The 3 decade success story - Housing

You live in a fantasy world Keith.
That's the great thing about life, we all get to choose our own reality :D..... I choose optimism, investment, can-do attitude, encouragement of others, sharing of knowledge based on my & others experiences, support of the community..... it's not exclusive to me though - you can choose it too if you like ;)

There are opportunities, there always are but the challenges are getting bigger and more complex.
That's another great thing - more challenges - gotta love a challenge. Did you know that today China has more current phd students, than there has ever been ever in the whole of history - I reckon that's a fantastic cause for optimism :D

Anyway getting back on topic.....

For as long as property remains a prestige asset, the average household will put a large proportion of their disposable income into acquiring one. And as we innovate, we'll continue to have as increasing proportion of it.... which means only one thing :D

The only fly in the ointment that I can see is terrorism or threat of (terrorist) nuclear/biological attack causing the masses to want to be away from the major cities.
 
And to think this was the advice from thou to moi...!

Your oblique posts offer nothing but innuendo. Challenge your IQ and free to elaborate.


And then this:

You live in a fantasy world Keith. I have no problems with optimism but when it suppresses reality you end up in the twilight zone.

30 years ago they were saying we would be living on the moon, cancer cures were just around the corner, AID's would be cured within 5 years and infinite clean cheap energy was within our grasp.

Too many people watching the Jetsons and thinking that's where we'd be in a few decades.

There are opportunities, there always are but the challenges are getting bigger and more complex.

We're like a plague of locusts on this planet. At the current rate of destruction and pollution your future is looking more and more like some mad scifi movie.

Man you have issues.


Move forward to reality with this great advice:

All pointless debates to be honest. At the end of the day, the believers will keep investing, the doubters will keep avoiding. Recent history has proven the former won, the latter lost.

Will it continue to be the case? There are examples all over mainland Europe now of countries/generations of people who will spend at least 10 years - if not 20 years - in the wilderness with no jobs, no growth prospects, no rising asset prices. 25 years ago, Japan also entered the same wilderness and never recovered. On the opposite end, there are examples all around the world of economic and property markets crashing but powering back up and onwards in a short time such as USA, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, UK, Canada, Norway etc.

There are many structural shifts that carried Australia in the past 30 years. Most people picked them. Dual income families, immigration, globalisation, financial deregulation etc. Does that mean it's all over?

For me, we have yet to see what I believe will be the biggest paradigm shift for Australia in 200 years - and this is the Asian Century, something that a lot of people seem to forget. It's not just about immigration, which is a significant driver in and of itself. It's also about trade. The combined GDP of China, Korea, Indonesia, India and Japan will probably eclipse USA combined with Europe some time in our life time. How will Australia - being the only western country with rule of law, democracy blah blah blah in proximity and in the same timezone - position itself to benefit from this? How will it affect profitability, social well-being, salaries, employment rate? How does that impact house prices? This is arguably a phenomenon that is much more powerful than anything we have seen in the past 30 years, even more powerful than dual income families or financial deregulation.

Another interesting shift is downsizing. Can a 1000sqm inner city land in Sydney really justify $4m? Probably, if Australians of the next generation accept the fact that living in a 100sqm townhouse is the norm, you can think of the inner city house really as costing $400k ($4m divided by 10). People talk about Sydney being one of the most expensive cities in the world. I'd love to see how Sydney land in Mosman stacks up on a per sqm basis versus Paddington in London, TriBeCa in New York, Hiroo in Tokyo, Deep Water Bay in Hong Kong or JingAn in Shanghai.

At the end of the day, who cares. Some will believe and agree with me. Others will try to pick holes in what I say. We can all take pride in winning an argument on the internet, or take pride in making a difference to our real lives.


Yes thankyou Delta, for bringing reality to count against such hillarious and outrageous accusations against humanity.

Plague of locusts...????
LOL is all I can do. Sorry.
 
I am an optimist by nature and believe that the human race will continue to improve,expand its knowledge and wealth for the benefit of everyone and as the world becomes a smaller place through easy commuting predudices will be broken down resulting in world peace.

That said I did read somewhere that six out of seven dwarfs are not happy......
 
