Buy Big
- Thread starter Somersault
- Start date
Agreed.but how do you know the time period of the "flat", your example states 7 but what if it is 1?
How do you determine when the "boom is on its way"?
You quoted the answer. I never said it had to. Just an interesting thought.
You don't know. However, the last two flats have lasted several years, so I'm thinking this would at least be a few (2-3+).
He wrote it in the block of text you quoted.
Dude, i concur,
or if not CF+ at least neutral so its not costing over the flat period; i too reckon we are due a flat period for a couple of years at least.
Please explain, me speaka da no Inglisa
Well in my opinion and I am no expert, thats really guessing!
I don't
.... but the balance of probabilities suggests to me that we're not going to have a boom in the next 6 months.Property is a v. slow moving target.... there'll be signs of property moving up a little before the majority realise & it gains momentum. Maybe sales volumes will show an increase along with increased prices for a couple of consecutive quarters.
And even before prices/volume do start to move, I'd expect there to be be non-property related signs of an improving willingness to pay more for property - consumer confidence will be above average, car sales will be increasing, lending will be stronger, CPI may be starting to rise, ASX will be less volatile & a fair bit higher than today, fixed rates may be a little higher, investor housing credit will be starting to rise, unemployment will be falling, business profits will be increasing, GDP will be increasing (we won't be in a recession). ATM few of the above indicators are pointing towards strong housing growth. IMO the growth in the bottom quartile is temporary & artificial and is both unlikely to be sustained, and also unlikely to spread to the rest of the market.
If I see a property with good numbers & the deal makes sense & the above indicators are mostly pointing to a strong economy and a consumer confident enough to spend their excess discretionary income on housing then I'll do it. Whether the property gets cheaper, or was previously cheaper isn't the issue, the issue is does the deal work for me today.
"but for the current scenario's figures to match the last pre-boom scenario that's what has to happen [to the figures]" not [to the market]
Also the common use is 'me no speaka da English'.
