you can tell the short sellers are back.
FMG @ $1.29 - BHP @ $20.96 - RIO @ $66ish.
these prices are ludicrous.
FMG @ $1.29 - BHP @ $20.96 - RIO @ $66ish.
these prices are ludicrous.
BHP-where to next?
- Thread starter vla
- Start date
The idea of being in cash is so you dont lose money, not so you make money. At this time forget about making money. Just stay in the game so you can make money later, thats how the wealthy prosper.
How could anyone think of making money in the current environment.
I have been saying for so long here to get out of the market and people keep buying. And some people have had some BIG losses.
As i have said previously, i think the much criticised term 'doom & gloomer' is redundant on the forum at the moment. Its not doom & gloom , its reality.
How could anyone think of making money in the current environment.
I have been saying for so long here to get out of the market and people keep buying. And some people have had some BIG losses.
As i have said previously, i think the much criticised term 'doom & gloomer' is redundant on the forum at the moment. Its not doom & gloom , its reality.
Sunfish, no more at risk then i was six months ago,only the $$$ numbers are a lot lower,i was holding over 30 top 50 blue chips up too one year ago,now i'm only holding 12,still in the banks and miners- tab -tts -tls rio- bhp -pag and a small punt bwn,still control several unencumbered properties so i'm still a long way off opening the tools boxes again and putting back on the old overalls and put the dogs in the back of the ute and switch the mobile on
24-7,but if my plan comes off and the three that i,m watching drop too the entry levels,then i will drop 750 k on the table and roll the dice..good luck Bill.......willair ...imho..A few people that i talk too think BHP will go down too 15 bucks,must be hard for those that bought in at $46-$49 mark,and now it's about to go down to those low levels,nothing is safe anymore,miners-banks,just look at the price of RIO,from the highs of $150.00of one year ago down too $66
willair..IMHO..
because commodity based stocks are cyclical stocks, once the cycle changes it can be a number of years until the next upswing in the cycle.
Everytime the is a massive cyclical upturn in anything, people buy into the story and believe that this time its different, the better and more believable the story, the more people plow into it and the better the cycle will be.
If you look at the first stages of the dot.com bust, people were still buying madly into the initial stages of the downturn, believing its just a short term drop, and they still believed in the story.
Unless a company has something that is truely unique, with incredible barriers to entry, companies earnings should gravatate around a long term earnings trend. If you really want to invest in cyclicals then look at say the last 10-15yrs of earnings and extrapolate an average earnings, then base your valuation model on that.
To be extrapolating just from the last two or three years and then assuming that this trend will continue is very dangerous.
I take it your "lifetime" has been relatively short lol.
For some of us this is just the same ole story.
Just like an old movie re-run.
Sure we may not remember all the lines exactly, and some may have been edited, but the main theme & sequence of events is the same.
As for BHP, I dont think I'd be buying right now, and if I was i would be slowly scaling in.
I see no rush atm to go "all in".
so, pb, in your view what happens now? ... from one who had no interest in, so didn't observe, the late 80's, late 90's drops.
i just want a view from someone other than those d&g bears hanging around.
Hi all, I've been reading the posts that I never noticed before & very interesting rewind.
Is BHP really at 4x PE?
I thought $24 was a good buy, now looks like goodbye.
Fortunately, I hadn't started. Hope the bulls don't appear next week.
I'll be laughing if I can get BHP @ $20 but then if it drops to $10, I'll eat humble pie.
Interestngly enough, the ones I looked at went upinstead of down.
Keep up the discussions, debates etc. Doesn't really matter if one were right or wrong, except to ourselves surely. We have to take a stand at some point.
Thanks for some good info.
KY
Is BHP really at 4x PE?
I thought $24 was a good buy, now looks like goodbye.
Fortunately, I hadn't started. Hope the bulls don't appear next week.
I'll be laughing if I can get BHP @ $20 but then if it drops to $10, I'll eat humble pie.
Interestngly enough, the ones I looked at went upinstead of down.
Keep up the discussions, debates etc. Doesn't really matter if one were right or wrong, except to ourselves surely. We have to take a stand at some point.
Thanks for some good info.
KY
5 to 6 I get it at.
It will have a tiny pe at it's next profit reporting, as BHPs next profit will include it's massive coal and iron ore deals that were done at the top of the market, plus all the oil, gas, metals at top prices.
After that the profit will probably plunge though.
Remember that a lot of commodities are now at below the cost of production. Even grain. In a recession, demand doesn't stop, it just slows. I think a lot of commodity prices have got to ridiculous levels.
Grain is an example of how silly everything is getting. If people want to eat next year, they will have to pay farmers enough money for them to make a profit, or else they won't have enough to eat. Same with any commodity. Everyone is in a standoff. The buyers and the sellers. What commodity prices end up at, who knows?
See ya's.
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Yes TC , I agree , everything seems to be getting silly . Who knows ....
What do you think will happen with soft commodities in the short to medium term ?
Seriously, it seems that anything is possible . I read in the fin review today about comm property to be the next asset class likely to take a big hit , and I suppose it figures .
Also read about poor Andrew Forest now down to his last billion ....
What do you think will happen with soft commodities in the short to medium term ?