I am an optimist by nature and believe that the human race will continue to improve,expand its knowledge and wealth for the benefit of everyone and as the world becomes a smaller place through easy commuting predudices will be broken down resulting in world peace.

That said I did read somewhere that six out of seven dwarfs are not happy......

Ha haa, ripper!

I agree whole heartedly with your views Mush!
 
Hi Freckle.

What did you mean by out of the rat race?
Taking a break from work?
Or do you mean you've converted your investments to cash?

I always thought the rat race was the relentless spending on consumer goods, cars, expensive PPOR and the hard work and long commute that is needed to sustain your spending, not the investing or putting money away for retirement that happens here.

With your views, I'm curious what your investment strategy is - how will you bypass this apocalypse you see coming and still make enough to retire early?
 
I am an optimist by nature and believe that the human race will continue to improve,expand its knowledge and wealth for the benefit of everyone and as the world becomes a smaller place through easy commuting predudices will be broken down resulting in world peace.

That said I did read somewhere that six out of seven dwarfs are not happy......

not Happy, don't you mean? :p Take that humour, I'll take semantics and being a knob any day! :D
 
Yes thankyou Delta, for bringing reality to count against such hillarious and outrageous accusations against humanity.

Plague of locusts...????
LOL is all I can do. Sorry.

Still can't find your own words. Nice speech by Delta but full of holes.

Delta;

On the opposite end, there are examples all around the world of economic and property markets crashing but powering back up and onwards in a short time such as USA, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, UK, Canada, Norway etc.

Property...USA about to go tits up again, China crashing, HK topped out and falling back, Singa's haven't evaluated it but dependent on wider Asian fundamentals which are weakening, UK topped out and getting wobbly, Canada topped out and nearing a correction, Norway stalling.

The only thing that revived property markets was the all out printing to support economies while they figured out their next step. The effect turns out to have limited impact. Much like a terminally ill person getting a lift from the drugs only to resume their decline.

Delta;

There are many structural shifts that carried Australia in the past 30 years. Most people picked them. Dual income families, immigration, globalisation, financial deregulation etc. Does that mean it's all over?


Duel income families became a necessity as subsidies were removed and inflation overtook wage growth around the mid 80's. Immigration is a double edged sword that has proven time again to not add anything to an economy. Victoria's coming to that realisation as it's GDP/person falls. Globalisation simply saw the export of manufacturing jobs and exporting of technology and IP. Manufacturing has been gutted as a result. Deregulation just gave the bankster more access to the cookie jar. The illusion of wealth is backstopped by a mountain of debt.

The 'Asian Century' label is a myth concocted by polies to channel into sound bites for the sheeple. We've trading with them for yonks and their economies have shown to be fragile and volatile. Over 50% of exports go to China, Japan and Korea.

Delta's is a nice little speech but it's a look in the rearview mirror to see where you're going approach. The past has never been a predictor of the future. Overoptimism, hopium and blind faith will only take you so far. The challenges coming down the pipeline in the near future are immense and decades of waffling by governments has achieved absolutely nothing to change our course. We're more locked in than ever.
 
Hi Freckle.

What did you mean by out of the rat race?
Taking a break from work?
Or do you mean you've converted your investments to cash?

All of the above yes. Have a personal project building a luxury motorhome. I'm opting out in style :D. It'll put another 200k of equity in my back pocket for a little over a years work.

Same as this one
$_75.JPG


I always thought the rat race was the relentless spending on consumer goods, cars, expensive PPOR and the hard work and long commute that is needed to sustain your spending, not the investing or putting money away for retirement that happens here.

Lived in Sydney for 8 years.. now that's a rat race. Spent the next 6 in the Outback. Back in Christchurch now and even this small city is getting to me.

With your views, I'm curious what your investment strategy is - how will you bypass this apocalypse you see coming and still make enough to retire early?

I haven't really worked in years. Retirement isn't something I've ever contemplated. My retirement day will be followed shortly by my death notice.

My investment strategy is based around my own abilities to make money when i need it. It's not to be the wealthiest person in the rest home. When the SHTF money and houses may not offer you much at all. Nobody will really bypass it but one of the reasons I moved back to NZ was because it was probably the safest most capable countries in the world to cope with what's coming.
 
