Bust and then what....????

Bust and Then What???

Dear Willair (and fellow members),

From your post, It seems to me that market timing is very important to you. It is for me too.

However , as I understand many long term investors and advocates of "Buy-and-hold" investment strategy would not want to factor market timing as their key factor for investment decision. Their investing motto being " the best time to buy is TODAY!"

I do agree with them to a certain extent. Thus, I compromise by searching out alternative markets which is still good for investment value, such as Cairns and Perth, while refraining from buying into the Goldcoast land/houses markets in today's peaking market conditions prevailing.

Well, I am still learning to walk my own basic "buy-and-hold" investment strategy into full action. Will the more experiencesd investors care to share their views and guide me further in this investing game, please.

Thank you very much

Regards,
Kenkoh2000
 
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Hi Kenkoh

Correct me if I am wrong :)

Arn't you restricted by the FIRB to buying new properties only?

Buying new gives little room for adding value.

A lot of us work on pre-loved property and increase value by renovation, a stratergy out of reach to you.

A part of your thinking should be where are the jobs for the renters, what services are available, transport and future CG.

Adelaides southern suburbs seem to be missing out on the services part......not sure of the other states.

Much better to learn how to fish than being given a single meal as charity.

bundy
 
Bust and Then What???

Dear Bundy1964,

1. You are right that I am presently restricted to purchasing only new properties in Australia under the FIRB Regulations. Thus, my potential IPS are more restrictive in nature.

2. While I do look for IPS with good amenities and rentability, I have learned that as far as future capitcal growth is concerned, the target IPs should preferably located in high owners-occupancy rate suburbs. Morever, such an IP will face less competition from other available rental porperties in the same suburb, then to get an IPs in a suburb which is highly investor-oriented.

3. Yes, you are definitely right to say that the option of adding value through renovation is definitely one strategy that is not available to me for the time being.... However, I just have to search harder to look for my target IPs to invest.

4. For your update,please.

5. Thank you.

Regards,
Kenkoh2000
 
Hi Kenkoh

I would agree with you on no. 2 even though my favourite suburbs in Adelaide are 51% and 36% owned by investors. I would suspect some of those to be PPOR owned by their trust.

My own suburb there is 54% of people renting. That number at one time would of been more like 80% pre redevelopment days.

bundy
 
Hi Bundy,

I have found this thread to be very interesting and educational.

I am wondering if you wouldn’t mind sharing your resources for obtaining statistics regarding property ownership (investor Vs Owner Occupier).

Thanks

JSD
 
"No offence to you LB
A doctor doesn't mean JACK
Do you know that some doctors don't even own any IP at all!!!"



You're kidding me arent you. could there really be doctors out there that don't own an IP. What are we going to do.That surely couldnt be possible.
Clearly doctors can't know too much about the property market.
LOL
LB
 
Re: Bust and Then What???

Originally posted by Kenkoh2000


4. Bernham is a doctor and is thus a professional.

No offence to Kenkoh (he is Singaporian and thus deserving of some forgiveness :)), honestly speaking such a statement almost got me dipping my pen in the inkpot of ridicule.

Let's face it being a doctor and thus being professional ( and therefore more capable of rational decisions than the great unwashed masses ) is a clearly a silly statement.

Jan Somers was a maths teacher...ohh dear, that's not a professional job is it? what could she know about property investing?

Kenkoh, for those who are not doctor's here is a tip: A professional is a state of mind! A professional is not defined by the job, but by the person. Do they take pride in there work? do they take a active interest in improving their skills? do they give back to the less experienced? Are they focused and do accept responsiblity for outcomes? This is what defines a professional person! All excellent people in their fields to a rule are professional. Professional is not the job, but the person!.

IMHO Anyone can be a professional, being a professional IP investor doesnt mean quiting the day job, it means commiting to developing the skills and attributes in the areas I mentioned above.


L.B. You write well and logically, if you can forget all knowledge of grammer and spelling, then you have the traits required by the most difficult of all "professions"; you could rise to work in IT as a systems manager. (actually logic is more a liability than an asset) ;)
 
Hi - again
I've actually been to a Doctor named Jack, and he didn't own an IP ?!?! Is that bad.?
I seem to be in a similar boat to a couple of others on this forum, and timing is that I have to spend a lot of time renoing a currently purchased, IP, but must admit that I am confused by the question re;
would you re-buy your IP's for current market price?
No, yes, and yes, but why the question. When purchased, they were a good deal, with opportunities.
If current market price is up, I'm in front.
If current market price is down, I hold.
If I am looking for another IP/opportunity, I may have to look somewhere else because good opportunities seldom stay in the same place. (Very mobile these opportunity thingies, and not house trained :D )
Yes I understand if I were an investor buying now etc would they be good value, but it seems that there are occassionally other people other than investors also buying property, and most of the time ( i believe) investors buy bargains, not necessarily other investors hand offs.

Bundy, thanks for the site.

jahn
 
Re: Re: Bust and Then What???

