Changing value expectations in Sydney

It's one of those times where my expectations of " Value " are changing .

It doesn't seem too long ago when some friends paid 600k for a house in Billiard Ave in Warrawee and we thought they'd over paid . ( ok it was over 20 years ago ... ) , but when you've had a long flat period and prices start changing it takes a while for people watching on a regular basis to get used to the fact that prices change and aren't coming back down. ( unless you live in Keen land ).

When we talk about affordability problems ,I 'm thinking that by daughter who has been only saving for a short period of time , is not on a large wage, is able to buy her first property in a good area of Sydney. Going back to a different era , when my sister bought her first property ( her husband was a doctor and she was a Vet ) they were only able to buy in Prospect. When we bought our first property , ( doctor and physio ) we were only able to buy a very run down property in Concord ( it had an outside toilet ....

Currently , the Sydney market is relatively affordable and you can buy older properties well below replacement value . We will get to the stage where older property is more expensive than replacement . This has happened with each cycle that I've seen.

Prior to getting involved in property investing I've normally watched this happen in retrospect , however in the last cycle I saw this happening while investing , in particular in Brisbane and Rockhampton. When we were buying there , the local agents thought all the buyers were silly and if we waited the market would settle down and we'd get better buys .

Yesterday we had a similar comment from an agent. Wait until spring and you'll get better buys . Maybe he's right , but I don't think so. Given the affordability ( with the current low rates ) I don't see anything stopping it any time soon.

Cliff
 
Billyard is one of the nicest streets in Wahroonga. When did they buy it for $600k? There is just no stock at all in the North Shore for sub $1mil (but that can be said for most places right now).
 
Where are you looking Cliff?

My son is saving too for his first property. He will have good capacity, but I would like him in the market this year, I can see it moving in Sydney now and would like him to lock in some gains with a purchase
 
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1. Timing the market is important. If you waited, things might settle and you might get better deals. 2011-2012 is a perfect example.

2. However, there's no guarantees. Sometimes prices run and they never come back. 2001 is a good example.

3. Even if you mistimed the market, history has proven you'll be okay over time. And irrespective of how much you overpay, over time you'll find your entry price cheap. As proven in 2013.

4. Talking about blue chip locations in major metropolitans (ie Sydney). Not sure about random speculative towns like Sunshine Coast, Cairns or fringe suburbs of Adelaide.

5. Anyone who disagrees is most likely investing in a different market to me (I only buy within 1km of CBDs normally or inside CBDs). Although I live within 10kms.
 
Billyard is one of the nicest streets in Wahroonga. When did they buy it for $600k? There is just no stock at all in the North Shore for sub $1mil (but that can be said for most places right now).

It was a while ago ? mid 90's

My dad paid 25 for a house in Davidson Ave in 1970.

Cliff
 
Where are you looking Cliff?

My son is saving too for his first property. He will have good capacity, but I would like him in the market this year, I can see it moving in Sydney now and would like him to lock in some gains with a purchase

We're looking in an area where there are very few properties on the market in the price range we're looking at. There's already quite a bit of competition including our daughter

Cliff
 
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