The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

FFS give it up already, is anyone else here shoving their agenda down your throat?

No, we get it, you are scared sghitless of "whats coming".

Tried to reason with you from other perspectives but you wont have a bar of it and then abuse people for the way they are conversing with you.

That's why I have zero respect for any of your codswallop because it's like a few of the more recent trolls who have dropped in lately. It's all negativity no matter how much positivity is being pushed back and shown to be working.

Go to your bunker while the rest of us live.
Wish you good luck in your "endeavour" to stay safe. Take care, goodbye, thats the last from me I wont bother anymore as all it seems to do is bring forth more derision. You get back what you put in .
 
Nice motorhome Freckle!

I'm thinking of doing up a VW Kombi and start looking for a new rat race....one where you don't have to work so hard. Is Nimbin still on the map?
 
The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

FFS give it up already, is anyone else here shoving their agenda down your throat?

ROFL... Your presence is purely voluntary. Nobody's twisting your arm or anybody elses. There's million of threads and you 'choose' to hang out here. Must be a masochist.

No, we get it, you are scared sghitless of "whats coming".

Absolutely. And blaise attitudes like yours scare me the most.


Go to your bunker while the rest of us live.

Luxury motorhome if you please ;)


Take care, goodbye, thats the last from me I wont bother anymore as all it seems to do is bring forth more derision. You get back what you put in .

In the Pilbara if you sooked they gave you a pair of pink shorts to wear with 'Harden Up Princess' branded across the backside. They gave me a pair after a I returned back to work from a heart attack.
 
25 years ago, Japan also entered the same wilderness and never recovered. On the opposite end, there are examples all around the world of economic and property markets crashing but powering back up and onwards in a short time such as USA, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, UK, Canada, Norway etc.
Some good points in your post, but you may want to take a look at how similar China's demographics are to Japan's from 25 years ago when starting their economic funk.

Also if we are heading into the 'Asian Century' (undoubtedly we are, but that doesn't mean we can't have turbulent decades as it plays out), you might like to consider their cultural norms of the saving and wealth preservation variety... a richer Asia is likely to lead to a higher Gold price ;)
 
Also if we are heading into the 'Asian Century' (undoubtedly we are, but that doesn't mean we can't have turbulent decades as it plays out),

Jo we've been in the so called Asian Century now for around 300 years or more. Ever since the colonial powers forged sea routes into asia.

The reality is that hopes are predicated on an emerging China that will somehow drive global trade growth for the next several decades. However, you can't look at China in isolation as many do. If its global markets suffer so follows China. Rebalancing its economy to a more consumerist one comes with its own risks, drawbacks and side effects. None of which is adequately discussed or researched.

Just the sheer number of cars being added to the national fleet is staggering let alone the energy requirements and pollution that emits. Throw in competition for fuel energy in the coming years and the Asian Century aka China Century may be one that few envisage.

Personally I don't see it offering us anything more than we already have right now. We may well end up with much less. Time will tell.
 
Nice motorhome Freckle!

I'm thinking of doing up a VW Kombi and start looking for a new rat race....one where you don't have to work so hard. Is Nimbin still on the map?

You may be about 40 years too late,but you will fit straight in there with the pop-top-kombi ,saw a purple kombi in the main street in Nimbin last time we went for a drive down tha t way,,and the bloke inside had a blow up doll in the front seat,don't know what he was up too..
 
Jo we've been in the so called Asian Century now for around 300 years or more. Ever since the colonial powers forged sea routes into asia.
I see the Asian century as one where China's GDP exceeds that of America (adjusted for purchasing power that's reportedly occurred this year, but still a way off in real terms). With this will come a larger influence on the global economy, financial system, trade, etc. That doesn't mean that it's going to be all rainbows and lollipops. We may very well be seeing peak economic prosperity in Australia with this unprecedented mining investment boom which is climaxing as we speak... or China may manage their transition more smoothly than we think and we all end up living in shoeboxes as Deltaberry speculates.
 
We may very well be seeing peak economic prosperity in Australia with this unprecedented mining investment boom which is climaxing as we speak...
However, the next mining boom is less than 10 yrs away... India is expected to overtake China as the largest coal importer by 2025. All that investment will really pay off over the next couple of decades.
 
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