China to blow up this year...
- Thread starter DanielG
- Start date
I dont think Daniel ever said it was "his guy" . Its relative to say "looking" also. Having something pushed in your face would come under "looking". As is noticing something briefly.
Daniel the bulls will always undermine your thoughts here. You have to be omnibelvolent and omnipresent before they will give you a break.
But at least its not a triade of disrespect that you could find on **** . The jabs here are smart yet respectfully puckish.Fact of the matter is no genius here knows. And trust me there are some really intelligent people here. If they did know everything they wouldnt be hedging there bets and go ALL in.
Im not putting money on it and Its highly unlikely(Gee where have i heard that before) but im hoping for a crash in China.
edit: (wow "that" other forums name is a swear word??)
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I'm doing quite nicely, thanks, by being bearish property. I'm having a ball on the stock market.
So show some respect please. LOL
all these shortsighted ideas on how to "protect yourself" from the "imminent collapse".....what about "ways to profit" from the "imminent collapse"....?
all it means is that the big boys will seek other asset classes to invest in - if China sinks, gold will spike. Aussie RE will bubble (along with Singas / South Korea) as Chinese investors seek other markets.
BAD news short term - GREAT news long term.
f**k protecting myself - show me how to profit from it.
See attached for a review of China imbalances - pretty bearish. This is the doc referenced in this article http://www.businessday.com.au/business/the-china-bubble-20100412-s34b.html
I'm pretty sure i saw an article in the Australian last weekend interviewing people buying into Melbourne property market, one buyer was from China who was buying here because they couldn't afford prices at home.....
I'm pretty sure i saw an article in the Australian last weekend interviewing people buying into Melbourne property market, one buyer was from China who was buying here because they couldn't afford prices at home.....
hellllloooooooooooooo?
To profit from China's (possible) collapse would not be easy.
For one thing, you have no way of knowing what form it will take and whether it will be just a speed bump or over the cliff. For another, you do not know when so you can't simply decide "Cash is King" and just wait like a vulture in a tree. You might starve waiting. Anyone taking that approach to RE cops hell on these boards.
But if you want to have a punt chose US assets which will appreciate reduced competition such as HP or Motorola. Quality Japanese manufacturers could do well. Even US property may boom as manufacturing increases and US manufacturing isn't dead, just quite ill.
I know I'm not going to go 100% into BHP and switch off my 'puter. I will continue to "work" small cap miners who are not dependent on China. They fell during the GFC and will do so again if there is a second event, but I won't be geared into them.
For one thing, you have no way of knowing what form it will take and whether it will be just a speed bump or over the cliff. For another, you do not know when so you can't simply decide "Cash is King" and just wait like a vulture in a tree. You might starve waiting. Anyone taking that approach to RE cops hell on these boards.
But if you want to have a punt chose US assets which will appreciate reduced competition such as HP or Motorola. Quality Japanese manufacturers could do well. Even US property may boom as manufacturing increases and US manufacturing isn't dead, just quite ill.
I know I'm not going to go 100% into BHP and switch off my 'puter. I will continue to "work" small cap miners who are not dependent on China. They fell during the GFC and will do so again if there is a second event, but I won't be geared into them.
bah put ya self out there SF. Im pretty sure america will have a V shaped return. Not a sharp one but a V none the less. 2ish years. Few start stalls here and there but still.
Small cap miner...precious metals? Energys the big money maker for the long term IMO. All forms. I see another dot.com also... little birdy told me
bah put ya self out there SF. Im pretty sure america will have a V shaped return. Not a sharp one but a V none the less. 2ish years. Few start stalls here and there but still.
Small cap miner...precious metals? Energys the big money maker for the long term IMO. All forms. I see another dot.com also... little birdy told me
'v-shaped' recovery on a view point going through 2010: yes definately
longer than this: i dont know, i still have my doubts.
Its why i want to be liquid, i prefer to have exposure to liquid investment assets rather than illiquid ones.
Reeco, my mid-cap miner has a market cap 70% of Lihir's. I bought when it was an explorer. I expect it to be a one mil oz/y producer within 2 years.
Had a good night in Toronto. I have made 200% on my original stake in the last 5 days for a total 1570% gain. Santos is 6.55% up by contrast (shorter time frame, admittedly). BTW I believe in peak oil, I just don't know how to profit by it at this time. Maybe later.
I'm 68 tomorrow and have neither time nor patience for the long term..
Had a good night in Toronto. I have made 200% on my original stake in the last 5 days for a total 1570% gain. Santos is 6.55% up by contrast (shorter time frame, admittedly). BTW I believe in peak oil, I just don't know how to profit by it at this time. Maybe later.
I'm 68 tomorrow and have neither time nor patience for the long term..
Sunfish,you should hire out the local RSL centre,target all the unemployed 0ver 51 ex public service men who retired with above 500k,, buy and soap box and charge them 5k throw in a few copied cd's 1570%Reeco, my mid-cap miner has a market cap 70% of Lihir's. I bought when it was an explorer. I expect it to be a one mil oz/y producer within 2 years.
Had a good night in Toronto. I have made 200% on my original stake in the last 5 days for a total 1570% gain. Santos is 6.55% up by contrast (shorter time frame, admittedly). BTW I believe in peak oil, I just don't know how to profit by it at this time. Maybe later.
I'm 68 tomorrow and have neither time nor patience for the long term..
in 5 days,there must be room for that after storm went belly up in the Nth Qld,happy birthday willair..its been a while .. but this seemed like an interesting topic close to heart .. so thought i'll have a go with some analysis..