Seriously, it seems that anything is possible . I read in the fin review today about comm property to be the next asset class likely to take a big hit , and I suppose it figures .
Also read about poor Andrew Forest now down to his last billion ....
Hey Andrew Forst should still be a happy chappy what was his net worth 4yrs ago, i bet it was much less than a billion.
Hey Lizzie, for some people round here I'm also a doom & gloomer lol.
Even though I think I'm very optimistic, and I do have more than most people here in various investments mainly RE.
So here is my take on it.
A market is a market is a market.
A market is made up of it's participants, who are people.
As we all know there is a 10% and 90%. Generally the 90% end up losing.
We also know that generally people act in histerical knee jerk fashion (tulips anyone?).
That they believe marketing adverts, newspapers, infomercials and economists, and shock horror.....even politicians.
My long term charts tell me neither RE, Share Indexes or interest rates go in only one direction forever.
They also tell me that all those times when the US economy crashes, so does the rest of the world.
My old newspapers tell me that when the US crashes, RBA officials, economists, bankers & politicians(with one exception) will trip over themselves to tell us "this time is different", "Australia is isolated" blah blah.
My old charts tell me Australia got hit harder & longer than most others almost every time.
And of course the world is much more "globalized" than it's ever been.
So where to now?
As pointed out, BHP's income is likely to decrease signficantly.
Of course there is always a market & need for it's products, but at what cost & profit?
For how long will the world recession last? How much lower will BHP revenue/profits go?
Will supply > demand? What would happen if inventory starts piling up in warehouses?
What happens if desperate overseas producers in worse shape decide to sell inventories for whatever price they can get?
The only thing BHP has going for it atm is the USD buys much more AUD than a few mths ago.
But what if the AUD dollar rises again?
So why would anybody buy BHP when the bad news justs keep pouring in?
Those who thought it was cheap at 40, 35, 30, 25 are now in pain. Will they liquidate or get margin called?
Do we really know the answers? I don't.
So all I can do is watch and see what happens.
The trend is down sharply imo, so for me there's no reason to buy atm.
ftr I do not own any BHP shares.
Even though I think I'm very optimistic, and I do have more than most people here in various investments mainly RE.
So here is my take on it.
A market is a market is a market.
A market is made up of it's participants, who are people.
As we all know there is a 10% and 90%. Generally the 90% end up losing.
We also know that generally people act in histerical knee jerk fashion (tulips anyone?).
That they believe marketing adverts, newspapers, infomercials and economists, and shock horror.....even politicians.
My long term charts tell me neither RE, Share Indexes or interest rates go in only one direction forever.
They also tell me that all those times when the US economy crashes, so does the rest of the world.
My old newspapers tell me that when the US crashes, RBA officials, economists, bankers & politicians(with one exception) will trip over themselves to tell us "this time is different", "Australia is isolated" blah blah.
My old charts tell me Australia got hit harder & longer than most others almost every time.
And of course the world is much more "globalized" than it's ever been.
So where to now?
As pointed out, BHP's income is likely to decrease signficantly.
Of course there is always a market & need for it's products, but at what cost & profit?
For how long will the world recession last? How much lower will BHP revenue/profits go?
Will supply > demand? What would happen if inventory starts piling up in warehouses?
What happens if desperate overseas producers in worse shape decide to sell inventories for whatever price they can get?
The only thing BHP has going for it atm is the USD buys much more AUD than a few mths ago.
But what if the AUD dollar rises again?
So why would anybody buy BHP when the bad news justs keep pouring in?
Those who thought it was cheap at 40, 35, 30, 25 are now in pain. Will they liquidate or get margin called?
Do we really know the answers? I don't.
So all I can do is watch and see what happens.
The trend is down sharply imo, so for me there's no reason to buy atm.
ftr I do not own any BHP shares.
Makes me glad I didnt listen to the aquaintance who phoned my partner last Monday night & asked them to tell me to buy BHP shares @25.10 if I wanted to make some quick $ becuase they 'knew' they would be back up around $31 by Friday close.
Apparently they spent $50k - I wouldnt have been spending anywhere near that but DD kicked in & guess who still has all of their money?
Interesting thing for me is this acquaintance is also a mb who drives everyone crazy talking about how much $ they have made themselves & others recently - dont quite know how though taking gambles like that?
Cheers
Stella
Apparently they spent $50k - I wouldnt have been spending anywhere near that but DD kicked in & guess who still has all of their money?
Interesting thing for me is this acquaintance is also a mb who drives everyone crazy talking about how much $ they have made themselves & others recently - dont quite know how though taking gambles like that?
Cheers
Stella
I'd heard a rumour that BHP and RIO were finding it hard to sell the ore as a lot of shipments are credit financed and credit is currently tight?
Ships are waiting, waiting, waiting
That's not a rumour, it's fact. Shipping has become a disaster area because international trade can't happen without "letters of credit". Banks aren't issuing them, well not as many as needed.
I used to think that BHP management were very good, until the offer for Rio Tinto.
If Rio Tinto had accepted, BHP would be (if not) close to bankruptcy now.
That pretty tells me they cant see past their nose, nor the next bonus check.
If Rio Tinto had accepted, BHP would be (if not) close to bankruptcy now.
That pretty tells me they cant see past their nose, nor the next bonus check.
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