Originally posted by always_learning
Honestly speaking such a statement almost got me dipping my pen in the inkpot of ridicule.

Let's face it being a doctor and thus being professional ( and therefore more capable of rational decisions than the great unwashed masses ) is a clearly a silly statement.

Jan Somers was a maths teacher...ohh dear, that's not a professional job is it? what could she know about property investing?
**************************************************
Dear Always_Learning,

1. Thank you for being lenient and so forigiving of me.

2. I apologise if you or other members feel silly and take offence of my statement about "doctors being professionals". I guess we come from different backgrounds and have different social experiences... I do not actually mean the way which you are presently extraploating from my statement nor do I have such intentions.

3. In Singapore and in my part of the world, doctors are generally held in high esteem and are highly respected, both the medical doctors as well as those who hold a doctorate in their own respective specialised field of studies. They are deemed to be highly talented with quality minds and belonging to a very selected group of special top elites in our society. It does not mattter whether you or I agree/disagree to it. That has been my own social experiences in Singapore.

4. In Singapore, teachers are deemed as professionals too. Some of the top teachers in Singapore can earn more than S$10,000 a month and many of them have post-graduate qualifications and specialised training.

5. In Singapore, being a professional does not mean that one is highly successful in life or rich. It does not mean that one is good in investing in property as you seem to want to suggest to me, with respect to your statement about Jan Somers. In fact, some of our own top businessmen in Singapore actually do not have high education. Neither do highly successful people needs to have high education in order to succeed in life. That is also what I personally believe too.

6. I fully agree with you that being "professional" can always be an attitude of mind/personhood in wanting to excel and to be the very best in whatever one is doing, irrespective of one's academic achievements or vocations.

7. Nonetheless, I still sincerely believe in LB and his good intentions though I may not fullly agree with his views myself. I also admire his courage and convictions to speak out his heart and openly state his belief despite major oppositions and many criticisms he has received from some of our more highly experienced investing members in this forum.

8. Thank you.

Regards,
Kenkoh2000
 
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Let's look at 2 senarios

Assuming that you purchase a number of IPs now with the 5 yr fixed rate (6.2%)

Year 1 : 6.2% (HSBC Bank)
Year 2 : 6.2%
Year 3 : 6.2%
Year 4 : 6.2%
Year 5 : 6.2%

Avarage : 6.2%


Assuming that you purchase a number of IPs 2 years later and the variable rate increases.

Year 3 : 8.5%
Year 4 : 9.5%
Year 5 : 10.5%

Avarage : 9.5%
Therefore, you have to pay more on interest (9.5% - 6.2%) * 3 years = 9.9%

If your portfolio has 1 million loan amount, (assuming house prices do not change in next 5 years)
it will cost you 99 K more if you wait 2 more years.
If the house prices come down by 9.9% 2 years later, buying now and 2 years later will make no difference.
If the house prices increase in 5 years, you will save 99 K interest + whatever growth

What do people think about the property prices in next 5 years ?
(Up or Down or Same)
 
LB,

I just can't help myself laughing when

.........................................................................................................
jahn said

I've actually been to a Doctor named Jack, and he didn't own an IP ?!?! Is that bad.?
.........................................................................................................

I myself have known 3 doctors (2 specialist and a GP)
All 3 of them don't own any IP at ALL!!!
The GP just bought an IP this week in Mel OTP & the other 2 still say its too risky to enter the market!!!

Let me tell you all the 3 of them will be able to tell me a few hrs about property from the neg gear seminar that they have been to and stuff that's it and nothing else

LB there is still a lot of DOC that still do not own any IP you just got to talk to them about property and you know what i mean

Maybe the peer group that you're with do own property but have you ever move outside your square to ask someone else that doesn't belong to your peer group?

RB50 i agree with you on

If the house prices come down by 9.9% 2 years later, buying now and 2 years later will make no difference.
If the house prices increase in 5 years, you will save 99 K interest + whatever growth

but the problem is that a lot of people did not get it

They are waiting for the bust while in the mean time the property price goes up by 99K in 2 yrs
when it bust it drops 99K people will think that it is the right time to buy cos it drops 99K what a joke
Did you work out how much it will goes up the next year RB50?
If it were to drop 99k in the second yr
and rise 150K cos of demand on the market on the third yr

That would be what i called the BIG BUST
Every Tom Dick and Harry have long been waiting for it
for the last 3 years

Regards
Jerry
 
Re: Re: Re: Bust and Then What???

1. Thank you for being lenient and so forigiving of me.

Kenkoh....you are forgiven my son...go forth and be fruitful!

