BHP-where to next?

[plusnq]

Hi TC

Still don't believe in the PPT?



Cheers

Shane

 

[Sunfish]

Hi TC

Still don't believe in the PPT?



Cheers

Shane

Am I missing something? I see no connection between the PPT and placing orders.

For what it's worth, TC's logic is faultless although I usually try to shave a few cents. But it really does piss you off to miss a good trade because you're as tight as a fish's bum or, conversely, have to sell 20c lower next day. Have been guilty of both but I have gone to some lengths to explain just how important the psychology of trading is, while admitting personal flaws.

 

[topcropper]

Hi TC

Still don't believe in the PPT?

Shane

Nah, I don't. I'm a real anti conspiracy type of bloke. I just don't see the point of moving a market by spending billions of dollars, just for a day. Then holding it there the next by spending more billions. I just think most western governments would also realise how stupid it would be.

It's just how I am.

See ya's.

 

[Sunfish]

The PPT, if it existed, wouldn't deal on the floor of the NYSE buying equities. That would indeed be an expensive exercise.

Logic would dictate that they buy futures, after Europe has closed. This needs far less dollars, ergo more bang for the buck, and they don't actually take possession of anything.

Not convinced? Why would central banks worldwide be selling gold while it is a fast appreciating asset? The Bank of England flogged tons at the very bottom of the market after notifying the market of their intention to do so. On simple math this has cost the Pom treasury many billions of pounds. Had they and other banks not done so, thier gold reserves would be even more valuable than they are now. And please, someone, explain why these central banks lend out the metal to short sellers @ 0.1% interest so that they can destroy the value of their own gold? No one with a commerce background would consider it. Central banks with a barrow to push would.

The odd billion matters nothing to the central banks. Gates and Buffett are pawns compared to the old money families who own the Fed Bank and who use it to, literally, print their own money.

Strategically placed darts can kill less obviously than a shotgun, but as effectively.

 

[plusnq]

Am I missing something? I see no connection between the PPT and placing orders.

Missing in action. It has nothing to with the last post but a long previous post that TC made about the PPT or lack thereof. There has been obvious Federal and other Central Bank intervention in the markets. TC is happy to believe they don't do it but misses the point that the FX markets are much deeper than the equities markets and that central banks are in there regularly ( the RBA posts how much they made each year with their "interventions"). Anyone remember Soros and the GBP? I thought I would wait until the intervention was obvious before mentioning it again.

The gold market is much smaller yet again and much more easily manipulated as you say. How many billions have been placed into the market in the last two weeks? What is the quality of the assets that the Fed Reserve is accepting for the money it is placing into the market via the discount rate market (hint CDO's)?

You can only trade what your beliefs are

Cheers

Shane

 

[Brenda Irwin]

Hi TC

Still don't believe in the PPT?



Cheers

Shane

OK, I'll bite; apart from PPT Perpetual, what else does PPT stand for and what does it mean?

 

[TheCamel]

i just saw something on the news about bhp, caught the tail end of the article, about chip (The current ceo, right ?) and somedude klopper taking over from him ?

Change in CEO ?

Any ideas as to what this may do to bhp values ?

 

[Sunfish]

OK, I'll bite; apart from PPT Perpetual, what else does PPT stand for and what does it mean?

Plunge Protection Team. It was set up by the President after the '87 crash to "smooth out" market gyrations. That it exists is beyond doubt. What it does is unknowable. Conspiracy theorists claim they are more active than ever, trying to protect bad business practice from it's just deserts. Others just say it is a "conspiracy theory".

 

[natmarie73]

Well back on topic...

I'm happy I managed to get some more BHP and some RIO cheaply a few days ago - both up nicely today...

I personally would like to see another little "plunge" so I can grab more specials - Mr Market seems to be running away again.

 

[Welcome]

If you like conspiracy theories...... check out http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/

If 1% of what is said in that is true.... scary world we live in.

 

[Ausprop]

I want more of this stock, wish I had bought at $32 ! at $40 the buyers from a couple of weeks ago have done quite nicely

 

[gooram]

Do you think todays deal with Russia for uranium supply will further boost the BHP share price?

Who else stands to gain from this deal?

I'm also waiting to get some more BHP, hoping for another dip before november, but it may never come... wait and hope or get on board now while you can???

 

[GreatPig]

BHP approaching its previous all-time high. Interesting to see if it bounces back or continues through.

There were rumours of BHP and another company putting in a takeover bid for Rio Tinto the other day, and Rio's shares were up 3.4% yesterday and currently another 2% today, but this article dismisses that.

Cheers,
GP

 

[redwing]

US stocks surge on rate cut

wow..2.51% Jump in the DJIA today on the back of the rate cut, be interesting to see how the day pans out, the aussie $ is up above .85 as well

US stocks surge on rate cut


THE US share market jumped the most in four years overnight after the US central bank slashed interest rates to stem a housing slump and credit-market turmoil

 

[willair]

wow..2.51% Jump in the DJIA today on the back of the rate cut, be interesting to see how the day pans out, the aussie $ is up above .85 as well

Yes it will be a good day,another window of opportunity for those that
bought in a few weeks back..imho willair..

