitlement at .50c which i did, went to 90c+ i think in a couple of weeks and then kaput!
Click to expand...

lol....its a trading stock not a blue chipper! :)

runs on momentum of volume.

so buy low: ie around now, onsell into a rising market and offload and rebuy again....

its not one id hold and watch it go up and down.

if you cant pick up 100% as a bare minimum at today price within 12 mths ill give the game away.

have traded it 11 times over the past 12 mths, one small trading loss out of 11 isnt bad going but you need to have stop losses in and be prepared to be ready for a sell.....

key isnt to be greedy, always leave a bit for someone else and be happy that you had a win.....

if i was you id be trying to average down and buy more at its current level or close to it if it slides just a little more then hold.

never fall in love with any stock...everything is always for sale as soon as i start to see red on my screen with pennies..green is my favourite colour on the screen but alas nothing really excites me lately with pennies
 
oracle said:
Good stock but has always been expensive to buy. Currently, trading at 27 times earnings.

Growth rates impressive but not as good as MND.

10 year compounded growth rates:

Earnings: 18.4%
Cashflow: 26.5%
Dividends: 19.2%

Total shareholder return 10yrs: 11.3%

Cheers,
Oracle.
Click to expand...

Not sure how you calculate....I just went to the chart and saw it at $34.65 in Feb 2001 and today it's around the $80 mark...so it's more than doubled and it's returned $10.78 in divs since beginning of 2001. Divs alone have returned 31% since 2001 (without compounding) let alone the cap gains....unless I'm doing something wrong...?
 
Thorpey said:
Not sure how you calculate....I just went to the chart and saw it at $34.65 in Feb 2001 and today it's around the $80 mark...so it's more than doubled and it's returned $10.78 in divs since beginning of 2001. Divs alone have returned 31% since 2001 (without compounding) let alone the cap gains....unless I'm doing something wrong...?
Click to expand...

The total return figure I quoted was from eTrade. I had a look at the chart as well and can see the price might have peaked around $50 in 2001. Not sure how eTrade calculates total shareholder return. So anyone who bought it at $50 might have just doubled their money now (incl. dividends).

Point is a great stock can return average returns if you buy at the wrong price (Expensive). So it pays to be patient and snap up good companies in a downturn when they are being sold for bargain prices.


Cheers,
Oracle.
 
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