...you're are pulling my little guy right? :)


2. I apologise if you or other members feel silly and take offence of my statement about "doctors being professionals". I guess we come from different backgrounds and have different social experiences... I do not actually mean the way which you are presently extraploating from my statement nor do I have such intentions.
...silly is silly, offence is offence, very different concepts, I highly doubt anyone took offence. ( Real offensive posts should be removed anyone from the forum)

Living in Japan and visiting other Asia countries influenced by Chinese culture of education as the way to escape from a tedious life. I do understand the undercurrent that Education = Professional = Status. I was only allowed to work in Japan after some government agency assessed that I had education to the level of "A Masters of Engineering" and thus could obtain a "Engineering Work Visa" ...I wouldn't know a slide rule from a steam engine! :cool:

3. In Singapore and in my part of the world, doctors are generally held in high esteem and are highly respected, both the medical doctors as well as those who hold a doctorate in their own respective specialised field of studies. They are deemed to be highly talented with quality minds and belonging to a very selected group of special top elites in our society. It does not mattter whether you or I agree/disagree to it. That has been my own social experiences in Singapore.

Gosh my organization (German) has more PhD's than you can point a stick at (Masters grads with straight "A" seem to be minimum requirement to enter these days). My view is these guys seem to be people who have hung around university for 10 years and finally when they cannot continue any further (government stops the handouts)...at the age of 28,29,30 they get a job. Talent, elite, select group, not the words I would use to describe them. When I see a co-worker with a PhD and in particularly when he/she makes it known that they have a PhD "My Name is Dr Schmitt" (rather than keeping it quiet), I know I will be in for a waste of my time, impractical meeting. The best guy I know in the field working in Germany only finished High school.
Donft get me wrong, if I had a brain tumor I would want the best, brightest most dedicated professional doctor around.

4. In Singapore, teachers are deemed as professionals too. Some of the top teachers in Singapore can earn more than S$10,000 a month and many of them have post-graduate qualifications and specialised training.

I was being sarcastic in my response; a professional schoolteacher is in my opinion worth his/her weight in gold. Its pity that society doesnft pay, the pay scale seems only mildly above baby-sitting. One teacher told me she was offered a job paying more to be an assistant manager at pizza delivery shop! How could society pay more to someone to organize the delivery of Pizza's than the deliever skills,knowledge and a pasion for learning to my children? Just look at the number of male primary school teachers these days! There is no way I could raise my family if I wanted to be a primary school teacher! The job for society has been downgraded to "Womenfs" work good enough only to help support a family as a secondary income.

5. In Singapore, being a professional does not mean that one is highly successful in life or rich. It does not mean that one is good in investing in property as you seem to want to suggest to me, with respect to your statement about Jan Somers. In fact, some of our own top businessmen in Singapore actually do not have high education. Neither do highly successful people needs to have high education in order to succeed in life. That is also what I personally believe too.

Yes that's the point! Success and Professional has nothing to do with your job or your qualifications, but it has 100% do with you, you are your career because your career is you.

6. I fully agree with you that being "professional" can always be an attitude of mind/personhood in wanting to excel and to be the very best in whatever one is doing, irrespective of one's academic achievements or vocations.

Exactly.

7. Nonetheless, I still sincerely believe in LB and his good intentions though I may not fullly agree with his views myself. I also admire his courage and convictions to speak out his heart and openly state his belief despite major oppositions and many criticisms he has received from some of our more highly experienced investing members in this forum.

I admire the fact that he has backed his arguments with some real research and logic! I come to this forum not for opinions, but for alternative ideas and new viewpoint, new ways of thinking etc.

8. Thank you.

You donft need to say "thank you" every time you post.

Regards,
Kenkoh2000

...now I better get back to work before my Singaporian boss fires my arse!
 
After 193 replies, what harm could one more do.

1. Being a professional and acting professional are mutally exclusive.

2. I would actually argue that Maths teaching is a profession on the basis that you are certified to:

- be a teacher, and

- teach maths.

3. Conversely, while my occupation is typically classed as a "profession", I would argue otherwise.

I am, by training, an Economist and I have previously been employed as such by both the Commonwealth Treasury and the Productivity Commission.

MB
 
Might aswell make that 194 replies now....... :)

I've been told that I am NOT very professional , as I refuse to wear a tie !!

(ex-accountant, out of touch these days) :D
 
ABC D

I've heard that Gary Pemberton chairs meetings of the Billabong Board of Directors (on the Gold Coast) dressed in board shorts and thongs.

I don't know if it is true or not, but I like the thought.

MB :D
 
Don't get me started on ties !

Suffice to say that in our climate, I consider ties to be totally inappropriate - and the argument of working in air conditioned offices is a load of baloney unless you truely never leave your desk (not even to go home).

I do consider it deliciously ironic that I have worked for IBM for nearly 3 years now, and have not had a need to wear a suit once, I did don a shirt and tie once or twice for the sake of a pernickity customer, but I spend most of my days working in pyjamas (well, T-Shirt and tracksuit pants to be precise) - although this attire is not exactly encouraged in the office - for the telecommuter only. How things have changed at Big Blue !

mmm... just so I can't be accused of encouraging off topic posts... my 2c worth about the pending bust - anything can and will happen - be prepared, keep your goals in mind, remember what is truely important in your life, and be happy.
 
PS. this is the 200th post in this thread. We broke all the records ages ago, so this isn't terribly exciting. But Brenda still has the most viewed thread I think (happy now Brenda ? :D )
 
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