 

[TheCamel]

This makes me feel good about the performance of BHP over the next few days.... now to convince Rhiannon I should buy some more...
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=331214#post331214

 

[GreatPig]

Remember though, if it's already been announced, then it's already priced in.

Cheers,
GP

 

[Sunfish]

Remember though, if it's already been announced, then it's already priced in.

Cheers,
GP

My screen does not show an announcement. So it is still conjecture.

In all probability Olympic Dam will develop into the most valuable metals province in the world and by a large margin. Officially BHP are talking a few $B to develop. Pencil in $5B. But they will get that money back in spades. (card talk for the youngsters here. )

I was suggesting (I try never to recommend. ) BHP was a good buy in the low $30's (an on occasions since) but if you missed that don't sweat.

Have you all stopped buying RE because you missed the bargains last year?

I am constantly amazed that posters here seem to have two sets of guidelines: One for RE where you buy long term and "Damn The Torpedoes" and another for shares where daily fluctuations cannot be tolerated. Another disconnect is that you will leverage RE to the absolute (Hey! Property always goes up!) max but say options are "risky". This, in spite of the fact that the value of most traded commodities has skyrocketed at a rate that would spin the heads of most RE investors.

For four years now I have been saying "Get with the strength" but it still isn't too late.

As usual, I am not recommending BHP, it would be illegal for me to do so. I reflect on it's value and expect you to do your own research.

 

[redwing]

RBA, resources push shares

Still haven't got on board BHP yet Sunfish, but its tempting

Best performer so far is CUO and I was surprised with the ASX (the stock) yesterday which closed at new high

IT has taken exactly two months for investors to cast aside fears over the global credit crisis and drive Australia's stock market into record territory.

Fittingly, it was resources stocks that helped the share market beat its previous record set on July 24, three days before the start of the global rout that eventually wiped 12 per cent off the value of equities.

The recovery of equities, while credit conditions remain tight, has surprised analysts who described yesterday's 1.45 per cent gain as "amazing".

The S&P/ASX200 hit 6451.5, up 93.6 points, while the broader All Ordinaries outperformed the blue chip index as it closed at 6461.1, 89.9 points higher.

A relatively upbeat Reserve Bank reading on the stability of the financial sector and forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics that commodity values would rise by 4 per cent - despite drought and fears of a world economic slowdown - gave investors fresh momentum.

The ebullience was also driven by market suggestions that the bulk commodity price negotiations for the Japanese financial year in April would yield better than expected results.

The majority of analysts believe contract prices - particularly for iron ore - will be 25 per cent higher but there is now talk it could be at least 50 per cent.

Speculation that Olympic Dam's potential output could be upgraded helped BHP Billiton's star performance, which contributed most to the ASX200's rise.

It was a day of records with share prices of BHP (up 5.2 per cent), Rio Tinto (3.3 per cent higher), Fortescue Metals (plus 7.8 per cent) and Woodside Petroleum (a 2 per cent lift) at uncharted peaks.

Despite the market's recovery, Macquarie divisional director Lucinda Chan saw a cautious stance from many investors.

The release of key economic data from the US, where the sentiment is still positive after the Fed's action, is thought likely to dictate the direction of Australian trade.

The run of the market yesterday was judged as even more spectacular given that the price of gold and oil were softer.

"I think there is a little bit more excitment about positive news that is coming through. We had had nothing but negative news," Ms Chan said.

"There has been talk of a recession in the US. But the signs have been that central banks are prepared to help and that has made investors more positive about the numbers for the moment. It could be a case, though, of one day at a time, but investors' confidence is coming back and risk appetite has returned."

The Reserve Bank's stability review, which found that retail banks were coping with the credit market crunch, leant support to that sector yesterday.

The central bank also said it believed the Australian economy was still expanding at a "strong pace" despite the August rate rise and financial market volatility.

Ms Chan said considerable liquidity had been accrued by investors who had participated in the market's return to favour.

"Some people are still cautious and there are others who are very optimistic. There are people who are sitting on cash - they want to get set in a stock before they miss out. There is a lot of liquidity around."

The equities strength led to a clear "flight from quality" from the bond market, where yields rose by four basis points.

Grange Securities chief economist Stephen Roberts said that while the woes of the credit market had been partially turned around, spreads were still well off the pre-stock market rout levels.

The cost of funding for Australian corporate remains historically high, particularly as the bank-bill rate is almost 40 basis points above the cash rate.

"The credit problems are going to be difficult to work through," Mr Roberts said. "You have the credit markets and the equity markets looking at the world issue and going, 'who's right?' Then there is the situation of if the real economy has been little affected or the question of will the real economy come back and that will lead to some weak earnings outlooks."


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[Easton]

I bought OXR instead of BHP at the bottom of the recent correction (if we can call it over yet) and right now I kinda regret it