DG, yes there have been increasing number of reports about big bubble in lil china .. chanos a china bear seems to be quoted regularly in various articles. Nothing like media help to assist one's own position ..
My first question in all of this would be, why is Chanos publicly making emotional comments such as "China is on a treadmill to hell .. 1000 time dubai” ?? Is he a kind hearted fellow looking out for everyone else? If so why not simply donate his billions to the poor and help famine etc ? If he really had such in depth analysis he would be charging CEOs/businesses millions for this, not publicly ranting emotional statements to fire up the public ... Unless he stands to somehow make even more through his public rants .... In short he has his own interests..
To your direct question .. if this scenario does play out impact on australia will be big. Many of the contracts are future long term contracts not starting for at least a few years and lasting for 10 - 20 year timeframe. Exports, sentiment/confidence, retail spending, banking/loans, services etc will all take a hit. Generally speaking for RE prices it will also be negative (like late 2008 early 2009). It will be difficult for govt to apply more stimulus this time around..
Now thats done, lets delve a bit deeper. What does china will explode even mean? I think its very subjective ... I thought they imploded in 2008 , post olympics for 2 qtrs? Imports / exports collapsed, tens of millions unemployed, stockmarket dropped by ~ 70%, shipping stopped to near standstill, freight and port rates collapsed to levels not seen.. ever, 2008Q4 was lowest in decade or more, countless factories closed, deflation for few qtrs (all of this was reported by media at the time).
Have they boomed so much in year the media thinks they are ready to have a once in generation implosion/explosion again .. within 2 years?? .. wow
Then came the stimulus, same as most other countries. Note: in my personal opinion i was very very impressed with china stimulus when it came out in late 2008 and also how they handled the situation vs any other country ... Sure some of the loans went to speculation at various levels including property.. gee well where did the aussie stimulus go (much to retailers hence china , and to banks to shore up the balance sheets)?? what about the US one.. to buy subprime mortgages etc from banks??
much of the chinese stimulus was about bringing already planned infra projects forward by few years .. this is what media reported back in early 2009 .. At the time many of the analysts made comments similar to "china stimulus will not work because it is simply about bringing forward projects that are already planned, its not new money / projects hence it wont be effective" ...
i didnt buy such analysis back then , in fact i did the opposite , and i dont buy the rubbish analysis now..
i would rather invest in a country where the stimulus resulted in productive improvement and there is something to show for it like rail network, hydro dams, and buildings than bank balances that were -1 trillion and now showing -300 billion ...
and we havent even started talking about demographics, savings rate, productivity gains, GDP gains, currency, loan ratios for prop investment, trade surpluses etc ...
and lastly they already started restricting the loose policy starting in late 2009 .. another sign of good economic management and shows they saw the heat and responded accordingly.. i just remembered in late 2009 when the govt did start reigning in the loose policy much of them media was commenting "its too early, chinese economy will implode without stimulus".. and now few months late the same media are saying "chinese policy is too loose , there are bubbles, treadmill to hell"... ohh how the world changes completely every second in the world of media.. looking back who got it right ..consistently..their govt or our media??
hailing originally from the 'other new superpower' based on anecdotal evidence i can say the rise of chinese property prices is not unique... before making such comments i suggest media and analysts do some more long term reserach e.g. prices for last few decades .. i suppose it doesnt take much to write opinions, or be an 'analyst' published in media...
well thats my 2c .. hope that helps..
Reeco, my mid-cap miner has a market cap 70% of Lihir's. I bought when it was an explorer. I expect it to be a one mil oz/y producer within 2 years.
Had a good night in Toronto. I have made 200% on my original stake in the last 5 days for a total 1570% gain. Santos is 6.55% up by contrast (shorter time frame, admittedly). BTW I believe in peak oil, I just don't know how to profit by it at this time. Maybe later.
I'm 68 tomorrow and have neither time nor patience for the long term..
For energy...im thinking mainly gases. Alot of nations are locking in alot of long term contracts. There doing it swiftly too. So much leverage politically and economically with energy.
Know explorers SF that deal primarily in liquids/gases? Im guessing there arent many since its a tad heavy in the cost department. Cant rock up to a joint like small cap miners and drill cores of the back of a Hilux.
Since the discovery near Gingin went off im guessing theres a bit of heat in the market at the mo for explorers. Might hold off till it dies a little if its the case
ooooh! do elaborate!!!
Great thread!, the more I have thought about the idea the more I came to understand that he who owns the most physical gold or silver wins if the paper dollars collapse, it is as simple as that.
And China holds it.
I think many might look back and say why didn`t I listen as far as holding physical gold and silver is concerned.
Fact is next to nobody owns it and when you ask them why they shrug.
Whatever the hordes actually do, look elsewhere but keep your ear to the ground.
My guess is the stockmarkets will implode, soon.
And China holds it.
I think many might look back and say why didn`t I listen as far as holding physical gold and silver is concerned.
Fact is next to nobody owns it and when you ask them why they shrug.
Whatever the hordes actually do, look elsewhere but keep your ear to the ground.
My guess is the stockmarkets will implode, soon.
Empire. Was a favourite with daytraders and they had field day with the stock. Forgot the deets but at a stab there talking an ok number of barrels per day (300ish). But as with any stock its been ramped through the roof on the find. Alot of speculation about whats out there now.
You don't say!
I have a small parcel ($5K odd) of EGO at .007. Went and had a look and its now doubled up. I'd forgotten about that parcel but might unload it now and then I won't have to rememver I've got it any more...
Cheers,
Michael
Some of the start-ups once you look into them from every angle
might only be in that scale of things only at the core sample stage
there is still a lot bigger large scale mines still to be found in Qld,
just a matter of time..willair..
